Week 12 NFL Betting Preview: Big favorites on upset alert

Week 12 has arrived.

This week started off with a huge bang, thanks to the Raiders' upset of the Chiefs on Thursday night. I think this will be the theme of the week, with many of the big favorites on this week's board being in terrible spots.

A quick glance at the Week 13 schedule reveals some huge games: Eagles at Cowboys, Seahawks at 49ers, Patriots at Packers and Broncos at Chiefs. Three of these games have major playoff implications, while the Packers-Patriots showdown is a battle of two Super Bowl favorites. Subsequently, it's entirely possible (and likely, in my opinion) that many of this week's big favorites could be looking past their lowly opponents, which from the looks of things, hasn't been factored into this week's lines. Consequently, I'm sure that my predictions for this week's games won't be too popular in the eyes of most people reading this. 

Once again, I’ve linked each game headline to the OddsShark matchup page, which includes the betting consensus, trends, power stats and other items of note for each game. The picks for the two Monday games - Bills-Jets was moved to Monday - will be included in my recap piece on Monday.

Cleveland Browns @ Atlanta Falcons

Friday Consensus Line: Falcons -3 -115, total of 47

The Pick: The Falcons may lead the NFC South, but that’s only because the rest of the division is an abomination. Matt Ryan has been forced to operate behind an abysmal offensive line, which has been a major issue, as the Falcons have averaged less than 18 points per game over their last six contests. Cleveland is weak at defending the run, but excels in pass coverage, so the Browns should be able to keep Atlanta's offense in check.

Brian Hoyer is undoubtedly worse than the quarterback opposing him, but he has some major things working for him in this contest. Atlanta’s front seven on defense is non-existent, so Cleveland should be able to run the ball effectively and keep a clean pocket for Hoyer, who will have stud wideout Josh Gordon back in the lineup. The Browns faltered last week against Houston, but they should get back on track against one of the league’s worst squads. Browns 30, Falcons 23

The Wager: This one’s a no-brainer for me. Atlanta’s four victories this season have come within its atrocious division. In fact, since early last season, the Falcons are 3-1 against the Bucs and just 4-17 against the rest of the league.  Browns +3 (Grading myself on the consensus line, but shop for +3.5s, which are available)

Tennessee Titans @ Philadelphia Eagles

Friday Consensus Line: Eagles -11, total of 48.5

The Pick: The Eagles were predictably destroyed by the Packers last week, but they shouldn’t have an issue getting back on track this week. Credit to the Titans for putting a scare into the Steelers on Monday, but having to travel to Philadelphia to face the Eagles’ up-tempo offense on a short week isn’t ideal. The Titans have forced just 1.2 takeaways per game this season, so Mark Sanchez’s turnover issues are less likely to rear their ugly head this week.

I have no faith in Zach Mettenberger’s ability to match points with the Eagles’ offense. Mettenberger is a statue in the pocket, and the Eagles' boisterous pass rush (33 sacks) should be able to tee off on him. Prior to last week’s game, Philadelphia had forced at least one turnover in 21 straight games, so there’s a good chance the Eagles will be able to offset any mistakes Sanchez makes. Eagles 35, Titans 17

The Wager: While the Eagles should have their way with the Titans, I’m avoiding this game for several reasons. For one, Philadelphia has a huge Thanksgiving Day affair coming up with the Cowboys next week, so they may not be entirely focused for this one. Additionally, Jerome Boger’s crew will be officiating this game, guaranteeing a bogus call that could affect the point spread. Pass

Detroit Lions @ New England Patriots

Friday Consensus Line: Patriots -7, total of 48

The Pick: I won’t sit here and diminish anything that the Patriots have done. New England has averaged 40.5 points in its last six games, which is downright insane. The emergence of Rob Gronkowski has led to some ungodly numbers, but Detroit’s defense has limited opposing tight ends to just 45 yards per game and four touchdowns in 10 games this season. The Lions have the best scoring defense in the league, and they haven’t given up more than 24 points in a single game this season. This won’t be a cakewalk for New England.

