2021 NL MVP best bet, fade: Take Tatis Jr. in loaded field
I'll say it right now: The 2021 NL All-Star Team will be the most intimidating in baseball's history, should the game be played.
Taking a first glance at the MVP odds, it's alarming how deep the field is. When a player like Christian Yelich - who won the award in 2018 and is still at the height of his career - has the ninth-best odds, it makes for quite a daunting futures market.
Instead of trying to spread around a bunch of units across a large portfolio, we'll keep it light. Let's dive into the prices and give out our best bet and fade.
Odds to win NL MVP
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Mookie Betts (LAD) | +750 |
| Juan Soto (WSH) | +750 |
| Cody Bellinger (LAD) | +800 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | +850 |
| Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) | +1000 |
| Nolan Arenado (STL) | +1200 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | +1200 |
| Freddie Freeman (ATL) | +1200 |
| Christian Yelich (MIL) | +1500 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | +1500 |
| Corey Seager (LAD) | +1500 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | +2200 |
| Trevor Story (COL) | +2500 |
| Ozzie Albies (ATL) | +3000 |
| Kris Bryant (CHC) | +3000 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | +3000 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | +3000 |
| Anthony Rizzo (CHC) | +3000 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | +3300 |
| Javier Baez (CHC) | +3300 |
| Paul Goldschmidt (STL) | +3300 |
| Michael Conforto (NYM) | +4000 |
| Ian Happ (CHC) | +4000 |
| Rhys Hoskins (PHI) | +4000 |
| Max Muncy (LAD) | +4000 |
| Charlie Blackmon (COL) | +5000 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | +5000 |
| Eugenio Suarez (CIN) | +5000 |
| Trent Grisham (SD) | +5000 |
| Trea Turner (WSH) | +5000 |
| Jeff McNeil (NYM) | +5000 |
| Paul DeJong (STL) | +5000 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) | +7500 |
| Gavin Lux (LAD) | +7500 |
| Tommy Pham (SD) | +7500 |
| Mike Yastrzemski (SF) | +10000 |
| Josh Bell (PIT) | +10000 |
| Nicholas Castellanos (CIN) | +10000 |
| Willson Contreras (CHC) | +10000 |
| Mike Moustakas (CIN) | +10000 |
Bet - Fernando Tatis Jr. (+850)
Let the wild ride begin.
Soto's the front-runner of the up-and-coming crop of stars, but Tatis Jr. is gaining traction at an alarming pace. Tatis led the Padres in homers (17), runs (50), and steals (11) over 59 games on his way to a fourth-place MVP finish in 2020. Now, the 22-year-old's the center of attention on a team that's cemented itself as a contender after another busy off-season.
Machado isn't a bad look on the surface, either. After all, he's a much more attractive price (+2250), and he edged Tatis in a plethora of categories last campaign, including WAR, RBIs, batting average, slugging, and more. Machado's only 28 and nowhere near a rapid decline, but looking at the advanced metrics, it's easy to see why the market prefers Tatis.
The shortstop pulverized the ball in 2020.
Hard-hit percentage leaders
| Player | Hard-Hit % |
|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 62.2% |
| Miguel Sano (MIN) | 57.3% |
| Ronald Acuna Jr (ATL) | 57.0% |
| Corey Seager (LAD) | 55.9% |
| Eloy Jimenez (CWS) | 55.7% |
Barrels per plate appearance percentage leaders
| Player | Brls/PA% |
|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 12.5% |
| Corey Seager (LAD) | 12.1% |
| Juan Soto (WSH) | 11.7% |
| Eloy Jimenez (CWS) | 11.5% |
| Teoscar Hernandez (TOR) | 11.1% |
Any player who barrels up the ball that consistently and hits the ball that hard is going to reap the rewards. Tatis is going to put up some ridiculously stupid numbers in 2021. Bring on the dead ball.
Sell - Ketel Marte (+3000)
I can't help but think the market overshot this one. Marte finished fourth in MVP voting two seasons ago during the seemingly league-wide offensive surge but crashed down to Earth in 2020.
Will the Diamondbacks do enough to stick out this summer, sharing a division with both the Dodgers and Padres? Marte would need a legendary year, and I'm not investing in a player who lost a lot of juice at the plate last season.
If you're trying to get the best bang for your buck, this isn't it.
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.