Looking ahead to the 2019 Hall of Fame ballot

Now that the four-man class of 2018 has been elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame, it's time to look ahead to what next year's ballot might look like.

There's only one true, surefire first-ballot inductee coming onto the ballot in 2019 (Mariano Rivera), and another who in all likelihood should be a first-timer (Roy Halladay). This bodes well for a large group of returning candidates, as a good chunk of the top half of the ballot has cleared thanks to Wednesday's election.

Here's a look at the names who could populate the 2019 Baseball Writers' Association of America Hall of Fame ballot, and how this year's vote could shape next January's election.

Getting a bump

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Some players who have waited awhile should finally get over the hump in 2019. Martinez, the greatest designated hitter of all time, heads into his final year of eligibility having missed by just 20 votes this year, though his 11.7-percent gain compared to 2017 is still an excellent sign. Given that 2019 is the last time he'll be on the writers' ballot, he should be in for a generous final-year bump, similar to Tim Raines one year ago.

Mussina is also poised to at least reach the one-yard line in what will be his sixth go-around. His leaps have been gigantic since debuting at just 20.3 percent, and that should continue on next year's ballot. If he doesn't get in, he'll be poised for entry in 2020.

Bonds and Clemens actually stalled following two straight years of solid gains. Next year is critical if these all-time greats are going to overcome their steroid controversies and reach Cooperstown before 2022.

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Schilling and Walker still have a long way to go, but there's hope for next year. In Schilling's case, he appears to have regained the votes he lost in 2017 due to off-field controversies, giving his candidacy some momentum. This progress is exactly what Walker could use. While the Canadian slugger did show the biggest gain among returning candidates not elected, he's still nearly 70 percent off the pace with just two years to go. It's slated to be a weaker class of first-timers on the ballot, save for the two locks; perhaps that opens more ballot space for Walker to make what would be a historic leap forward. Because the truth is, he needs a miracle.

Trying again

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This list includes first-time and returning candidates who will be on the ballot next winter.

Of the newcomers, Vizquel presents the most interesting and polarizing case going forward. His debut total of 37.0 percent is a good sign for his fledgling candidacy, and should only increase next year. He's in fine shape for a slower, Mussina-like rise over the next several seasons.

Rolen and Jones, whose individual cases largely rest on all-time great defense, weren't locks to survive the first ballot but indeed live another day. Rolen has to be pleased debuting above 10 percent given the preannouncement projections, though it will still be difficult for him, a la Walker. As for Jones, he held on to his spot by the skin of his teeth but faces long odds once again in 2019. Perhaps a weak first-ballot class will help increase his total, but he could very well go two-and-done.

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Kent and Sheffield were this year's biggest losers, and though they both have legitimate arguments for induction, they now seem destined to play out the string in the low teens. Wagner, similarly, is in tough, but the induction of Hoffman this year combined with having more time on the ballot certainly work in his favor.

Expect the other two steroid-era stars in Ramirez and Sosa to keep declining, with Sosa in danger of falling off entirely. McGriff stands no chance of making it in his 10th and final try, though he should jump slightly through a few courtesy final-year votes; the Eras Committee should be much kinder to him.

First-ballot locks

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There should be two, first-ballot inductees next year, but it will make for a bittersweet weekend due to Halladay's tragic death in a single-plane accident this past November. "Doc" already had a stellar case based on his merit as the premier workhorse of his era with plenty of iconic performances to boost his candidacy, and his death, unfortunately, could be the reason he's now a first-ballot lock. If he does get in, expect fans from Toronto and Philadelphia - both within driving distance - to flood Cooperstown in honor of the beloved pitcher.

As for Rivera, the question is not "if" the greatest closer of all time gets in, but whether he'll be the first-ever unanimous inductee. Mo is so universally respected both on and off the field that it's not entirely out of the question.

Notable first-timers

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Helton, perhaps the greatest Colorado Rockie of them all, appears to measure up to the JAWS standards on both sides of the ball. A knock against him is that he played his entire career in Coors Field, and if the slow climb of his longtime Rockies teammate Larry Walker is any indication, Denver's mile-high altitude may be held against him.

The other interesting first-time candidate to watch is Pettitte, a Yankees legend who will have those October performances on his side despite a high ERA and no regular-season awards. His 2007 admission to using human growth hormone while recovering from an injury is sure to present a conundrum to the anti-PED faction of voters, making his potential rise or fall an interesting case study as more post-testing stars with steroid links start hitting the ballot.

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Berkman and Young all had excellent careers, and while it's not likely any of them could be elected, they might get enough to cross five percent. Young twice led the league in hits and won a batting title over his 14 years, while Berkman was a dependable slugger for several years who won a World Series.

Tejada may have an MVP award from his days as an All-Star shortstop, but his candidacy is probably doomed due to steroid issues that will likely make even the most forgiving voter look the other way. His PED-related transgressions include three positive tests for amphetamines, and in 2005, Rafael Palmeiro accused Tejada of giving him steroids, a notion Tejada has repeatedly denied.

One and done

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These names could be placed on the final ballot while having played at least 10 years in the majors, but stand little to no chance of even getting a vote despite excellent careers. Simply being nominated for the Hall is a prestigious honor that will likely mean a great deal to all of these men.

Position Players: Jason Bay, Travis Hafner, Ramon Hernandez, Juan Pierre, Placido Polanco, Yorvit Torrealba, Vernon Wells, Kevin Youkilis

Pitchers: Jose Contreras, Ryan Dempster, Octavio Dotel, Freddy Garcia, Jon Garland, Ted Lilly, Derek Lowe, Darren Oliver, Roy Oswalt, Jake Westbrook