Detroit’s offense has been a major issue this season, but with Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush both expected to be in the lineup this week, the Lions have an opportunity to get back on track. The Pats have been without Jerod Mayo and Chandler Jones in their front seven, and while it hasn’t hurt them yet, those injuries will eventually catch up to them. With a huge game on deck at Lambeau Field next week, the Pats are on upset alert. Patriots 19, Lions 17

The Wager: The Pats are great, but they’ve entered overvalued territory. Coming off wins as an underdog is one thing, but spotting seven points against the league’s best defense (that has already shut down Aaron Rodgers this season) is a completely different element. Lions +7

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings

Friday Consensus Line: Packers -9.5, total of 48.5

The Pick: The Packers have posted back-to-back fifty-burgers. That’s certainly impressive in this day and age, but it’s important to note that the stompings of the Bears and Eagles came at home. Green Bay is just 2-3 away from home this season, with only one of those victories coming by more than a field goal. In fact, the Packers have been held to 23 points or less in three of those contests.

You may remember Minnesota’s 42-10 loss to Green Bay back in Week 5, but there is nothing to take away from that contest. The Vikings were forced to start third-string (dumpster fire) quarterback Christian Ponder on a short week, on the road at Lambeau. Since that loss, Minnesota has allowed less than 19 points per game, as head coach Mike Zimmer has put his stamp on this defense. The Vikings have also upgraded at quarterback with Teddy Bridgewater, who has an opportunity to move the ball on a Packers defense that is below average on the road. Maybe I’ve lost my mind ... Vikings 27, Packers 26

The Wager: Green Bay was a nine-point favorite at home to the Vikings in Week 5. Sure, the Packers are better now, but so are the Vikings. This price tag is extremely inflated because of recent results, and I simply can’t pass up on that. The spot and numbers both advocate a play on the underdog. Vikings +9.5

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts

Friday Consensus Line: Colts -14, total of 50.5

The Pick: For the third straight season, the Jaguars find themselves with a 1-9 record. There’s no denying that the Jags are an embarrassment to the game of football, and even with an extra week to prepare, I don’t like their chances against the Colts. By now, you’re probably aware of Andrew Luck’s insane ATS numbers coming off a loss. You’re also probably aware that the Colts steamrolled the Jags 44-17 back in Week 3, with Luck tossing four touchdown passes in the process.

I don’t know what changes this week. The Colts' offense will regress a bit with Ahmad Bradshaw on the shelf (more Trent Richardson 1-yard carries on the horizon), but it won't matter all that much against the lowly Jaguars. Jacksonville has been more competitive as of late, and when I say competitive, I mean the Jags lost by 14, 10 and 14 points in their past three contests. Colts 28, Jaguars 14

The Wager: This point spread looks pretty accurate to me. I’d strongly consider the under if I didn’t have visions of Luck throwing for seven touchdown passes. Frankly, I hope not watch a single second of this on Sunday. Pass

Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans

Friday Consensus Line: Texans -1.5, total of 43.5

The Pick: It’ll take more than a win against the Saints for me to start believing in the Bengals again. Cincinnati was 9-for-13 on third downs last week and New Orleans didn’t manage to score in its first two trips to the red zone, or else that game may have unfolded differently. The Texans ran the ball at will against a porous Browns run defense, and they should be able to employ that same game plan against a Bengals defense that’s just as bad statistically (4.4 YPC). Similarly to last week, Ryan Mallett can work out of manageable situations and keep the chains moving.

Reliant Stadium has been a house of horrors for the Bengals, who managed just 198 yards of total offense the last time they battled Houston on the road, back in a 2012 wild-card game. If Andy Dalton had progressed since then, I wouldn’t put much stock into his struggles against the Texans, but, if anything, Dalton has gotten worse. Texans 20, Bengals 16

The Wager: I really have no idea what to do with this game. The line looks pretty accurate to me, as I believe Cincinnati is the slightly better team. In a game that I expect to be close from start to finish, I’d consider playing the Bengals in a teaser, but I could see Dalton throwing a late pick-6 to put me in orbit. Pass

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Chicago Bears

Friday Consensus Line: Bears -6, total of 46

The Pick: The Bucs are still in the mix of things in the laughable NFC South and this game will undoubtedly be their Super Bowl. Head coach Lovie Smith and quarterback Josh McCown both return to Chicago for the first time in a game that has surely been circled on each of their calendars since the schedule was released. McCown finally turned in a good performance last week and should duplicate that effort against a Bears defense that's surrendered an average of 32.5 points over its last seven games. Both McCown and Smith are familiar with this defense and how to beat it.

