49ers' path forward may lead them back to Kaepernick
Colin Kaepernick will opt out of his contract and hit free agency this offseason in search of a fresh start to his slumping career.
If he doesn't, the San Francisco 49ers will cut him to avoid paying him $14.5 million in 2017.
That's the prevailing wisdom in NFL circles, at least, but we're starting to see signs that it might not be what actually transpires.
New general manager John Lynch and head coach Kyle Shanahan certainly don't appear to believe a split with Kaepernick is inevitable.
The pair met with Kaepernick on Wednesday and Lynch described the meeting as "a really positive discussion," adding, "I think Colin left excited and we left excited."
It's hard to believe the prospect of a divorce is what has them excited. Is it possible the two sides are laying the groundwork for an agreement that keeps Kaepernick in the Bay Area, at least for one more season?
Maybe it's not as far-fetched as it seems.
Kaepernick surely wants the chance to start in 2017, and there may not be a team other than the 49ers willing to give him that chance. Though the 49ers own the No. 2 pick in the draft and many analysts expect them to select a quarterback, Lynch has indicated he won't force the issue if there's not a passer he deems worthy of the pick.
He's right to take that approach. With a six-year deal in hand and a roster that's as bereft of talent as any in pro football, Lynch could approach the coming season similar to the way the Browns did last season: tear the roster down to its foundation before even thinking about rebuilding.
Kaepernick could be the 49ers' Robert Griffin III, a bridge starter who can play until the team improves its overall talent enough to consider adding a rookie quarterback. Would the 49ers pay $14.5 million for a bridge starter? Probably not, but with the second-most salary cap space in the league, the 49ers could offer Kaepernick more than any other team in the NFL would be willing to.
But what's in it for Kaepernick, you might ask. If he knows he's not the long-term answer in San Francisco, why not move on, even if it means accepting less money elsewhere?
It's conceivable Kaepernick views this version of the 49ers as enough of a fresh start. There's no Chip Kelly here, nor Trent Baalke. An all-new regime is running the show, and it's possible Kaepernick and Shanahan will hit it off. Shanahan has a proven track record of getting the most out of mobile quarterbacks (his scheme made Griffin the Offensive Rookie of the Year in Washington) and Kaepernick could rehabilitate his on-field reputation under the hottest offensive coach in football.
There's also the matter of Kaepernick's life outside of football. He made headlines with his anthem protests in 2016 and might not be keen to answer questions about them in a new city. In San Francisco, Kaepernick can continue his protests (if he wishes to) as well as his work on social causes without it being front-page news.
We should be cautious not to read too much into Lynch's characterization of his meeting with Kaepernick, and it's important to note that any number of factors (like the 49ers drafting a quarterback at No. 2 or trading for someone like Kirk Cousins) could force Kaepernick out the door in an instant.
But this is a situation that's more fluid than many fans and analysts realize, and it's not out of the question that Kaepernick will be back in red and gold next season.