Cy Young rankings: Reigning champs out for fresh faces in both AL, NL

Welcome to the first edition of theScore's 2023 Cy Young rankings, where we look at the top five pitchers in each league. Let's run through some of the best performances during the season's early stages, which notably omits the reigning winners with Sandy Alcantara struggling and Justin Verlander making his Mets debut this week. Odds courtesy Barstool Sportsbook and theScore Bet.

American League

5. Jacob deGrom, Rangers

The Rangers ace is currently sidelined with somewhat ominous-sounding inflammation in his right elbow. It's not what you want to hear in the first year of a five-year, $185-million contract from a pitcher who's missed substantial time over the last two seasons. That said, deGrom had been otherworldly, and he deserves recognition. His 39.1% strikeout rate tops the AL, and his 3.5% walk rate ranks third. And even though deGrom's pitched just over 30 innings, he still sits fifth in MLB by FanGraphs WAR. He also places in at least the 94th percentile in expected batting average, expected ERA, whiff rate, and chase rate. On a per-start basis, deGrom is still king. It's just a matter of how many starts the Rangers can get out of him.

4. Shohei Ohtani, Angels

Ohtani still has the second-best odds to win the award, and he's definitely impressed with a 38.6% strikeout rate that ranks behind only deGrom and Spencer Strider. Unfortunately, he's getting hit really hard, coughing up seven homers while also walking 11.8% of opponents. Ohtani's stuff is so dominant that he can more than make this work with an ERA that's still in the top 20 of MLB. He'll fly up these rankings if he corrects his mistakes.

3. Luis Castillo, Mariners

Since joining the Mariners last year, Castillo has seemingly bloomed into the ace he always appeared to be on the cusp of becoming. A driving factor in this is largely due to him not leaning on his changeup - once considered his best pitch - nearly as often. Castillo threw the changeup 30% of the time in 2021, and now he's relying on it half as often and less frequently than his slider. It's paying dividends, as opposing batters are swinging more than they ever have against Castillo, leading to more chases and whiffs. When he gets hit, he's getting hit hard, ranking in the 12th percentile in hard-hit rate and 48th percentile in barrel rate. However, he's only allowed one homer this campaign. So far, it's all working.

2. Sonny Gray, Twins

Make way for Gray. The two-time All-Star is undefeated and boasts an MLB-leading 0.77 ERA that's lower than almost every starter's WHIP - including his own (1.06). The 33-year-old righty has previously shown an ability to dominate like this, finishing seventh in NL Cy Young voting in 2019. But his introduction of a cutter - which he's throwing 21% of the time, third-most in his five-pitch repertoire - might be taking him to another level. On top of not yet allowing a homer, he ranks in the 81st percentile in both expected batting average and expected wOBA while ramping up his whiff rate to a career-best 13.4%. If Gray has truly unlocked something, he could be in the conversation all year.

1. Gerrit Cole, Yankees

Cole has put together seasons worthy of winning a Cy Young before, but he seems possessed and finally poised to fill that vacant spot on his mantle this year. It's pretty clear, at this point, that he's also the Yankees' MVP. The Bronx Bombers are undefeated when Cole takes the bump and are 10-15 in games the two-time All-Star doesn't pitch. He also hasn't allowed a homer yet and is one of two pitchers in the AL to toss a complete game shutout. Cole ranks in at least the 80th percentile in strikeout rate, chase rate, expected slugging, and expected ERA. When you add it all together, it puts the early-season target on Cole's back.

National League

5. Graham Ashcraft, Reds

There's a handful of pitchers worthy of squeaking into these rankings, with Pirates closer David Bednar and Braves lefty Max Fried among them. Still, we're going with the breakout Reds righty here. The 25-year-old owns a 2.00 ERA and ranks second in the NL by RA9-based WAR. Ashcraft isn't getting many swings and misses, and his walk rate is too high. But he's avoiding barrels and has held opponents to one homer while playing his home games in the very hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park.

4. Zack Wheeler, Phillies

Wheeler has not gotten the results we've come to expect, but all of the advanced metrics indicate he's just as dominant as ever. He's in the 80th percentile in strikeout rate, 84th in whiff rate, 85th in expected slugging, and 92nd in barrel rate. All of that comes together to equate to a FIP that ranks third in the NL behind only Zac Gallen and Strider. Wheeler could certainly stand to trim his walk rate, but he really just needs some things to break his way because the process still seems sound.

3. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers

Arguably the greatest pitcher of all time is turning back the clock. Kershaw hasn't been a Cy Young finalist since 2017, ending a seven-year stretch of finishing top five and winning three. There's been a couple of reasons for that, as the 35-year-old deals with diminished strikeout stuff while also battling injuries that prevented him from throwing more than 130 innings in consecutive years. But the future Hall of Famer is now healthy and preventing baserunners better than any other pitcher, recording an MLB-leading 0.76 WHIP. What's really impressive is that he's back to getting opposing hitters to expand the zone, posting a chase rate in the 96th percentile while limiting walks. Can Kershaw stay healthy and become the fifth pitcher ever to win at least four Cy Youngs?

2. Spencer Strider, Braves

Strider is following up an incredible breakout season in which he finished second in NL Rookie of the Year voting by being arguably even more dominant this campaign. His MLB-leading 41% strikeout rate among qualified starters is a number you'd expect only the most elite relievers to boast. While he's ramped up his already otherworldly K rates, he's also issued a few more free bases this year, walking 10.1% of opponents. However, it seems like that will even back out as Strider is throwing more pitches inside the zone than he did in 2022, and he's even getting more swings on pitches outside the zone as well. He tossed only 131 2/3 innings last year, so the biggest worry seems to be his workload.

1. Zac Gallen, Diamondbacks

Gallen was arguably the best pitcher in baseball in the second half of last season, and he's carrying that success over into this campaign. The righty is leading the NL in strikeouts and is behind only deGrom with a 32.1% strikeout-minus-walk rate. Gallen is doing an amazing job at controlling the things he can control, ranking in the 94th percentile in strikeout rate and 95th percentile in walk rate. The 27-year-old is beyond blooming into an ace and is now a proven one for a young and exciting D-Backs team that's been fun to root for in the early going.