Week 16 NFL Betting Recap: The Seahawks are peaking at the right time

The 16th Sunday of the NFL season is in the books, and, as always, there's a lot to take away from this week's action. We're very late into the season, so not all of these takeaways will be applicable to betting opportunities this season, but they're important to note going forward.

There's no better place to start than with the Seattle Seahawks' beatdown of the Arizona Cardinals on the road. Since Seattle's Week 11 loss in Kansas City, the Seahawks have been downright dominant, winning their past five games by an average score of 22.8 to 6.6. The Seahawks have to be considered the Super Bowl favorites at this point. It's hard to pinpoint exactly what has led to this Seahawks turnaround, but nevertheless, it has been impressive. Part of the turnaround can be attributed to the return of middle linebacker Bobby Wagner, but this could simply just be a matter of a team finding their form late in the season. 

The Seahawks are often viewed as a team that struggles away from home, which makes their latest win streak look even better. In their five-game winning streak, the Seahawks have defeated the San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles, and Cardinals by double-digits on the road. Those teams are a combined 16-7 at home this season. As it stands, the Seahawks possess the number one seed in the NFC, and it's hard to imagine anyone going to CenturyLink Field and knocking off this team right now.

From a gambling perspective, the Seahawks fell into a strong betting angle last night, and one that has proven to be very profitable over the years. Take favorites in primetime games. Using SportsInsights' BetLabs software, I was able to confirm the effectiveness of this system.

Since 2003, taking the favorite in every primetime game would have produced a 267-235 (53.2%) record for a 3.9% return on investment. That certainly isn't anything noteworthy, but when we remove double-digit favorites from the equation, the record jumps to 246-197 (55.5%) for an 8.4% return on investment. If we refine the system even further, and only look at favorites between 3.5 and 9.5 points, the record improves to 160-107 (59.9%) for an 18.1% return on investment. The system has produced a 15-11 (57%) record for a 12.1% return on investment this season. 

The 3.5 and 9.5 weren't just selected as random numbers to make the system look great either. If a home team is favored by 3.5 or more, it implies that it would be favored over the opposing team on a neutral field, further implying the team as the better team. If the road team is favored by 3.5 or more, it implies that it would be nearly a touchdown favorite on a neutral field. The theory behind this system is to back the better team when all of America is watching, provided that the line isn't super inflated (double-digits). The Denver Broncos may fall into this range tonight. This isn't to say that the Cincinnati Bengals can't win, or that you should never take a primetime underdog. It simply shows that betting favorites in primetime games is an effective long-term strategy.

While the Seahawks have been proving their worth over the course of the past month, the Indianapolis Colts have been doing the complete opposite. Indianapolis isn't a legitimate playoff contender. The Colts often look a lot better than they are because of their ability to beat up on the dredges of the league. Just look at what Indianapolis has done against the league's bottom feeders:

• Week 3 - W 44-17 at Jaguars
• Week 4 - W 41-17 vs. Titans
• Week 9 - W 40-24 at Giants
• Week 12 - W 23-3 vs. Jaguars
• Week 13 - W 49-27 vs. Redskins

• Week 1 - L 31-24 at Broncos
• Week 8 - L 51-34 at Steelers
• Week 11 - L 42-20 vs. Patriots
• Week 16 - L 42-7 at Cowboys

The Colts didn't have much to play for against the Dallas  Cowboys yesterday, but that doesn't excuse them from their pitiful performance. Maybe things would have been different if T.Y. Hilton could have suited up. Maybe things would have been different if the Colts had converted a fake punt late in the first quarter. As the saying goes, if "ifs" and "buts" were candy and nuts, we'd all have a Merry Christmas. Don't expect much from Indianapolis in the postseason. They may be able to win a home contest against one of the wild card teams, but they're not going to New England or Denver and upsetting one of those two teams.

The Eagles, Saints, and Bills deserve to be going home. Let's start with Philadelphia, with whom the wheels completely fell off in the last month. Who would have thought that the Eagles would start to lose games when they weren't getting a weekly defensive or special teams touchdown? Shocking. December taught us all that Mark Sanchez still stinks, and a postseason without Sanchez will make for some better viewing.