Chicago bounced back last Sunday, but Jay Cutler threw another two picks in the process, cementing the fact that he simply cannot be trusted. The Bears are still under immense pressure to perform, and that’s a recipe for disaster when you have a quarterback that continuously buckles under pressure. The Bucs may be 2-8, but aside from terrible losses against Baltimore and Atlanta, they've been highly competitive this season, especially away from home. Bucs 23, Bears 20

The Wager: I fail to see how the Bears are deserving of laying six points here. Chicago opened as a three-point favorite to the Vikings last week - the same Vikings that went to overtime against the Bucs a few weeks ago. Aside from the line value with the Bucs, the Bears simply can’t be trusted at home, where they’ve been embarrassingly bad under Marc Trestman. Bucs +6

Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks

Friday Consensus Line: Seahawks -7, total of 41

The Pick: I’ve been expecting the Cardinals' fall from grace for a while now, and I think this could be the game where the tides turn. Let’s face facts: Drew Stanton is a significant downgrade from Carson Palmer. The Cardinals won in spite of Stanton last week, not because of him. The Seahawks’ defense has regressed from a year ago, but still boasts some elite talent that should force Stanton into a couple big mistakes.

The Seahawks’ offense has been highly inconsistent this season, but scoring at home has not been an issue. Seattle has averaged 30.6 points per game at CenturyLink Field this season. Running the ball will be an issue against a stout Cardinals front seven, but shutting down Marshawn Lynch is easier said than done, even without Max Unger on the offensive line. This game draws a lot of comparisons to the Alabama-Mississippi State game from last weekend, and I think we’ll see a similar result for the home side. Seahawks 20, Cardinals 10

The Wager: The oddsmakers are really telling us something with this line. Seattle has not played well at all but is laying seven points against a 9-1 team? Riiiight. This is a bait job of epic proportions, but I’m not interested in laying a touchdown against one of the league’s better defenses. Instead, I’ll opt to use the Seahawks in a teaser, as I’m pretty confident they'll win this game. Seahawks pk (teaser part 1)

St. Louis Rams @ San Diego Chargers

Friday Consensus Line: Chargers -5, total of 43.5

The Pick: There’s no doubt that the Chargers are headed in the wrong direction, but, luckily for San Diego, they catch the Rams coming off a monumental upset of the Seahawks. St. Louis followed up upsets of the Seahawks and 49ers earlier this season with drubbings at the hands of the Chiefs and Cardinals, although the latter had a misleading final score. The Chargers got a bunch of defenders back from injury last week and were able to put the clamps down on the Raiders, although that’s not really saying much.

The main issue for San Diego lies within its offense. Philip Rivers has been dealing with a rib injury, and it’s certainly showed as he is nowhere near the quarterback who was an MVP candidate earlier this season. The Chargers also have no semblance of a running game, which makes matters even more difficult for Rivers. With that being said, there’s a good chance the Rams were sipping margaritas all week, and that they’ve put absolutely no effort into preparing for this one. Chargers 19, Rams 9

The Wager: I’m pretty torn here. Ordinarily I’d be all over the Chargers, but the injury to Rivers is a major concern. I like the spot and the number, but the thought of laying points with this current Chargers offense gives me major anxiety. Pass

Miami Dolphins @ Denver Broncos

Friday Consensus Line: Broncos -7, total of 48

The Pick: Peyton Manning is capable of doing magical things coming off of a loss, but this appears to be a nightmare matchup for the Broncos. Denver could be without four skill position players in Emmanuel Sanders (doubtful), Montee Ball (out), Ronnie Hillman (out) and Julius Thomas (questionable). St. Louis set the blueprint for shutting down the Broncos’ offense last week, and Miami has the ponies to replicate that performance. With a solid pass rush and a defense that just doesn’t give up anything easy in general, Denver will be in tough again.

