5 things you need to know about the 2014 French Open

Sweet, glorious Paris.

Few places have been romanticized to such lengths. Literature and movies have led us to believe anyone can fall in love in Paris, except “Taken.” Never “Taken.”

Rafael Nadal’s relationship with the French Open can be described as love met with turbulence. (A relationship, in other words.) When you’ve been with someone for so long, there are bound to be hiccups. Moments when smiles fade to frowns, when one decides not to make that trip to the in-laws on the weekend. Why would he? They don’t seem to like him.

Nadal’s dominance at the French over the last few years has been accompanied by increasingly tense interactions with the Roland Garros crowds. The Spaniard’s opponents have been cheered wildly while Nadal’s been jeered. It’s a little unseemly. The loudest roars we heard on Philippe Chatrier came in 2009, when Robin Soderling stunned Nadal in the fourth round.

The 28-year-old comes into Paris on a low, having lost to Novak Djokovic on clay in Rome. But he’ll be treated the same way. For whatever reason - be it the French-Spanish divide, wanting to cheer for the underdog, or Nadal’s brutish style - Rafa will never truly be embraced by this tournament, and its fans. He still loves it and them though, and in reality, the French love him, too. How can you not love someone that’s won you over eight times?

Before the 113th edition begins, here are five things you need to know about the French Open.

1) Is Nadal still the favorite?

Yes, he is, even though he’s looked more vulnerable on his favorite surface in 2014 than ever before. But Nadal’s two losses to his favorite punching bags, David Ferrer and Nicolas Almagro, in Monte Carlo and Barcelona, along with his capitulation to Djokovic in Rome, indicate he isn’t the ruthless Rafa of old.

We saw a similar dip from Roger Federer when he turned 28. Players who were once cast aside with ease sensed the man who had crushed them so often wasn’t the same. He could be beaten. Ferrer and Almagro recognized their tormentor was not playing at the Zeus-like level they came to expect.

Djokovic remains the only player with a better than 50 percent shot at beating Nadal over five sets. Their five-set tiebreak thriller in last year’s French Open semifinal saw Nole raise his game to new heights on clay, only for Nadal to prevail. The Spaniard recognizes he must play his best to have a chance against Djokovic, especially after Rome.

2) Can anyone stop Serena Williams?

The gambler in me believes Williams has better odds of winning in Paris than Nadal. Her rivals have major question marks heading into Roland Garros.

Li Na battled severe food poisoning in Rome, Agnieszka Radwanska can’t beat Serena (0-8 lifetime), Victoria Azarenka was forced to pull out due to a foot injury, and Maria Sharapova is seeded seventh, not an ideal placement for a deep run in a major.

Sharapova has been excellent on clay in 2014, however, suffering her only loss on the surface this year to Ana Ivanovic in Rome. Still, it’s difficult to see her beating Serena here. Sharapova is 2-16 lifetime versus Williams, including her loss to Serena in the 2013 French Open final. The last time Sharapova beat Williams: 2004.

The biggest test for Williams could come from the tour’s young guard, led by Romania’s Simona Halep. Only Williams won more titles than Halep in 2013, and the 22-year-old enjoyed a successful clay season, making the Madrid final where she lost to Sharapova.  

3) Can Roger Federer make a 2009-like run?

Unfortunately for Federer fans, the answer is no. The French has always served as a bogeyman for the Swiss maestro. His one and only triumph came in 2009, when Soderling’s shock upset of Nadal paved the way for Federer to complete his career slam.

Federer will be the No. 4 seed, which is a big plus considering he’ll avoid the true heavyweights before the semifinals, but a second French title will be a tall task for the greatest player of all time.

Now the father of two sets of twins, Federer suffered a shock second-round loss to French journeyman Jeremy Chardy in Rome. While he’s primed for one more big run at a Grand Slam, it won’t be in Paris.

4) Will Eugenie Bouchard be this year’s breakthrough star?

The WTA sure hopes so, but the answer depends on how we define “breakthrough.”

Bouchard struggled mightily this spring, so much so that she played the week before the French while most of the tour’s best players took time to rest. And clay has not been kind to the 20-year-old - she’s lost three in matches in row on the surface, going back to May 1.

Her losses in recent weeks have carried a similar theme: veteran opponents have tactically outsmarted her on clay.

It’s very unlikely Bouchard will repeat her Australian Open semifinal performance, but a trip to the fourth round should be seen as a positive step for the Canadian.

5) Raonic, Nishikori, or Dimitrov: Who ya got?

It feels like we’ve waited a while for the next generation of stars to take over the men’s game, but the time is coming. They’re close.

Milos Raonic, Kei Nishikori, and Grigor Dimitrov have registered impressive clay-court campaigns. Nishikori and Dimitrov won in Barcelona and Bucharest respectively. Nishikori lost to Nadal in the Madrid final after taking the first set. Raonic made the quarterfinals in four Masters events and waged a spirited three-set battle with Djokovic in Rome.

They each have their blemishes. Nishikori’s biggest problem is injuries. He retired against Nadal in Madrid after his body stopped working. Raonic’s propensity to slip in the big moments - the second-set tiebreak against Djokovic in Rome comes to mind - remains a hallmark of his game. Dimitrov’s title in Romania came against a weak set of opponents.

So who has the best shot of making noise in Paris? Raonic is the pick. His backhand has improved immensely since teaming up with Riccardo Piatti, and he’s shown new willingness to attack the net. I expect his big frame - considerably bigger than Nishikori’s and Dimitrov’s - to withstand the rigors of a few five setters on the way to the quarterfinals.