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After record-setting deal, Luck faces immense pressure to erase 2015

Jasen Vinlove / USA TODAY Sports

The Indianapolis Colts signed quarterback Andrew Luck to the richest contract in NFL history on Wednesday, and they made the right decision.

Luck is as bankable a young franchise quarterback as you're going to find in football, taking his team to the AFC Championship in an MVP-caliber season in 2014 after making the playoffs in each of his first two years.

There is no metric by which one could reasonably argue the Colts made the wrong decision in locking up Luck, but that doesn't mean he won't be under immense pressure to prove himself when Week 1 rolls around.

Before ending a disastrous 2015 campaign with a lacerated kidney, Luck struggled to run the offense he excelled in during the first three years of his career. Luck threw eight interceptions over the first three weeks of the season, and the Colts scuffled to a 1-2 start they couldn't recover from.

It's been reported that Luck suffered torn cartilage in his ribs early in the season which contributed to his struggles, but it's unknown if his poor play can be totally linked to injury or if new offensive personnel combined with a mental regression and a weak offensive line are to blame. It could be a combination of all these factors, but we won't know until the 2016 season gets underway.

It could be said that heading into 2016, Luck will face real pressure for the first time in his career. The expectations of being the No. 1 overall pick in 2012 were mitigated by an understanding that it could take time for Luck to become a superstar, much like the Colts' previous No. 1 overall selection Peyton Manning.

Now that he's earning $87 million guaranteed, the absolute basement assumption for Luck's production is the 4,761-yard, 40 touchdown season he achieved in 2014. From a team standpoint, anything short of deep postseason runs will be considered a failure. With every team in the AFC South making big improvements in the offseason, that prospect has become far more difficult for the Colts.

It's very likely Luck will turn things around. But if he begins 2016 like he did 2015, the pressure will mount, and whispers of a regression could begin in earnest.

For the Colts' part, they've invested heavily in the greatest boon to Luck's prospects: the offensive line. Drafting center Ryan Kelly and taking tackles in the third and fifth rounds proves the franchise understands the importance of keeping Luck upright, and more importantly, is confident in his ability to stay protected.

It would be best for everybody - especially shaky decision makers Ryan Grigson and Chuck Pagano - if Luck came out on fire to start the season. Otherwise, the questions could add another layer of doubt to the Colts' long-term plans.

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