What Calvin Johnson's retirement would mean for the Lions
Looking at all possible outcomes for the 2016 Detroit Lions, there is literally no worse outcome than Calvin Johnson deciding to retire.
Outside of all the obvious on-field setbacks that losing a receiver of Johnson's caliber brings, the financial burden carried by the cash-strapped Lions is equally concerning.
If Johnson walks away, the Lions would get little cap relief, as they would be forced to carry $12.9 million in dead money while being stripped of one of the game's best players. That dead money is less than his current $24-million cap number but the belief is the Lions and Johnson would restructure his deal for cap savings if he plays in 2016.
Looking at where Megatron is at this point in his career, there are five plausible outcomes for his future:
- Returns to Lions for 2016 season
- Returns to Lions with restructured contract
- Is traded to another team
- Returns to Lions and is released following 2016 season
- Retires in 2016
Let's look at the pros and cons for each option.
If Johnson returns to the team in 2016 on his current deal, his $24-million cap hit is crippling from a salary cap standpoint. However, the team would still reap the significant benefits of his on-field performance, leadership, and ability to sell tickets. It's not ideal for a team to pay one player roughly 16 percent of its overall budget, but at least it would get his production.
Restructuring Johnson on a Larry Fitzgerald-type deal would be the best outcome for the Lions, getting his number down to around $10 million in 2016 would give the franchise cap flexibility without losing around 1,200 yards and 10 touchdowns.
Trading Johnson allows the Lions to gain assets that mitigate the loss of his production. Simply put, gaining draft picks for a top-two player in franchise history would sting but could set the team up well for the future. It's something new general manager - and former Patriot - Bob Quinn likely would've considered had Johnson not publicly mulled retirement.
Finally, Johnson's decision to retire this season is especially onerous for the Lions because if he played one more year and walked away in 2017, his dead money hit would go from about $13 million to a manageable $5 million. And the Lions would squeeze one more year out of a generational talent who's shown only a modest decline in performance.
For a Lions franchise that seems buried under the weight of historical ineptitude, Johnson's decision to walk away really hurts. The fan base now recognizes the notion that even when you win, you lose.
After years of watching high draft picks like Charles Rogers, Mike Williams and Joey Harrington bust, the team finally saw players like Johnson, Ndamukong Suh and Matthew Stafford flourish. What did they gain in the end? Two unsuccessful trips to the playoffs while being strong-armed into paying top draft picks exorbitantly high salaries.
The irony of the Lions finally finding viable talent that handcuffed their cap situation just before a rookie wage scale was implemented should not be lost on anyone.