Breakout or Fakeout: Is Olivier Vernon worth the money?
Olivier Vernon's decision to land with the New York Giants on a five-year, $85-million contract made for one of the more surprising stories of an eventful 2016 offseason.
The now-former Miami Dolphins standout was coming off a productive 2015 campaign, but few would have predicted that he'd command a deal making him the highest-paid defensive end in NFL history.
Might the Giants have made a mistake in guaranteeing $52.5 million to a pass-rusher who's racked up double-digit sacks just once in his first four seasons?
Is he for real?
The case for Vernon
The money handed to Vernon by the Giants in free agency was certainly eye-popping, but there is significant evidence that the pass-rusher has yet to hit his ceiling.
Very rarely do fully-formed, elite edge-rushers hit the market, so teams often are forced to overpay for players with star potential. And Vernon is definitely a star in the making.
At just 25 years old, Vernon is still yet to hit his prime. Admittedly, he hasn't put up the type of sack numbers the elite pass-rushers in the league produce, but the last half of the 2015 season highlighted his potential.
From Week 8 onwards, Vernon was the most disruptive pass-rusher in the league. He racked up 57 total pressures, eight sacks, and 33 defensive stops, according to Pro Football Focus.
It's always a concern when a player excels in a contract year, but it's too easy to judge a pass-rusher simply by his sack numbers. Vernon produced when tasked with being Miami's top rusher with Cameron Wake injured, consistently causing trouble in his opponents' backfield.
It may be unrealistic for Vernon to truly live up to his enormous contract, but as part of a Giants defensive line that's stocked with talent, he'll continue to improve his game and prove he deserves to be mentioned alongside the league's premier edge-rushers.
- Browne
The case against Vernon
There is no denying that Vernon has been a fairly productive pass-rusher to this point in his NFL career. Joining a strong Giants defensive line even puts the former third-round pick in the best possible situation to take his game to another level.
But when handing out a record-setting contract, both in terms of overall value and guarantees, shouldn't a team be looking for a player who is already a proven difference maker?
Instead, the Giants will find themselves hoping that their prized free-agent addition sees his production explode working as part of a talented front four.
The problem with that logic lies with that fact that a strong supporting cast is nothing new for Vernon. He lined up opposite Wake for the first three years of his career, and Ndamukong Suh was still there to draw attention on the interior when the four-time Pro Bowler missed time due to injury last season.
Despite the favorable situation throughout his time in Miami, though, Vernon enters his fifth NFL season having tallied just 29 sacks. And while raw sack numbers certainly aren't the be-all-end-all, the contract can't possibly be justified unless his average season total doubles.
Expecting such a development is unrealistic, to say the least. Perhaps that's why Miami pulled the $12.734-million transition tag tender as the placeholder for a potential long-term deal, simply letting Vernon walk away for nothing.
- Wilkins
You decide
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