The Dolphins also possess a ball-control offense that is capable of keeping Manning on the sidelines for long stretches at a time. Ryan Tannehill is content to dink and dunk his way up the field and that's a good counter to a Broncos defense that excels at getting after the quarterback. Miami has also had a few extra days to prepare for this one, although the Dolphins could struggle with the cold weather that they’re not accustomed to. At the end of the day, I’m not picking against Manning at home coming off of loss, but this game could come down to the wire. Broncos 24, Dolphins 20

The Wager: The Dolphins have allowed just 11 points per game over the last five weeks. They also haven’t lost by more than four points since Week 3. These factors make Miami very intriguing as an underdog but I just don’t feel like I’m getting enough points. Instead, I’ll opt to use the Dolphins in the second leg of a teaser as I’m confident that they can keep this game within two touchdowns. Dolphins +14 (teaser part 2)

Washington Redskins @ San Francisco 49ers

Friday Consensus Line: 49ers -9, total of 44

The Pick: Two years ago, Colin Kaepernick vs. Robert Griffin III would have had mass appeal. Now, not so much. The 49ers have done little to impress this season, having won just one game by more than six points since Week 1. Washington has its fair share of issues on defense, but is stout against the run (4.0 YPC) and boasts a strong pass rush (25 sacks) - both of which have posed major issues for San Francisco this season.

Meanwhile, the Redskins continue to put up above average offensive numbers with nothing to show for it. RG3 has been extremely inconsistent once again this season, but he’ll give a top effort this week after being scrutinized by the media. Aldon Smith has returned for the 49ers, but injuries continue to mount on the 49ers’ defense and there’s definitely an opportunity for the Redskins’ offense to exploit some weaknesses. With a huge divisional game against the Seahawks on deck and my incessant need to be a hero, I’ll go with the major upset here. Redskins 20, 49ers 17

The Wager: The Redskins are admittedly a tough team to back because of all the turmoil surrounding the team. With that being said, this line is simply too high. San Francisco has a penchant for playing close games, and Washington heads out on the road, where they’ve actually played a lot better this season. Redskins +9

Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants

Friday Consensus Line: Cowboys -3 -125, total of 47.5

The Pick: The Giants continue to find ways to lose in heartbreaking fashion. Last week, Eli Manning’s five interceptions did them in as their defense held up against the 49ers. New York’s running game is more effective with Rashad Jennings back in the lineup, but unless the Giants run the ball on every single down, Manning will continue to be prone to mistakes.

Meanwhile, Dallas should face little resistance from the Giants’ defense. New York is awful at stopping the run (4.9 YPC), which means that DeMarco Murray should continue where he left off prior to the bye. Murray will rip off chunks of yardage at a time, allowing for Tony Romo to work out of favorable situations all night. The Cowboys have to avoid looking ahead to their big showdown with the Eagles on Thanksgiving Day, but even if they do get caught flat here, they may still have enough to hold off the lowly Giants. Cowboys 31, Giants 27

The Wager: The Cowboys are extremely tempting in this spot, but I promised myself that I wouldn’t back any of the teams in major look-ahead spots to next week. New York is terrible, but the Giants still probably put in their best effort against a divisional opponent on national television. Too many red flags. Pass

#SuperContest

The OddsShark.com Super Computer challenged some NFL experts to some friendly competition in this year’s WestGate SuperContest. I finished last week at 2-3 (yes, again), and have still only posted back-to-back winning weeks once this season. Fortunately, I'm off to a good start this week as I hit the Raiders +7 on Thursday night. Rounding out this week's card are the Lions, Vikings, Bucs and Redskins. I can only imagine the look of disgust on the face of the WestGate employee who had to enter these selections into their computer system.  All of the progress can be monitored here and my picks will be uploaded after the Friday night deadline.

Picks Summary