Why did the Vikings give Kyle Rudolph breakout star money, before his breakout?

Let’s be clear on something up front here: I like Kyle Rudolph.

I like the ample target he provides, and how the Minnesota Vikings tight end uses it to create space, especially in the red zone where he caught nine touchdown passes during his last healthy season (and 15 over 39 career games). I like a slimmer Rudolph, as after shedding 15 pounds this offseason he’s much better positioned to become the next breakout star in a Norv Turner offense, one that’s historically been a factory for quick tight end explosions.

But why pay for the breakout, before the breakout?

That’s what the Vikings did by signing Rudolph to a five-year extension last night worth a total of $36.5 million, $19.5 million of which is guaranteed. The math there works out to an average annual base salary of $7.3 million, making Rudolph the fifth highest paid tight end.

Soak in these names: Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski, Jason Witten, and Vernon Davis. That’s the company Rudolph now keeps as a top five tight end earner. The guaranteed cash is always the real money line, and there Rudolph is only slightly behind those four (Davis leads the group with a contract paying $23 million guaranteed, Graham was just given $20.9 million, Witten was paid $19 million in 2011, and Gronk is much lower at $13.7 million). In fairness, much of that money is guaranteed for injury only, and as a practical matter only $7.46 million is fully guaranteed. The long-term commitment is softened then, though the base salary is still high.

Combined those four position re-defining names have been to 15 Pro Bowls, while recording seven seasons with at least 1,000 receiving yards, and also seven with double-digit touchdowns. Rudolph hasn’t touched either of those statistical plateaus yet.

He came close on the scoring front in 2012, but that hulking red-zone presence was his only trick. Despite nearly putting two digits in his touchdown column, Rudolph finished with only 493 receiving yards at a per catch rate of 9.3. Just this past season Davis, whose yearly pay is only a tick above Rudolph’s now at $7.35 million, averaged 16.4 yards per catch (with 850 yards in total and 13 touchdowns).

The financial numbers don’t align with Rudolph’s body of work, so then what’s communicated by this contract is a signing off, and a seal of approval. Turner, the tight end oracle, has been given an offseason to observe his new student, both in person and on tape. After much thought he emerged from his lair and said “yes, he will do”.

The word of such a mighty tight end scheming leader is not taken lightly. It’s treated with the sort of gospel status it deserves after Turner flipped Jordan Cameron into a “pass catcher” with 80 receptions and 917 yards during only his third season, doing it with the dark trio of Brandon Weeden, Brian Hoyer, and Jason Campbell as his quarterbacks.

Fine, let’s assume Rudolph’s bust out goes as planned, a future that becomes even easier to see if Teddy Bridgewater continues to impress in training camp and wins the starting quarterback job, with the rookie then needing a cozy tight end security blanket. But his breakout happens when he’s still playing one more season on his rookie contract, and despite the presence of Turner and all the tight end promise that brings, Rudolph is still asked to prove himself for one more year. Oh, and he’s also politely asked to stay healthy after missing eight games in 2013.

What happens if he produces top five tight end numbers in that scenario? He’s given a top five tight end contract, the same one he received last night anyway. But he would have earned it.