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5 best NL win total bets for 2019

Jim McIsaac / Getty Images Sport / Getty

We took stabs at National League win totals for 2019 when they were released in January. Now that rosters are rounding out and the market is shaping some of these numbers, here are our five favorite over/under bets:

(Check out our five best American League win totals here.)

New York Mets - Over 84.5

What was the most significant number of the Mets' 2018 season? Was it Jacob deGrom's 10 wins despite his consistent mastery on the mound? Negative. What about David Wright's 1,585th game, the last of his career? You could argue the answer is still no.

Perhaps the most impressive figure - and significant one when looking to the future - is 77, which is the number of victories the Mets squeaked out despite 10 of their players accruing 0 WAR or worse, the third most on any roster in the majors.

Last year's relative success combined with new general manager Brodie Van Wagenen tidying up shop should result in around 10 more wins. The new-look Mets now have meaningful at-bats to distribute between Robinson Cano, Jed Lowrie, Wilson Ramos, and others who either were already in the fray or can come up from the minors to make an impact. The roster also probably won't lose more than 1,700 man games due to injury, as it did a season ago.

There's a ton of buzz surrounding the Mets entering 2019, and we're buying their stock.

Pittsburgh Pirates - Over 77.5

The NL Central will be fun to watch. The Cubs, Cardinals, and Brewers should all be in the mix, and the Reds reworked their roster enough to at least warrant attention.

The one team nobody is talking about is the Pirates, who quietly won 82 games last season, going over their win total for the sixth time in seven years.

Unlike its division counterparts, Pittsburgh isn't a flashy, star-laden team, but it also doesn't have many weaknesses. The Pirates shipped out both their franchise cornerstone in Andrew McCutchen and ace pitcher Gerrit Cole in the span of eight months, and still managed to top the .500 mark.

If you're looking for a deep sleeper in the NL, here's your team.

Washington Nationals - Over 88.5

Even without Bryce Harper, the Nationals are loaded. There's a great mix of speed and power throughout the order. Newly acquired Patrick Corbin may struggle to adjust to his move from Arizona to Washington, but he was the second-toughest starting pitcher to make contact against last season. We think that'll be a great left-handed plug behind Max Scherzer.

The Nats have been difficult to trust in years past, though. Talented rosters projected for deep runs have had little to show for it. The NL East is suddenly a slaughterhouse, but we still like Washington more than the Braves or Phillies.

Cincinnati Reds - Under 79.5

Despite four consecutive last-place finishes in the division and a much deeper NL Central this season, the Reds saw their win total rise from 77.5 to 79.5 in most shops.

This feels like a good time to pump the brakes a bit.

Cincinnati will have to rely on its offense again this year, albeit to a lesser extent than in years past after beefing up the rotation with the additions of Sonny Gray, Alex Wood, and Tanner Roark. Both the rotation and lineup seem solid, but is it enough to compete?

Over 162 games, this team has an outside shot at a .500 record. But if the Reds find themselves paces back in the division during the summer, do they ship out soon-to-be free agents Scooter Gennett and Yasiel Puig?

Cincinnati is a public darling, but we're not buying it as an 80-win team.

Milwaukee Brewers - Under 86.5

Respected preseason projections dislike the Brewers this year almost as much as PECOTA loathes the Orioles on an annual basis. We've seen numbers out there ranging anywhere from 78 to 83 for Milwaukee.

How could a team that has effortlessly beat out its projected win total in consecutive years be pegged - once again - as just around average? It looked like easy money.

The market responded early: The Brewers saw a leap from 83.5 to 86.5 in some places. It makes sense, too. Milwaukee is bringing back every important piece and added Yasmani Grandal to the fold.

However, regression might come for some of its star hitters, notably Christian Yelich and Jesus Aguilar, both of whom put up huge power numbers last season. The rotation also looks bleak in a division which features four competent lineups. Meanwhile, a huge strength from last season's team - the bullpen - is perhaps the most random aspect of the game; we're probably looking at a decline in that department.

So, no, it doesn't exactly look like easy money. But if the Brewers are 95-50 in early September, you can print this out and mail it to us.

Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.

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