Next offseason's free-agent market is slated to be flooded with top-tier shortstops. Today, we look at three who could be traded at some point this winter for various reasons, but mostly so their current teams can recoup something before letting them leave.
So, out of Javier Baez, Trevor Story, and Francisco Lindor, who is the most appealing?
The case for Baez
The hyper-athletic Baez is the best defender of the three options. In 2019 - his first season almost exclusively at shortstop - Baez was worth 26 defensive runs saved. Lindor and Story are solid defenders, but neither has been that slick. Baez is a wizard at applying tags - and avoiding them - and has shown an ability to play plus defense at third and second as well. Any team acquiring Baez can comfortably slot him in at a number of defensive positions and know they're in good hands.
There's no denying Baez has significant holes in his game. He strikes out a lot and rarely walks. A decent batting average has often buoyed his OBP, but he's a non-factor at the plate when he struggles with the stick, as he did in 2020. But what he lacks offensively, he more than makes up for with his glove.
Baez's offensive woes are a tad overblown. The OBP will never be all that impressive, but he hit 86 home runs and stole 42 bases from 2017-19 while batting .282 and slugging .525. He finished second in NL MVP voting in 2018 and won a long-awaited Gold Glove this past season. Baez was also a key reason the Cubs reached the 2016 World Series as he won the NLCS MVP after batting .318 and swiping a pair of bags while driving in five runs and scoring three over the six-game series. He's also the only player of this particular trio to have a championship ring.
While Colorado, Cleveland, and Chicago have openly expressed a desire to shed salary, the Indians and Rockies have also been clear about not accepting cents on the dollar for their star players even if their contracts are expiring. Meanwhile, the Cubs may also be shopping other expensive players, so packaging Baez with another name could result in a more ideal return even if he, on his own, is slightly less appealing.
The case for Story
Story is one of the most underappreciated stars in baseball, and it will stay that way until he earns the payday that's coming to him next winter.
He looked unbeatable and generated All-Star consideration almost immediately upon making the majors in 2016 after hitting six homers in his first four career games. By the time the Midsummer Classic rolled around, the rookie had collected 21 homers over 81 games, hitting .260/.329/.545. Still, he narrowly missed the All-Star Game. Why? People couldn't wrap their heads around the fact a non-elite prospect (Story ranked No. 11 among Rockies prospects in 2015) became a legitimate MLB superstar.
Not only did Story grow into a superstar, but he's arguably the best all-around shortstop in the game right now. Since the beginning of 2018, Story has earned a 123 wRC+, which is league- and park-adjusted to factor in the friendly confines of Coors Field. The only shortstops who've posted a better mark are Manny Machado - who now primarily plays third base and signed a 10-year, $300-million contract - and Xander Bogaerts, who landed a six-year, $120-million contract extension one year before being eligible for free agency.
Story added a new facet to his game in 2018: stolen bases, which he uses liberally. Only six players have swiped more bags than the two-time Silver Slugger over the past three seasons, and just one - Trea Turner - is a full-time shortstop. Story led the NL in steals last year.
That speed translates to elite defense as well, even among shortstops. Only Paul DeJong saved more runs than Story at the position over the past two years, according to FanGraphs' defense statistic. That's better than Baez (fifth) and Lindor (third).
Don't love those comparisons? That's fine. Let's take a look at Story's stats next to the numbers of another Rockies legend in Troy Tulowitzki through their first five MLB seasons:
| Player | GP | wRC+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Story | 603 | 114 | 17.9 |
| Tulowitzki | 554 | 114 | 15.9 |
Perhaps that's not a favorable comparison nowadays, knowing what became of Tulowitzki after he turned 30. But everyone forgets Tulo was a legitimate MVP threat from 2009-11.
The Rockies would be foolish to even listen to trade offers for Story. Locking him up is the only option. However, the team is at a crossroads and may decide to deal away Nolan Arenado this winter. A move like that could leave Story disgruntled and, if that's the case, teams should beat down Colorado's door to land the shortstop and extend him immediately.
The case for Lindor
The case for Lindor over Baez and Story is simple. He's baseball's best shortstop, is one year younger than the other two, has the accolades to back up his reputation, and is highly marketable.
Since 2015, Lindor has been worth the most WAR (28.9) among shortstops and has posted a better batting average and on-base percentage than Baez and Story despite a lower BABIP. He's also the only switch-hitter among the three, which is important because he mashes from both sides of the plate (.825 OPS vs. RHP, .851 OPS vs. LHP). Plus, he strikes out far less than his two counterparts.
| PLAYER | CAREER K% |
|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor | 14.1% |
| Javier Baez | 28.4% |
| Trevor Story | 28.6% |
Defensively, the four-time All-Star is the only one of the three to win multiple Gold Gloves and a Platinum Glove, and he ranks second in FanGraphs' defense metric among shortstops since 2015. He's also never posted a negative ultimate zone rating at any point during his career, while Baez and Story have combined to do it six times.
Sure, the other two shortstops have garnered MVP consideration in the past, but neither has collected votes in four separate campaigns like Lindor has. The Indians infielder has finished top six in AL voting twice.
Off the field, "Mr. Smile" has become one of MLB's most popular players and has led some impressive charitable endeavors, including the Lindor Smile Squad and his recent American Cancer Society campaign.
With his combination of speed, power, and defense, plus the accolades and popularity, it's no wonder Lindor's seeking a more lucrative contract than the nine-year, $215-million deal Christian Yelich signed with the Milwaukee Brewers last March. Teams interested in trading for him will likely have to pony up the dough to keep him long term. As the old adage goes, you get what you pay for.