Despite what the table suggests after two weeks of Premier League action, Chelsea are not headed for a relegation fight and Brighton are not European contenders.
While it may seem ridiculous to have to clarify that, many will surely overreact to what we've seen thus far. Let's use that to our advantage. Here are some spots in which you can exploit the early results and the flawed opinions caused by them.
|Aston Villa (+225)||Draw (+250)||Everton (+115)|
|Norwich City (+333)||Draw (+275)||Chelsea (-120)|
|Brighton (+140)||Draw (+230)||Southampton (+200)|
|Manchester United (-300)||Draw (+425)||Crystal Palace (+800)|
|Sheffield United (+230)||Draw (+230)||Leicester City (+125)|
|Watford (+105)||Draw (+250)||West Ham (+250)|
|Liverpool (-200)||Draw (+360)||Arsenal (+500)|
|Bournemouth (+1400)||Draw (+650)||Manchester City (-600)|
|Tottenham (-500)||Draw (+550)||Newcastle (+1300)|
|Wolverhampton (-118)||Draw (+240)||Burnley (+350)|
Norwich won over a lot of bettors with their demolition of a lifeless Newcastle side last weekend and are sure to be a popular underdog this season because of the brave, attack-minded approach - call it Barcelona-light - employed by manager Daniel Farke.
However, that style will result in them suffering a lot of lopsided defeats this season. It's naive to think they can play that way against the top teams and not be punished. We saw against Liverpool an unwillingness to adapt, and Norwich were carved open in defense as a result. The Canaries were riding a wave of adrenaline as the Premier League made its return to Carrow Road last weekend, but Chelsea pose a much tougher test than a Newcastle squad currently in shambles.
New Chelsea boss Frank Lampard took his Derby County side to Carrow Row last season and came away with a 4-3 victory, and you can expect him to get a response out of his club here as it guns for its first win of the campaign. The last time Chelsea went three games without a win to open the season was in 1998.
Pick: Chelsea -120
There's been no better story to start this season than Sheffield United. The Blades have yet to lose in their return to the Premier League, but they face a step up in class this week when Leicester come to town.
The Foxes have been misfiring early in the season but finally started to hit their stride in the second half of last week's draw with Chelsea, and they probably should have gone on to win the match. It's only a matter of time before Jamie Vardy starts scoring, and it feels unwise to bet against him doing so in his return to his hometown.
Leicester won five of their away matches against the bottom-six finishers last season - a group the Blades will likely be a part of when this campaign concludes. This feels like a "welcome to the Premier League" moment for Sheffield, and you can get Leicester at a discount as bettors overreact to the first two weeks. If this match was in February, Leicester would probably be priced closer to -130. The gulf in quality is simply too big here.
Pick: Leicester City +125
Wolves are going to be exhausted when they take the pitch for their third match in seven days, coming off a quick turnaround from their midweek trip to Italy for Europa League qualifying.
We seem to see this every season. A Premier League club stumbles through the opening month of the season as it attempts to balance the demands of both European and league play. Last year, it was Burnley. The year before, Everton.
To make matters worse, the Clarets are already a hard side to break down, making it unwise to believe Wolves have enough left in the tank after a grueling week. They scored just one goal in their two matches against Burnley last season, and that was without the burden of the Europa League.
Pick: Draw +240