ALDS preview, best bets: Astros, Rays in trouble as series favorites

The American League side of the MLB postseason bracket is complete after the Red Sox trounced the Yankees to set up an ALDS matchup with the Rays. Can Boston keep its postseason magic alive? And will the Astros reach their fifth consecutive ALCS, or can the White Sox pull off the (minor) upset?

No. 1 Rays (-160) vs. No. 4 Red Sox (+140)

Boston's wild-card victory Tuesday encapsulated everything that makes this team so dangerous in the postseason: a front-line ace in Nathan Eovaldi, who's clearly saved his best for the playoffs; power up and down the lineup, even without J.D. Martinez; and a bullpen that, while inconsistent at times this year, has the depth to cobble together innings behind a big lead.

The biggest takeaway was the development of Eovaldi, who averaged a season-high 98.5 mph on his fastball and threw 54 of his 71 pitches for strikes - including 12 swinging strikes - in Tuesday's 6-2 win. The Red Sox ace was the AL's most valuable pitcher by fWAR (5.6) and was particularly stout against the Rays, boasting a 2.39 ERA with a 10.6 K/9 in four meetings.

The Rays' staff lacks a clear anchor heading into this series, which could rear its ugly head. Tampa Bay's likely 1-2-3 starters against Boston have combined for 5 1/3 career innings and zero starts in the postseason, and the team's only two veteran options - Ryan Yarbrough (5.11 ERA) and Michael Wacha (5.05) - have been dreadful this year.

Manager Kevin Cash will surely call on the 'pen early and often if his young arms struggle, but we saw how quickly Boston's bats can blow up a seemingly deep bullpen with a barrage of long balls. On the other side, Red Sox starters Eduardo Rodriguez (4.74) and Chris Sale (3.16) have had their ups and downs, but they bring a combined 35 innings of postseason work to the table and only need to be passable to support this Boston lineup.

The Rays' offense deserves some praise after plating the fourth-most runs per game (5.29) in the regular season. Yet advanced metrics say the Red Sox have the edge there, too. Boston owns the third-highest wOBA (.333) and OPS (.777) of any team. Plus, the Red Sox rank second in hard-hit rate (42.5%), barrel rate (9.9%), average exit velocity (89.9 mph), and xSLG (.443) - slotting ahead of Tampa Bay's lineup in every area.

So, which side do you trust more? This Boston lineup has been more consistent this year with better advanced metrics, and its rotation is far more seasoned with a true bonafide ace taking the mound at least once in this series - which can't be said for the Rays. Home-field advantage and a safer bullpen can only go so far when the series price is this lopsided.

Pick: Red Sox +140

No. 2 Astros (-135) vs. No. 3 White Sox (+115)

Both of these teams are built similarly coming into the postseason - they each feature elite lineups with a former MVP surrounded by surging young talent, while their pitching staffs each include a former Cy Young winner and a cast of high-upside but inconsistent hurlers. When you dive into the numbers, though, it's hard to ignore Chicago's advantages.

Start at the plate, where Houston's collection of contact-friendly hitters have carried the team to at least the ALCS in four consecutive seasons. Kyle Tucker is the group's rising star, leading the 'Stros with a .917 OPS and a .557 slugging percentage in the regular season, though Yordan Alvarez (33 HR), Jose Altuve (31), and Carlos Correa (26) have some pop in their bats, too. That's to say nothing of former MVP runner-up Alex Bregman and batting title winner Yuli Gurriel (.319 average), who round out the AL's deepest lineup.

That group carried the Astros to the highest batting average (.267) and second-highest wOBA (.336) in the regular season. Houston swings at just 45.4% of pitches with an MLB-low 21% whiff rate, and its weak-contact rate is the third-lowest (3.9%) in the majors. Translation: If you want to beat this Astros lineup, you won't be able to do it by pitching to contact.

That's no problem for the White Sox, who boast the highest whiff rate (29.4%) and K/9 (10.2) in the majors. They also lead MLB in fWAR (27.1) thanks to a stellar rotation that, while not as sharp as it was midseason, is still as nasty as they come entering the playoffs.

Dylan Cease (2.2) and Lucas Giolito (1.9) rank third and fifth in the AL in fWAR since the All-Star break, respectively, while former Cy Young front-runners Lance Lynn and Carlos Rodon (who could be ready for Game 3) round out the most potent swing-and-miss staff in the bigs. Chicago's bullpen was stellar in the regular season and is peaking behind red-hot Liam Hendriks and Aaron Bummer, eight-time All-Star Craig Kimbrel, and a deep group of middle relievers.

The Astros' staff is far more uncertain, with Lance McCullers Jr. and Framber Valdez anchoring an effective but beatable stable of arms. Houston's starters ranked second in the AL in ERA (3.60) - just behind the White Sox (3.57) - but a pedestrian FIP (4.07) and xwOBA allowed (.308) tells a better story of this group. This team's bullpen is its weakest link, especially with deadline acquisition Kendall Graveman struggling since leaving the Mariners.

Chicago's lineup was decimated by injuries during the year but is peaking at the right time - since Sept. 1, five of the top 30 AL hitters in fWAR hail from this lineup, led by scorching hot Luis Robert (.343/.379/.611) and walk machine Yasmani Grandal (.310/.459/.548). The White Sox are the more talented team in this matchup and are finally putting it all together; getting them at plus-money is a gift.

Pick: White Sox +115