MLB Wednesday best bets: Expect fireworks in Los Angeles
We have a full day of baseball on the docket Wednesday, with 14 games slated to keep us busy.
Let's waste no time getting to our best bets.
Patrick Corbin and Noah Syndergaard are scheduled to take the mound in this game, which is about as good a matchup as we can ask for when chasing runs.
Corbin owns a 4.88 ERA on the season, and even that feels generous. He consistently allows hits in bulk, finding himself in trouble more innings than not; he's conceded seven hits or more in eight of his 11 starts thus far.
With the potency of this Dodgers lineup - the team ranks third in runs and second in home runs - allowing a ton of quality contact is unlikely to bode well.
Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, J.D. Martinez, and the rest of the Dodgers' best bats should have a field day.
That said, Washington is in a good spot to notch its fair share of runs.
Syndergaard is nothing more than a name at this point in his career. He owns a 6.28 ERA, is three games under .500 for a top-tier Dodgers team, and boasts a pitching profile littered with red flags.
None of those red flags is more concerning than his inability to limit hard contact. He's allowed hard contact more than 45% of the time over the past 30 days - one of the worst marks in MLB.
The Nationals rank 12th in wOBA against righties over the past couple of weeks and very rarely strike out. There should be a lot of balls - hard-hit ones, at that - put in play in this game.
Expect a 7-4 type of matchup, which should comfortably push this game over the number.
Bet: Over 9.5 (-110)
James Kaprielian under 16.5 outs (-120)
Kaprielian has been one of the worst pitchers in the majors this season. He's appeared in nine games, started six, and has yet to earn a victory. That's not just because the Athletics rank 29th in runs and have provided him with little run support.
Kaprielian owns a putrid 8.46 ERA and has conceded just under two baserunners per inning. He allows a lot of hard contact and struggles mightily to keep the ball on the ground.
That's a recipe for disaster against anybody, let alone a team like the Braves. Atlanta ranks fifth in runs, third in homers, and second in slugging on the season. The team hits for a ton of power and has a deep lineup with few easy outs.
Kaprielian has struggled to stay in games all season, earning 15 outs or fewer in five of six starts. He's unlikely to buck the trend and complete close to six innings against this Braves offense - especially after it mustered only three runs over the first two games of the series. Oakland can only stem the tide for so long.
Pete Alonso over 1.5 total bases (+135)
Nola has a five-pitch mix, but his two most utilized pitches - by far - are the four-seam fastball and the curveball. Alonso feasts on both.
Alonso posted a .382 wOBA and a hard-hit rate of nearly 50% against the fastball last season. He was even better against the curve, recording a .453 wOBA and a batting average just under .360.
Given his success against those pitches and his general caliber of play, it's no surprise Alonso has crushed Nola in the past, hitting .349 with five homers and three doubles against him.
Finally, Alonso owns a .317 ISO against righties this season, the eighth-best output among 230 MLB players with 100-plus at-bats against right-handed pitching.
He has the power to get there with one swing and the average to make a multi-hit game a more than reasonable ask.
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.
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