Why a healthy Rob Gronkowski changes everything for the Patriots
Rob Gronkowski breaks often. His 2013 season was shortened on both ends, first back and wrist surgery that kept him out until Week 7, and then luck betrayed him with an ACL tear in Week 14. His grand games played total last year: seven, and now over the past two seasons he’s missed 14 weeks.
But recovering has never really been a problem. Gronkowski has shown himself to be a quick healer, with his recovery diet of nightclub powerbombs and body shots no doubt igniting his inner armor.
So he’ll reportedly be fine for Week 1, and the New England Patriots can return to their blessed Gronk-filled life.
That’s the rosy word from Paul Perillo of Patriots.com, who wrote recently that “all signs point towards” Gronkowski being healthy and ready immediately. At one point starting the season on the Physically Unable to Perform list (which mandates a six-game absence) was a possibility.
What exactly does Gronk’s return mean? A team that leaned heavily on the run to win games in 2013 (12 of them, incredibly) can now revert to its natural state: Gronk smashing.
The Patriots’ record in 2013 even without Gronkowski and their top five receivers from the previous season speaks to the forever bond between Brady, Bill Belichick, and Josh McDaniels. Together they can manipulate an offense to fit any situation. But the preferred setting is an offense that runs through Gronkowski.
Removing any premier pass catcher from an offense is damaging, and potentially season threatening. Go ahead and ask the Lions to exist without Calvin Johnson, or the Bengals without A.J. Green. But the reliance grows even further with the Patriots and Gronkowski due to the utter lack of chemistry between Brady and his other targets.
There’s a reason why Julian Edelman was targeted 151 times last year. Brady felt most comfortable in his trusting hands, just as he does with Gronkowski.
Gronkowski truly appeared in only six games plus two quarters and a bit during the 2013 season, with his ACL tear coming early in the second half of Week 14. His numbers during even that short period show how drastically the character of this Patriots offense changes when Gronk is doing his spiking.
Despite that minimal playing time, Gronkowski was on the receiving end for 16 percent of Brady’s touchdown passes (4).
Of Gronkowski’s 39 receptions, 10 of them went for 20 yards or more. That means every fourth catch netted some pretty chunky yardage.
Gronkowski’s 592 receiving yards were still good enough for third among all Patriots pass catchers. Despite appearing in five fewer games, he was still well within reach of second-place Danny Amendola (633).
That total yardage leads to an average of 84.6 yards per week, a pace of 1,353 over an entire season. Sure, projecting like that can be dangerous, but it feels safer given Gronkowski’s history and target volume. He’s still not too far removed from 2011, when he set the single-season record for receptions (90) and receiving yards (1,327) for a tight end.
About that target volume: Gronkowski was targeted 66 times, or nearly a quarter of Brady’s pass attempts between weeks 7 and 14. That included four double-digit target games, and a high of 17 looks during his first game back.
Brady eclipsed the 300-yard passing mark six times last season, and four of those games came with Gronkowski healthy. One of them when he didn’t was still a shining example of Gronk’s power: in Week 7 Brady passed for 228 yards, and 114 of them went to his prized tight end.
The Patriots increasingly became a running team over the past two seasons as their offensive personality transitioned during Gronkowski’s absences. They can still do that, but their natural state features short passes to whichever shifty slot type you prefer (Edelman or Amendola), and then even more grinding through Gronkowski up the seams.
They can still win without Gronk, but winning with him is a lot more fun. And usually, much easier.