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MLB Wednesday best bets: Astros to rebound vs. Rangers

Bob Levey / Getty Images Sport / Getty

We have a loaded day of baseball to look forward to Wednesday, with games scheduled to run for nearly 12 consecutive hours.

Let's look at a couple of plays that stand out from the pack.

Marlins (+140) @ Phillies (-165)

The Miami Marlins and Philadelphia Phillies played each other tough in an air-tight, low-scoring affair Tuesday.

The pitching matchup in the second game of the series between Trevor Rogers and Bailey Falter is nowhere close to the same caliber. Yet, the total is only one run higher. I think that's a mistake.

Rogers hasn't pitched well this season. While his FIP (4.41) is a little better than his putrid 5.37 ERA, it's by no means good. Opponents can take advantage of him, and we've seen that repeatedly by the Phillies.

He's survived just 11.1 innings over three starts against Philadelphia, conceding a whopping 15 runs in that time. Rogers got hit around (16 allowed) and struggled mightily with control in those contests, handing out 10 free passes to boot.

Making matters worse for Rogers is the fact Philadelphia is feasting on lefties. The club sits third in wOBA and hard-hit rate against left-handed pitchers since the beginning of August.

Given how well the Phillies are seeing the ball against lefties and their history of success against Rogers, it seems reasonable to expect another tough outing for him.

Luckily for Miami, Falter is hardly untouchable. He's pitched much worse than his numbers suggest over the past month (4.26 FIP versus 2.25 ERA), and it's only a matter of time before that catches up with him.

The Marlins aren't a good offensive team by any stretch. However, they profile fairly well against Falter. He gives up a lot of fly balls, and the Marlins lead the majors in fly balls generated against lefties since Aug. 1.

Some balls will drop favorably if Miami can consistently get them in the air. Perhaps one or two will make their way over the fence.

With the Phillies' offense in a strong spot and such a low total, the Marlins shouldn't have to contribute much to get this game over the number.

Bet: Over 7.5 (-120)

Rangers (+230) @ Astros (-280)

The Houston Astros tossed up a bit of a dud Tuesday, generating only two earned runs and failing to create one over the final six innings of a 4-3 defeat.

Led by their offense, I like the Astros to rebound in a big way against Cole Ragans and the Texas Rangers.

The 24-year-old is going through a bit of an adjustment period, to say the least. Over the last 30 days, Ragans has recorded a 6.08 ERA and 7.46 FIP while walking as many batters as he's struck out.

Ragans has also given up a lot of fly balls, which isn't exactly a recipe for success against a Houston team that ranks fifth in homers and excels against left-handed arms.

Only the St. Louis Cardinals, Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles Dodgers, and Phillies have posted higher wOBAs against left-handed pitchers since the beginning of August.

It's also worth noting that Ragans is a fastball dominant pitcher, throwing four-seamers 45% of the time.

The Astros hit fastballs exceptionally well, with key players like Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Trey Mancini, Jose Altuve, and Alex Bregman posting eye-popping numbers against that pitch.

Cristian Javier owns a 3.76 FIP over the last month and has effectively limited hard contact. If he can keep Texas' offense to a manageable number, Houston should have little trouble picking up a multi-run victory.

Bet: Astros -1.5 (-130)

Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.

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