Projecting Nazem Kadri's next contract

Nazem Kadri has a fan in Lou Lamoriello.

The Toronto Maple Leafs center, who's set to become a restricted free agent at season's end, certainly appears to boast the kind of game valued by the long-term NHL executive and the franchise's first-year general manager.

Into the foxhole

"I love the way he competes," Lamoriello said in an interview with Sportsnet's Elliotte Friedman on Wednesday. "I've seen him get hit at different times and he just comes right back. He's not afraid to give it, and what you respect the most about him is he can take it. He's not a retaliatory type of player, but he'll get you at the right time, and at the right place.

"He's one that I wouldn't mind going in a foxhole with."

At the halfway point of his one-year, $4.1-million contract with the club, and in light of Lamoriello's assessment, it's worth considering what Kadri's next deal might look like, be it of the one-year bridge variety or a long-term commitment between player and team.

What are the 'insiders' saying?

Speaking on Sportsnet590 The Fan on Thursday, Nick Kypreos pointed to the bevy of pending free agents on Toronto's plate, and argued the Maple Leafs either need to pony up or move on when it comes to Kadri.

"There's no question they're a lot happier with Kadri than this time last year," he said. "The Leafs next move now is make that commitment to him and buy unrestricted free-agent years. Or, they just cut ties and move him.

"The question is now, how deep do you want to go? How much of a commitment are you going to make to Kadri moving forward? Because I can tell you he's looking for a five- or six-year deal, and if it's not over $30 million he's looking for, it's pretty darn close."

Let's pause here and look at the numbers.

Kadri, 25, was drafted seventh overall in 2009, and has 291 NHL games under his belt. He set career-highs in goals (20), assists (30) and total points in 2013-14, but was playing at a 30-goal, 75-point pace during the lockout-shortened season the year before.

Through 41 games this season, Kadri has recorded eight goals and 14 assists, production that belies his actual performance. With 147 shots on goal to date - putting him 10th among all players - he's on pace for 294, which would smash his personal high (176) set in 2014-15.

On top of that, his shooting percentage sits at 5.4 percent, less than half his career mark of 11. Add it all up, and were it not for a measure of bad luck, he'd be on pace to eclipse 30 goals once again.

Here's where things get really interesting.

Kadri = Bozak?

In Kypreos' estimation, the Maple Leafs will need to determine whether Kadri has another level to his game, or if he's simply another version of Tyler Bozak, who's already signed at a cap hit of $4.2 million through to the end of 2017-18.

Considering the age gap and the fact Bozak spent years playing on Toronto's top line with the likes of Phil Kessel on his wing, it's not a leap to suggest Kadri not only has significantly more upside, but is straight up a more productive player based on the numbers he's put up in a lesser role.

A good point of comparison is Tomas Plekanec of the rival Montreal Canadiens, who, at age 28 signed a five-year, $30-million contract after posting a 70-point 2009-10 season. Up to that point, he had averaged 0.62 points per game while averaging major minutes and without ever reaching the 30-goal mark.

A similar deal, in accordance with what Kypreos suggests he's asking for, seems more than fair for Kadri at this point in his career.

Seen Stamkos?

The X-factor here is whether the Maple Leafs are bent on pursuing Steven Stamkos, should he not be re-signed by the Tampa Bay Lightning. If they can make a play for the superstar on the open market, it seems unlikely that they would make a significant commitment to Kadri.

With that option not yet on the table in reality, the final word here goes to Lamoriello, who offered the following response when asked by Friedman if Kadri is the kind of player the Maple Leafs could commit to long-term.

"Let me put it this way: I'm a fan of the way he plays, and there's no question you want Nazem Kadri in your lineup," he said.

Whether the rest of the Maple Leafs' brain trust agrees is yet to be determined.