NHL Draft Lottery Preview: Auston Matthews is the jackpot
The moment has come, Canada. And for you too, America.
The NHL Draft Lottery takes place Saturday night in Toronto, and the results will be broadcast at 8 p.m. ET on NBC, CBC, and TVAS. The fate of a number of franchises hang in the balance ahead of the 2016 NHL Draft on June 24 and 25 in Buffalo, N.Y.
There's a significant change to this year's lottery: It will decide the top three picks, as opposed to the first overall selection. In previous years, the team finishing in last place in the standings was guaranteed a top-two pick. That's no longer the case.
There will be three draws, one each to determine the clubs that will draft first, second, and third. The drama!
Odds
The Toronto Maple Leafs were the worst team in the NHL this season and have the best odds at the No. 1 pick. Five Canadian teams have a 7.5 percent chance or more to land the first pick. Woe, Canada!
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Maple Leafs | 20% |
| Edmonton Oilers | 13.5% |
| Vancouver Canucks | 11.5% |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 9.5% |
| Calgary Flames | 8.5% |
| Winnipeg Jets | 7.5% |
| Arizona Coyotes | 6.5% |
| Buffalo Sabres | 6% |
| Montreal Canadiens | 5% |
| Colorado Avalanche | 3.5% |
| New Jersey Devils | 3% |
| Ottawa Senators | 2.5% |
| Carolina Hurricanes | 2% |
| Boston Bruins | 1% |
Vote
The Big 3
The class of 2016 is thought to be three deep: Auston Matthews, Patrik Laine, and Jesse Puljujarvi; the American and two Finns.
Matthews is the prize. At 6-foot-2 and 194 pounds, he's the No. 1 center teams dream about. While his path to the NHL has been unorthodox, the 18-year-old choosing to spend his draft year playing in Switzerland's National League, there's no doubt about his talents - he scored 24 goals and 22 assists in 34 games as a teenager in a men's league. The Scottsdale-born kid is ready for primetime, and the team that lands him is going to be set up the middle for 10 years.
Laine is one hell of a consolation prize. He celebrated his 18th birthday on April 19, and already has the body of a man at 6-foot-4 and 209 pounds. The winger turned heads at the World Junior Hockey Championship, scoring seven goals and finishing with 13 points in seven games as the Finns won gold on home soil. The scary part: He only got better as the Finnish Elite League season went on. He scored 17 goals in 46 regular-season games, but bagged 10 in 15 playoff games. In the postseason, the game plan was "Pass it to Laine." He's going to score at the NHL level. We'll find out for who Saturday.
Puljujarvi is only 17. He's 6-foot-3 and 201 pounds. He's a better skater than Laine. He's been compared to Jamie Benn. Let's put it this way: The team drafting third is going to get a very, very good player in Puljujarvi, if Matthews and Laine go 1-2 as projected. As good as Laine was at the juniors, Puljujarvi was better. He finished with five goals and 17 points in seven games - the highest total since 1990, when some guy named Jaromir Jagr put up 18 - and had a hat trick in the gold-medal game. This kid brings size, speed, skill, and toughness. Whatever the situation, Puljujarvi has the ability to thrive.
History
The Edmonton Oilers have drafted first overall in four of the past six years: Taylor Hall in 2010, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins in 2011, Nail Yakupov in 2012, and Connor McDavid last year. Just when you think Edmonton can't possibly land another No. 1 pick, it does. Nothing goes the Oilers' way on the ice, but the ping pong balls have been kind. No one will be surprised if Matthews is an Oiler on June 24. You can't be.
While history's on Edmonton's side, the Maple Leafs put themselves in the best position to land Matthews. But history has never been on Toronto's side. In any respect. But Toronto's rebuild will add a big piece if the Maple Leafs land in the top three - which means they're all but guaranteed to drop to No. 4.
As for the team that could truly use Matthews, it has to be the Vancouver Canucks. The club's never drafted first overall. And there's no time like the present.
Godspeed.