I don't even know where to start with the New Orleans Saints. The Saints had every opportunity to take control of the NFC South this season, but they fell flat every single time. The Saints lost five consecutive home games to close out the season, with only two of those losses coming against teams that are currently in the postseason (and one of them is the 6-8-1 Atlanta Falcons). What's particularly fascinating about the Saints is that people still view Drew Brees as a good quarterback. The FOX broadcast was praising Brees for his "stellar season" yesterday, despite the fact that he's made numerous boneheaded decisions which have cost the Saints games. I can't tell you how glad I am that I don't have to watch the Saints play another meaningful game (don't hate me Saints' fans).

And finally, we arrive at the Buffalo Bills. I predicted that the Bills would lose outright to the Raiders this week, because that would simply be the most Buffalo thing to happen. If you laid a touchdown with Kyle Orton on the road, you may want to reconsider wagering on football. Though, the Bills did have some things go against them. Oakland really couldn't get anything going on offense until Marcell Dareus injured his knee and was forced to leave the game. Bills' fans everywhere spent the majority of the second half puking up eggnog as they watched Latavius Murray and Darren McFadden shred their defense. At the end of the day, if you can't beat the Raiders in a do-or-die game, it wasn't meant to be anyways. Consider it a Festivus miracle that viewers won't have to endure a Kyle Orton start in the postseason.

As for some other takeaways from Sunday:

• There is no point for the NFL replay anymore. Jamaal Charles did not fumble. Jimmy Graham scored a touchdown. Chase Ford did not step out of bounds. The NFL's refusal to overturn anything that isn't blatantly obvious defeats the purpose of having replay in the first place. All three of the plays listed above heavily influenced the outcome of the game.
  • Using PredictionMachine.com's Live ScoreCaster feature, the Kansas City Chiefs had a 41.6% chance of winning prior to Charles' fumble. Their projected winning percentage dropped to 21.6% following that play. The Saints still had a 26.0% chance to mount a comeback prior to Graham's goal-line fumble, but that number dropped to 3.1% after the incorrect call. 
• Teddy Bridgewater is the best quarterback in the 2014 draft class. Bridgewater's 13-to-11 touchdown-to-interception ratio doesn't exactly inspire a ton of confidence, but he's been steadily improving as the season has gone on. 
  • Other quarterbacks in the 2014 draft class: Blake Bortles (lemon), Johnny Manziel (LOLOLOL), Derek Carr (How to throw a checkdown 101), Logan Thomas (thanks for coming out), Zach Mettenberger (Blaine Gabbert 2.0).
• The Packers' offense struggles on the road. Green Bay better hope that the Seahawks find a way to lose that number one seed, or get upset on the road to the NFC Conference Championship.
  • Packers' points in road games this season: 16, 7, 38 (against the Bears, so this doesn't count), 27, 23, 24, 13, 20
• The Jets always play the Patriots tough. Rex Ryan has said a lot of dumb things over the years, but he was bang on with his post-game comments. "If you can control Brady - I don't know if that's really possible - but if not, we're the team that always gives him his biggest challenge, whether he admits it or not."

• Laying points with Joe Flacco or Matthew Stafford on the road is not optimal. This doesn't need any extra analysis. It's always tempting to take the Ravens and Lions against inferior opponents on the road, but they'll inevitably be killed by horrible quarterback play. Whether it's Stafford throwing a pair of red zone picks, or Flacco drinking a gallon of vodka before the game, it's just not going to end well.

Monday Night Football

There are some major concerns with Peyton Manning right now. Manning has looked mediocre in the Broncos' last two games against the Bills and Chargers, but he'll see an inferior defense this week. The Bengals have registered just 18 sacks in 14 games this season. You don't beat Manning if you can't generate any pressure. To make matters worse for the Bengals, they surrender 4.3 yards per carry, which means that Manning could just keep handing off to C.J. Anderson like he's done over the past few weeks.

On the other side of things, the Broncos' defense matches up very well with the Bengals' offense. Denver surrenders just 3.4 yards per carry so they should be able to put the clamps down on Jeremy Hill, who went off against Cleveland last week. Andy Dalton will face plenty of third-and-longs, and we've all seen how that ends up, especially in primetime contests. With DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller breathing down Dalton's neck, and Aqib Talib and Chris Harris playing tight coverage on the outside, I don't see the Bengals generating much offense. Broncos -3.5

I obviously would have much preferred Denver at -3 as was available all week, but I'd still play this at Broncos -3.5. Manning's issues are of definite concern, but I'll take that risk at a reasonable price.

