MLB home run leader odds, values: Robert has talent to cash as long shot
The MLB season is still six weeks away, but it's never too early to find value in the futures markets - especially one as volatile and long-shot friendly as the home run leader.
A year ago, Luke Voit mashed 22 homers in 60 games after being left off virtually every oddsboard - just ahead of long shots Jose Abreu (19) and Marcell Ozuna (18). There's clearly value in the field if you know where to look. That's where we come in.
Here are the odds for who will hit the most home runs in 2021 and our favorite value plays on the board:
| PLAYER | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Pete Alonso | +1000 |
| Mike Trout | +1000 |
| Joey Gallo | +1100 |
| Juan Soto | +1200 |
| Ronald Acuna Jr. | +1300 |
| Cody Bellinger | +1300 |
| Eloy Jimenez | +1500 |
| Matt Olson | +1800 |
| Bryce Harper | +2000 |
| Aaron Judge | +2000 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | +2000 |
| Yordan Alvarez | +2000 |
| Trevor Story | +2200 |
| Eugenio Suarez | +2200 |
| Miguel Sano | +2500 |
| Jorge Soler | +2500 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | +2500 |
| Matt Chapman | +2800 |
| Gleyber Torres | +2800 |
| Luke Voit | +2800 |
| Jose Abreu | +3000 |
| Rafael Devers | +3000 |
| Manny Machado | +3000 |
| Franmil Reyes | +3000 |
| Christian Yelich | +3000 |
| Nolan Arenado | +3300 |
| J.D. Martinez | +3300 |
| George Springer | +3300 |
| Marcell Ozuna | +3300 |
| Freddie Freeman | +4000 |
| Rhys Hoskins | +4000 |
| Jose Ramirez | +4000 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | +5000 |
| Max Muncy | +5000 |
| Luis Robert | +5000 |
Eugenio Suarez (+2200)
Only Mike Trout (101) has more home runs over the last three years than Suarez (98), who hit 15 of them in 2020 despite an overall down year at the plate for the Reds third baseman.
A brutal .214 BABIP can explain his career-worst .202 batting average, but his barrel rate (14.4%) and hard-hit rate (44.7%) were both higher than his 49-homer campaign in 2019. He also hit 13 home runs in his final 37 games as he recovered from offseason shoulder surgery, setting him up for another power surge in 2021.
Fernando Tatis Jr. (+2500)
On Wednesday, we highlighted Tatis' value as an MVP candidate in 2021. Leading the league in home runs would help his case. The Padres star hit 17 dingers a year ago - tied for fourth-most in MLB - and led the majors in average exit velocity (95.9 MPH), hard-hit rate (62.2%), and barrels (32).
He clearly has the power to pace the field, and it's reasonable to expect even more growth for the 22-year-old in the first year of his megadeal. Frankly, it's surprising he's not priced among the favorites.
Luis Robert (+5000)
I almost couldn't believe my eyes when I saw Robert's name listed as a 50-1 long shot. Is this the same guy who hit nine home runs in a 20-day span in 2020 and had six homers with an exit velocity of at least 110 MPH, tied for third-most in the majors?
Yes, Robert fell into a September slump when he fouled off too many fastballs and struggled against breaking balls. Don't expect his late-season struggles as a rookie to hamper him in his sophomore campaign. Even with the risks, the White Sox slugger is too good to ignore at a 50-1 price.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.