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MLB Wednesday best bets: Yankees to start strong vs. Blue Jays

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We swept the board last night, cashing our under in Los Angeles along with a pair of player props.

We'll look to build on our strong 5-1 start to the week with three plays for Wednesday's slate.

Yankees (-120) @ Blue Jays (+100)

Powered by big performances from Aaron Judge, the Yankees have taken the first two games of their series in Toronto. There's no guarantee they'll make it three in a row, but they seem poised to start strong in Game 3 against the Blue Jays.

Taking the mound is Yankees ace Gerrit Cole, who's been nothing short of exceptional this season: He's conceded two runs or fewer in seven of eight starts, his ERA sits at 2.22, he's striking out nearly 10 batters per nine innings, and he's doing a great job keeping the ball on the ground.

The Blue Jays - like any team - are unlikely to enjoy much success with Cole on the mound. Their new-look offense has faced him once already this season and failed to muster a run in nearly six innings - par for the course against Cole.

Though Toronto has a solid starter to duel Cole, Chris Bassitt is several tiers below his New York counterpart. Bassitt has pitched 16 innings of shutout baseball over his last two games to lower his ERA to 3.49. But a 4.87 FIP and unsustainably low BABIP of .200 both indicate he hasn't pitched as well as his ERA suggests.

If Bassitt has been getting lucky, the Yankees are a team that can force the hand of regression. Their offense is starting to hit its stride, as New York ranks second in ISO and third in wOBA against right-handed pitching over the last couple of weeks.

With the better starting pitcher and a more in-form offense, there's value in backing the Yankees.

That said, a wager on the first five innings is more sensible than a bet on the entire game. For a five-inning bet, New York will have a pitching advantage throughout. What's more, a tie game would result in a refund, providing us with some insurance. And we won't have to worry about a Yankees bullpen that ranks in the bottom half of the league in FIP over the past two weeks.

Bet: Yankees F5 ML (-115)

Kodai Senga under 16.5 outs (-105)

Senga has been disappointing in his first season with the Mets. He owns a 4.14 ERA and has pitched more than 5.1 innings only twice through seven starts, with the exceptions coming against poor offensive teams in the Marlins and Rockies.

He's walked batters at a disturbing 14% clip, handing out at least three free passes in all but one start. Senga's FIP of nearly 5.0 also suggests he's pitching worse than his underwhelming ERA indicates. Any way you slice it, he hasn't been great.

That seems unlikely to change Wednesday against the Rays. Tampa Bay leads the league in nearly every major offensive category and is a disciplined team that walks at an above average clip. The Rays won't be swinging out of their boots or chasing garbage outside the zone to let Senga off the hook.

Senga will have to grind his way through this Rays lineup. Even if he's able to limit hard contact and walks, expect numerous lengthy at-bats to keep him from going more than five innings.

Adley Rutschman over 1.5 total bases (+145)

Rutschman is a beast against right-handed pitchers, especially when playing at Camden Yards. Rutschman leads a jumpstart Orioles team in wOBA (.436), ISO (.302), OPS (1.051), and several other key metrics while playing at home.

Righties have had no answer for Rutschman, and Griffin Canning is unlikely to fare much better. He owns a 6.38 ERA on the year and has allowed a hard-hit rate of nearly 40%. Opposing batters are crushing him.

It's also worth noting Canning throws a lot of four-seam fastballs - which Rutschman excels against.

Between a hitter-friendly park and a struggling opposing arm, the stars are aligning for a productive night from Rutschman.

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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