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Bold predictions for MLB's 2nd half

theScore

With another interminable All-Star break nearly (mercifully) over, Jonah Birenbaum, theScore's senior MLB writer, gets you ready for the stretch run with some bold predictions for MLB’s second half.

Astros staff sets single-season WAR record

If the season ended last Sunday, Justin Verlander, who ranks fourth in the American League in ERA (2.29) and FIP (2.83), and first in WHIP (0.84), win probability added (3.36) and innings pitched (137 2/3), may well have won his second career Cy Young award. His new protege, Gerrit Cole, would've received downballot votes, owing to his sterling 2.52 ERA (2.97 FIP) over 128 1/3 innings, as would've Charlie Morton, the journeyman-turned-ace who crafted a 2.96 ERA with a 31.2 percent strikeout in 112 1/3 first-half innings. Neither of the Astros' other two starters should have felt too poorly about their seasons, either: Dallas Keuchel, himself a former Cy Young award winner, posted a 103 ERA+ over 122 1/3 innings, as did right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. in 112 1/3 innings.

Then there's the Astros' bullpen, which leads the majors in FIP (2.83) and trails only the New York Yankees' ridiculously stacked relief corps in ERA (2.75) - and that's with now-deposed closer Ken Giles stinking up the joint.

Run prevention is, like, kind of their thing.

Collectively, through the season's unofficial halfway mark, Houston's staff has accrued more fWAR (19.2) than 23 different teams did all of last year (although, in fairness, the All-Star break was a week earlier in 2017.) In terms of overall value, the Astros' staff has been a Jacob deGrom better (4.4 WAR) than the runner-up Yankees. At this rate, barring injury, they've got a chance to break the single-season pitching fWAR record set by last year's Cleveland Indians (31.7).

Aaron Judge records back-to-back 50-HR seasons

At the outset of the season, I predicted that neither Aaron Judge or Giancarlo Stanton would reach the 40-homer plateau in 2018, knowing full well that their home ballpark and baseball's current offensive climate are abnormally conducive to long balls. Both would get close, I reckoned, but I foresaw just enough regression for Judge and just enough DL time for Stanton to ensure that neither would hit 40. Now, it appears, they both might, and Judge is going to become the second player in Yankees history - along with Babe Ruth, of course - to hit at least 50 in consecutive seasons.

As the second half looms, Judge sits tied for third in the majors with 25 homers, meaning he needs another 25 over his club's final 67 games to get there. Judge, with his robust 15.6 percent walk rate, averaged about 3.77 at-bats per game through the first half, which means, if he stays healthy, he should get roughly 252 more ABs between now and the playoffs. Roughly, then, he'll need to go deep once every 10 at-bats.

Is that possible? Well, the most efficient home-run hitter in history, Mark McGwire, went yard once every 10.61 at-bats. But, hey, we're dealing with a small sample, and Judge proved last year that he's capable of some intense, small-sample home-run binges: from April 9 through April 29, he smacked 10 homers in 58 at-bats; from May 28 through June 12, Judge walloped seven dongs in 58 at-bats; then, from June 16 through June 28, he tallied another five in 40 at-bats; and over his final dozen games last year, from Sept. 18 through Sept. 30, the prodigious slugger socked nine dingers in 40 at-bats.

He won't have time to slump, obviously, and his performance heading into All-Star break wasn't the most encouraging - he had a "mere" .390 expected wOBA over the final month of the first half - but he can definitely do it.

Clayton Kershaw lowers career ERA - again

The historic and unrelenting brilliance of Clayton Kershaw is summed up pretty tidily with this delicious factoid: since his rookie season, the three-time National League Cy Young Award winner has lowered his career ERA every single year:

Through the first three months of the 2018 campaign, amid a marked decline in velocity (potentially fueled by the injury problems that sidelined him for nearly seven weeks, cumulatively), that streak would seem to be in jeopardy. Over his 13 starts, Kershaw owns a 2.74 ERA (and a 3.17 FIP, his worst since his rookie season), meaning he has to shave nearly four-tenths of a run off his ERA over the next 2 1/2 months to keep the streak alive. It won't be easy, but there's reason to believe he can do it: since allowing two runs over three innings against the Chicago Cubs on June 23 in his first start off the disabled list, Kershaw has very much resembled his usual self, crafting a 2.28 ERA while notching 21 strikeouts and allowing just five walks and one home run over 23 2/3 innings. The improvements across the board are striking:

Split xwOBA Average launch angle Whiff rate BABIP
March 29 - June 23 .313 8.8° 11.8% .304
June 28 - July 15 .258 7.4° 12.4% .242

Jacob deGrom wins NL MVP

Excepting Kershaw - who, as we've discussed, is superhuman - no pitcher has won the National League MVP award since Bob Gibson in 1968, when he so humiliated his opponents, to the tune of a 1.12 ERA (258 ERA+) and 0.85 WHIP, that Major League Baseball had to lower the pitcher's mound. Jacob deGrom, the beleaguered New York Mets ace, hasn't been quite that good, but he's still in the midst of the most effective season, by ERA+, this century, and, more importantly, he's been the most valuable player in a league devoid of any truly remarkable first-half performance from any position players.

Whether you prefer Baseball-Reference's (6.0) or FanGraphs' version of WAR (4.4), no pitcher or position player in the NL has provided more value in 2018 than deGrom, whose hilarious 5-4 record belies his league-leading 1.68 ERA, 228 ERA+, 2.32 FIP, and 4.07 win probability added. He's also second in the NL in WHIP (0.97), behind only Max Scherzer, and fourth in innings pitched (123 1/3).

Clearly, he's deserving of serious MVP consideration already, and once he's traded to a contender - which, make no mistake, the Mets unequivocally should do - and starts doing his dizzle for a postseason team, any voter with those indefensible hangups about A) giving the MVP to a pitcher; and B) giving the MVP to a player on a non-playoff team, should be sufficiently swayed, too.

Jonah Birenbaum is theScore's senior MLB writer. He steams a good ham. You can find him on Twitter @birenball.

(Photos courtesy: Getty Images)

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