Predicting 2026 F1 pecking order after preseason testing

The 2026 Formula 1 preseason is over, setting the stage for the season-opening race in Australia on March 8. Teams benefited from extensive track time thanks to a three-day shakedown in Barcelona and six days in Bahrain, which has lifted some of the mystery around this year's pecking order.

Here's the best guess at where each team stands heading into the Australian Grand Prix.

11. Aston Martin

The peak pace of the AMR26 might not be last on the grid, but what good is it if the car can't run on track? Aston Martin and its Honda engine struggled for reliability during preseason, logging the fewest laps of any team in Bahrain. Fourteen drivers even completed more laps than the constructor. Aston Martin managed just six laps on the final day of testing due to Honda's shortage of usable parts, with rumors that it had only one battery left. After all the stoppages and red flags caused by the AMR26, that wouldn't be a surprise. Forget scoring points. At this rate, it'll be a miracle if Aston Martin can complete the entire race in Melbourne.

10. Cadillac

Cadillac has a monster of a challenge ahead. With a lack of usable F1 data on each circuit, the American constructor shouldn't be expected to do much in Year 1. Its preseason pace was slow - as expected - but with a Ferrari power unit that is looking extremely reliable, Cadillac should soak up knowledge exponentially. Consider this a season of learning for Cadillac. Everything else will be a bonus.

9. Williams

Williams was off the pace in both qualifying and long runs in Bahrain, with its long-run performance considerably poor. Rumors suggesting the car is overweight could explain the problem. If that's the case, shedding pounds should yield immediate improvements in lap time. Still, this is a disappointing start to a new era for Williams, especially after a terrific 2025 campaign.

8. Racing Bulls

This section of the midfield comes with slim margins, but Red Bull's junior team seemed a touch faster than Williams over one lap and a longer distance. While there's skepticism on how long that may last due to the inexperience of Racing Bulls' lineup, at least the Red Bull-Ford power unit appeared reliable, which is good news for Liam Lawson and Arvid Lindblad.

7. Audi

Audi deserves a ton of credit for how its debut has gone so far. Gabriel Bortoleto and Nico Hulkenberg completed 711 laps, ranking Audi second among engine manufacturers with an average of 355.5 laps per car. The team also posted very respectable lap times across qualifying and race runs. The German outfit may find itself fighting against the weaker end of the midfield in its first year, and there's nothing wrong with that.

6. Haas

Haas looks poised to seriously improve on last year's eighth-place finish in the constructors' standings. Powered by a reliable Ferrari engine, Haas racked up 794 laps, trailing only McLaren. The outfit's long-run pace had it firmly in contention to be the best-of-the-rest after the front-runners. Team principal Ayao Komatsu continues to work wonders by squeezing every fraction of performance from this squad, while Toyota's technical partnership may also be paying dividends.

5. Alpine

Alpine's move to a Mercedes engine has been a genius gamble. The French outfit has a slight edge over Haas for the title of the next team up after the top four constructors. In each of the last two days of testing in Bahrain, an Alpine driver had a lap time good enough to crack the top six. After scoring only 22 points last season - the fewest among all teams - don't be shocked if Alpine is a consistent points finisher in 2026.

4. Red Bull

A familiar top four teams appear to be back again, though in a different order. Red Bull's done a superb job with its first power unit, but it might not be ready to fight for wins. Max Verstappen's long-run pace lagged a step behind the leading forces, and the RB22 didn't seem to have the legs to keep up with the likes of McLaren, Ferrari, or Mercedes over one lap. Notably, Red Bull was the only one of the top quartet not to post a lap time in the 1:32s. Now, there's chatter that tricks are being played, with Williams boss and Mercedes engine customer James Vowles suggesting Red Bull might have turned down its engines after a head-turning start in Bahrain. Is that the case, or did the others turn up their power units? The latter seems more likely at this point.

3. McLaren

The reigning constructors' champions grew stronger as the preseason progressed, though McLaren's leadership has been vocal in stating that it's still third- or fourth-best in the pecking order. While that may be true, McLaren consistently delivered impressive single-lap pace, with performance runs regularly near the top of the leaderboard. However, the defending champs didn't have their typical strength in race pace. The Papaya team was slightly better than Red Bull in the long runs but struggled with degradation. McLaren is playing the long game with development, hoping to learn more about the MCL40 before rushing upgrades. That could be a strategy that works wonders as the season goes on, but it may require a tiny bit of patience in the short term.

2. Ferrari

Ferrari hasn't experienced this type of hype in some time. The Scuderia started the week by debuting a new and unique exhaust flap, followed by a rotating rear wing designed to flip upside down and increase straight-line speed. Although they shelved the rear wing after its brief appearance, Ferrari's buzz continued. Lewis Hamilton and Charles Leclerc showed encouraging long-run pace all week, but it was Leclerc blitzing the timing sheets on the final day that sent the Tifosi into pandemonium.

In what can only be interpreted as a message to the rest of the paddock, Leclerc posted the five fastest laps of the entire preseason to end testing Friday. Ferrari is no stranger to fanning the flames of optimism, but it's hard not to daydream about championships coming back to Maranello after this kind of showing.

1. Mercedes

There's a boogeyman feeling around Mercedes. When the team sets quick times, it's confirmation that the Silver Arrows have developed a championship-caliber package. And if they don't set the best times, it's attributed to sandbagging. Either way, the Brackley-based operation has instilled fear in its competitors. While Ferrari was pumping out fastest lap after fastest lap, Mercedes showed little interest in matching its rivals in the one-lap performance runs. Since Barcelona, there have been a few moments when Mercedes has flashed unbothered confidence as it sticks to its own program.

Where Mercedes may have hinted at its advantage was in the longer runs, though fuel loads and power levels are unknown. At worst, Mercedes is almost surely among the top two, but there's a sense that this team has more in its arsenal to unleash. If that's true, watch out.

Daniel Valente is theScore's lead Formula 1 writer. Follow Daniel on X at @F1GuyDan.