Just four men remain in the men's Wimbledon bracket, and though they're all top-10 seeds, one of them will ultimately make for an improbable champion.
All four have had to win a five-set match at some point in the last couple rounds; two have had to rebound from two sets down. One is seeking his first Slam final; another, his first Slam title. One is after his third major crown; another, his 18th. The former champs both won their last majors at this tournament, back in 2012 and 2013. Thanks to the shockingly early ouster of world No. 1 Novak Djokovic, the man who's left standing on Sunday will either be tasting Grand Slam glory for the first time in a long time, or the first time ever.
On the eve of Friday's semifinals, let's break down the matchups that will determine who plays for the title at the All England Club.
No. 3 Roger Federer vs. No 6. Milos Raonic
Both Federer and Raonic were on the cusp of being eliminated from this tournament. Raonic trailed David Goffin two sets to love in the Round of 16; Federer faced the same deficit in the quarters against Marin Cilic. And yet, here they both are, reprising their 2014 semifinal.
Federer took Raonic to the woodshed in that match, but expect a different dynamic this time out. The lanky Canadian has both honed and reshaped his game since then, and though his loping strokes and heavy-footed strides won't invoke images of Federer, the two have similar game plans: Get ahead with the serve, move forward early and often, seal off angles, and clip points at the net.
The battle of the forecourt could be a deciding factor on Friday. Who'll be more aggressive and more opportunistic? Who'll approach first? Federer's the better volleyer, but Raonic is arguably better at establishing position in the middle of the court, and his long arms make him harder to pass once he's established. Both are devastating with their overheads.
Meanwhile, it'll be interesting to see how Federer holds up after having to save match points and go the distance with Cilic on Wednesday. His movement will be key to neutralizing Raonic's powerful sideline-to-sideline ground game - particularly his favored inside-out forehand - and being a half-step slow could mean the difference between making Raonic uncomfortable, and getting blown off the court.
Breaks will be tough to come by in a match featuring two of the game's most dominant servers; much will rest on which guy can get a better read on the other's serve, and who can more consistently get back to neutral on return points.
Federer has history on his side, and he'll have the crowd on his side as well. But even he seemed surprised to be playing this deep in the tournament, after expressing concerns about rust and fitness coming in. He holds a 9-2 edge in the head-to-head, but Raonic won their last match (in Brisbane this past January) convincingly, and he'll likely be fresher coming in. The 25-year-old could be primed to break through to his first major final.
The pick: Raonic in four sets
No. 2 Andy Murray vs. No. 10 Tomas Berdych
The head-to-head is pretty level between these two overall, but Murray has won their last four meetings, and their last nine sets. He, even more so than Federer, will have the overwhelming support of the fans behind him.
Berdych has a strong, flat ground game and a big first serve, all of which plays well on grass (his lone major final appearance came at Wimbledon back in 2010), where the two men have never met. But his game lacks variety, spontaneity, consistency, and any one particular weapon that gives Murray trouble.
The world No. 2 has showcased some of the best tennis of his career the past 18 months. He's fitter than ever, and has played typically dogged defense; he's also beefed up his offensive game, improving his serve (particularly the second) and complementing his ultra-steady backhand by flattening out his forehand. He's been a puzzle that Berdych (like most everyone on tour not named Djokovic) has struggled to solve.
The closest Berdych has come in their recent matches was at last year's Australian Open, when he won a hugely competitive first set in a tiebreaker, before getting distracted, running out of mental and physical stamina, and getting routed in the next three.
The human drama of their matches has often overshadowed the on-court drama. Berdych added Murray's former coach Dani Vallverdu to his team in January of 2015, shortly after he and Murray split, but Vallverdu apparently wasn't able to offer any insight on how to topple his former charge. Berdych also tried to recruit Ivan Lendl after he parted ways with Murray, but Lendl said no thanks, and is now back in the Englishman's corner.
"He basically said that he didn't have the time and that he didn't want to be involved in tennis," Berdych said of Lendl. "Then he comes back to Andy. So that's how it is."
Indeed. The smart money says Berdych takes another L courtesy of Murray on Friday.
The pick: Murray in four sets