MLB Thursday best bets: Blue Jays to continue winning ways vs. Red Sox
We have a small MLB slate on the docket Thursday with only six games scheduled.
But there's still value on the board to be had. Let's take a look at it as we try to build on Tuesday's 2-0 night.
Blue Jays (-165) @ Red Sox (+140)
The Toronto Blue Jays enter this game riding high - against the Boston Red Sox and, well, everyone else.
Toronto has won six of its last seven games, including five by at least three runs.
Perhaps more impressively, the Blue Jays own a 12-3 record against the Red Sox this season; they've feasted on their division rivals regardless of their form heading into a series.
Taking the mound for Toronto on Thursday will be Kevin Gausman, who's pitched at an All-Star level this season.
Gausman owns a 2.30 FIP and 2.97 ERA over the last month. He's retired a lot of batters without giving them a chance to put the ball in play, striking out nearly 10 per nine innings over that span. He's also done a great job of limiting hard contact.
Though Boston has some scary bats in its lineup, it has struggled against righties as a whole. The team sits 19th in wOBA and ISO in August.
That trend is unlikely to change against Gausman, who's conceded just four runs in 26 innings of work against the Red Sox this season.
The Blue Jays have a strong chance of limiting Boston's offense with Gausman on the hill, but it's unlikely the Red Sox can respond in kind with Kutter Crawford set to start. He's pitching very poorly right now, posting a 5.67 FIP and 6.15 ERA over the last month.
Crawford has struggled mightily with the long ball, which is no coincidence given he ranks dead last among Thursday's projected starters in hard-hit rate allowed during that stretch.
Allowing a steady dose of hard-hit balls is a recipe for disaster, especially against the likes of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer, Matt Chapman, and the other power bats in Toronto's lineup.
Look for the Blue Jays to stay hot in Boston.
Bet: Blue Jays -1.5 (+100)
Reds (+270) @ Phillies (-340)
August has not been kind to Cincinnati Reds starter Justin Dunn. The 26-year-old has allowed nine runs - and five homers - in just 13.2 innings of work.
The underlying metrics suggest those poor outputs are well deserved. Dunn has posted a terrible 8.52 FIP and walked nearly as many batters as he has struck out.
No projected starter has allowed flyballs more frequently in August, which might have something to do with Dunn's inability to keep the ball inside the park.
A date with the Philadelphia Phillies is unlikely to help matters. They've hit right-handed pitchers very well in August, ranking sixth in wOBA and fifth in ISO.
The Phillies also slot ninth in flyball rate and third in hard-hit rate; they excel in areas where Dunn is struggling.
In the hitter-friendly confines of Citizens Bank Park, things probably won't end well for Dunn.
The Reds' offense, meanwhile, should be in for a world of hurt. Cincinnati sits 22nd in wOBA and 27th in ISO against righties in August. That spells trouble against a talent like Aaron Nola.
Nola has pitched better over the past 30 days than his 3.77 ERA would suggest: He's posted a 2.57 FIP while striking out nearly 11 batters per nine innings.
He should be in line for a quality start, putting the Phillies well on their way to a multi-run victory.
Bet: Phillies -1.5 (-145)
Todd Cordell is a sports betting writer at theScore. Be sure to follow him on Twitter @ToddCordell.