MLB Wednesday best bets: Red Sox to get revenge vs. Rockies

We suffered through some deja vu Tuesday night. Once again, we won two of three best bets, with the lone defeat coming from a pitcher recording one more out than we bargained for.

Still, it was a profitable evening that helped push our record to 14-5 since the beginning of last week.

Let's take a closer look at three more plays that stand out as we try and keep the hot streak alive.

Rockies (+200) @ Red Sox (-240)

Austin Gomber is currently one of baseball's worst pitchers. He owns a ridiculous 10.02 ERA over the past month and his underlying profile is plastered with red flags.

He's walking as many batters as he's striking out, his FIP (8.84) is sky-high, and his hard-hit rate sits at exactly 50%. The level of pitching we've seen is unfathomably bad.

The Red Sox are very much capable of exploiting Gomber's struggles. For one, they slot seventh in xwOBA versus lefties over the past month. They're right up there with the Braves and Rangers against left-handed pitching.

Fenway may not be Coors Field, but it's a very hitter-friendly park as well. The Red Sox should be able to knock Gomber all around the diamond and pile up extra-base hits.

The Rockies will have a very tough time keeping up against Garrett Whitlock. He's in very good form, sporting an ERA and FIP below 3.6 over the past 30 days.

Whitlock has done a good job of limiting walks, hard contact, and fly balls. Those are all good signs, especially for somebody pitching at Fenway.

Colorado has struggled quite a bit against righties on the road. The Rockies sit in the bottom five in barrel rate versus righties and near the basement in slugging. Their xwOBA is nothing to get excited about, either.

I expect the Red Sox to get to Gomber early and often, while Whitlock should be able to put forth a quality start. Look for Boston to avoid the sweep by winning in decisive fashion.

Bet: Red Sox -1.5 (-120)

Josiah Gray under 17.5 outs (-115)

Gray started the season very strongly, going over the number in five of his first nine appearances while conceding two runs or fewer in seven of those games. He put forth quality start after quality start and logged a lot of innings.

However, we've seen a noticeable dip of late. His efficiency has decreased as his strikeout numbers have fallen and his walk rate has increased (he's allowed 3.6 free passes per start over the past five).

Throwing more pitches per out has taken away from Gray's ability to pitch deep into games. He's averaged 15.8 outs per start over the last five and gone under the number in four straight.

Although Gray has faced teams like the Phillies and Braves during that period, he also failed to get the job done against the Tigers and Royals.

The Astros haven't been lethal at the plate by any means, but their numbers are mostly middle of the pack. Plus, they have a few guys who can really do damage in Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, and Kyle Tucker.

I don't see Gray lasting six innings in this game.

Reid Detmers under 16.5 outs (-105)

Detmers has about the worst matchup a left-handed pitcher could ask for. The Rangers are lethal against lefties. Lethal. They rank at or near the top of the league in pretty much every category.

Be it wOBA, ISO, walk rate, hard-hit percentage, batting average, or runs scored, the Rangers grade out extremely well across the board.

That spells trouble for Detmers, who isn't an innings eater at the best of times. He's gone over this number only four times spanning 11 starts. and those successes came against the likes of the Cubs, Royals, and Twins - much lesser-hitting clubs, particularly versus lefties.

Detmers has completed only six innings once all year. It's not like the Angels have grown accustomed to him pitching deep into games. Pulling the plug on him after, say, five innings wouldn't throw a wrench into their usual strategy.

The Rangers will grind out their share of hits and walks, and they probably won't strike out very often. This probably won't be a lengthy start for Detmers.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.