Wimbledon Final Preview: Serena Williams vs. Garbine Muguruza

The precedent

When Garbine Muguruza destroyed Serena Williams in the second round of the French Open a little over a year ago, it was perhaps the most surprising moment of the season. Williams, despite her age, was still thoroughly in charge of the sport. Muguruza, despite carrying the ever-hopeful, ever-hazy tag of up-and-comer, hadn't yet announced herself on the radar; none could say whether her potential would manifest, or whether she'd join the ranks of countless other over-hyped would-be stars.

And yet, with Williams now that much further along the aging curve (assuming that phenomenon applies to her), and the seeds of Muguruza's talent now in full bloom, it would arguably be even more shocking if the 21-year-old Spaniard swung the upset when the two meet in the Wimbledon final Saturday.

That's not to say Muguruza doesn't have the goods to hang with Williams on grass. She's got scads of raw power, a free and easy swing, and quick and nimble feet. She won't junk up Williams's game with a buffet of variegated shots, but she can go blast-for-blast when swinging from the heels, can fight fire with fire. The two squared off most recently in the fourth round of this year's Aussie Open. It was terrific, delirious tennis; a mad rush of unadulterated ball-bashing. Williams won, but it was no cakewalk. She had to dig herself out of a one-set hole, and even after she found her best stuff, Muguruza didn't wilt, didn't let Williams off easy.

But this isn't the first week, when Williams is occasionally prone to dips in focus and motivation, when her heart isn't yet all the way in the tournament. This is a major final, the stage on which Williams is most comfortable and locked in. Muguruza is emerging from the wings, and making her first foray onto said stage. Williams is 20-4 in Slam title matches, having won the last seven in a row. Since the letdown against Muguruza, she's lost just one match at a major, and just five overall.

"She beat me before," Williams said of her impending opponent. "She made me improve."

Perhaps, with that in mind, Muguruza will come to regret that landmark win in Paris.

Handling the pressure

Williams's run of 27 straight major match wins very nearly came to an end in the third round of this tournament against hometown favorite Heather Watson - in front of the most vocally partisan crowd in memory - as it did in four separate matches at the French Open in which she dropped the opening set.

If there's cause here for Muguruza to take heart, it's that Williams, for all her steely resolve and champion-like aura, isn’t immune to pressure. Even as she stormed back from two breaks down in the third to beat Watson, she double-faulted at a couple inopportune moments, and even blew two match points by dumping routine returns into the net.

Muguruza, for her part, held her nerve rather impressively in her semifinal against Aga Radwanska, a far more experienced player, a terrific grass-courter, and a 2012 Wimbledon finalist. Muguruza got a bit tight after winning the first set, losing five straight games after going up an early break in the second, but pulled it together in the third to close things out in convincing fashion.

Before beating Maria Sharapova for the 17th straight time in the semis, Williams claimed she has nothing to lose and nothing left to prove here, which is true. Her claim to the Greatest of All Time mantle is virtually unassailable at this point, Serena Slam or not.

"I'm here just to enjoy it," she said, when asked for the umpteenth time about the emotional toll of trying to win her fourth straight major. "I think it's actually making me play better, which is crazy."

Given the way she's played since the Watson scare, it's hard to argue.

The difference-maker

Williams's serve is the single biggest weapon in women's tennis. It is blistering and unreadable. It regularly gets her out of trouble and wins her free points. When it doesn't whiz past her opponents in a blur, it keeps them pinned deep and prevents them from establishing rhythm in the ground game.

Against Sharapova, Williams won nearly 90 percent of her first-serve points and didn't allow a single break chance. If she's hitting her spots consistently, as she has been in her last three matches, it's game over for Muguruza.

Radwanska, who lost to Williams in the 2012 final, knows the feeling of being in a big moment and having to find an answer for that serve, on grass. Which is why even after getting blasted off the court by Muguruza, she didn't give the young upstart much of a chance.

"I don't think she can beat Serena in the final," Radwanska said. "I think Serena not going to let her do that, no, not in this tournament."

The stakes

Muguruza is staring down the biggest match of her life, and Williams seems to simultaneously have more and less at stake.

On the surface, being 12 years older than her opponent, she appears to have less time. And yet, her age-34 season is shaping up as perhaps the greatest of her career. She's already made history, multiple times over. And yet, there's always more history to be made.

She's still got Steffi Graf's Open Era record of 22 Grand Slams in her sights. She's sitting on 27 straight Grand Slam match wins. She's still lost just one match all year, even though it seems like she's been a bounce or two away from losing six or seven others. She's on the cusp of holding all four majors at once, for the second time in her career, more than 12 years after she did it the first time.

Think about that.

Because even if they don't admit it, you can be sure both Serena Williams and Garbine Muguruza will on Saturday.

The numbers