#SuperContest

The OddsShark.com Super Computer challenged some NFL analysts to some friendly competition in this year’s WestGate SuperContest. It has been a less than stellar year with my plays, but I remarkably have a chance to go perfect this week if the Broncos come through tonight. If you're interested in fading my plays on a weekly basis, you can track my progress here.

Here's a quick recap of my plays this week:

1. Falcons +6.5 (W) - I still don't understand how the Saints were favored by this much. New Orleans and Atlanta are equals, so I'm glad I jumped on the points. Easy win.
2. Jets +10 (W) - It's admittedly difficult to back the Jets, but they always get up for their games against the New England Patriots. This one was no different. A wire-to-wire winner.
3. Panthers +1.5 (W) - I really didn't like the Panthers at all but simply had to play this game because of the line value. Knowing full well that the Panthers would close as a favorite of more than a field goal, I couldn't pass this up. I'm glad I didn't.
4. Raiders +5.5 (W) - I almost didn't play this because of the lack of line value, but I was certain that the Bills would lay an egg following last week's upset of the Packers. Another easy winner.
5. Broncos -3 (?) - This fits into my favorites in prime-time angle, and I really just don't think the Bengals are a very good team.

Week 17 Early Thoughts

It’s never too soon to start looking at next week's action. Here are my thoughts on every Week 17 game, using early consensus lines. 

• Lions @ Packers (-7.5) - I'm inclined to take the underdog with so much on the line here, but I'm not betting against the Packers at home.
• Jaguars @ Texans (-9.5) - The Jaguars rarely look intriguing, but they certainly do here, coming in on extra rest against a backup quarterback.
• Bengals @ Steelers (NL) - Depending on how tonight's game plays out, this will likely be Steelers -3 or -3.5. I'm not a fan of Cincinnati at all. I think this would be Pittsburgh or nothing. 
• Colts @ Titans (+6.5) - The Colts have nothing to play for but they are superior to the Titans in every way possible. I imagine Indianapolis would like to put up a solid showing following their embarrassing loss this week.
• Browns @ Ravens (-9 -105) - If Brian Hoyer starts, the Browns are worth a look. If Johnny Manziel starts, the Ravens win by 30.
• Bills @ Patriots (-10.5 +100) - This line is inflated because the Patriots need to win to secure home field advantage in the AFC. Buffalo will put up a fight but it's tough to get behind Kyle Orton when he's facing Tom Brady, especially since the Bills have some injury concerns with Dareus and Stephon Gilmore. 
• Jets @ Dolphins (-4.5 -115) - This line was Dolphins -7 a week ago, but Miami has looked awful in recent weeks, bringing the number down. The Jets put everything they had into their game against the Patriots. They'll probably be flat in Rex Ryan's going away party.
• Panthers @ Falcons (-3.5 -112) - I really don't have much of an opinion here. I think the line is right.
• Bears @ Vikings (-7) - The Vikings have been great in the underdog role, but I'm not ready to back them as big chalk.
• Chargers @ Chiefs (-2.5 -125) - Chargers or nothing. The Chiefs' offense isn't working and they aren't doing anything to turn that around.
• Eagles @ Giants (-2.5 -115) - The Giants have been playing good football as of late, albeit against lesser competition. It's hard to imagine the Eagles get up for this game after being eliminated from the playoffs.
• Cowboys @ Redskins (NL) - No line as of yet. The Cowboys are solid on the road but this number will likely be pretty high. Probably a pass.
• Saints @ Bucs (+3.5) - I'd like to take the Bucs here but they're just so bad on offense. If the Saints show up to play, they should win handily.
• Rams @ Seahawks (NL) - This line will be inflated through the roof. The Rams tend to give the Seahawks trouble, so I'll be looking at the underdog here.
• Cardinals @ 49ers (NL) - If Ryan Lindley starts for the Cardinals again, they're not scoring more than seven points. I imagine the 49ers will be laying 4/4.5 points, and they'd be the side that I look to.
• Raiders @ Broncos (NL) - The Broncos will probably be favored by two touchdowns and win by four touchdowns.