Fantasy: Which RBs will exceed expectations in 2016?

Five months remain before the first fantasy points of the season are awarded, which is a depressing fact, but also gives us time to assess how player values have changed over the offseason.

Running back is the most volatile fantasy position from year to year, as injuries and ineffectiveness can turn early-round picks into instant regrets while stars emerge from the deepest spots on the roster.

Here's a look at the rushers who are currently undervalued and will continue to be until public perception catches up to the reality of their situations.

Who will exceed expectations?

• Quarterbacks
• Running Backs
• Wide Receivers
• Tight Ends

C.J. Anderson

Fantasy owners who drafted Anderson watched their first-round pick struggle during the first six weeks of the 2015 season. He failed to top 50 rushing yards in any of those games, averaging 2.69 yards per carry, while being held out of the end zone entirely.

Following the team's Week 7 bye, Anderson showed signs of life, including two 100-yard efforts, but it's his play down the stretch and into the postseason that warrants closer inspection. When the Broncos needed him most, Anderson delivered five straight games with 70-plus yards on the ground and touchdowns in four of his last five outings. He averaged 15.6 carries per game during that time and his yards per carry rose to 5.2.

After a brief flirtation with the Dolphins as a restricted free agent, the Broncos retained Anderson, who will now serve as the lead back in an offense powered by its running game.

Gary Kubiak's line will need to adapt to the new rule outlawing any form of chop block. However, the arrival of Russell Okung and Donald Stephenson, along with the maturation of youngsters Max Garcia, Matt Paradis, and Ty Sambrailo, could help solidify the unit.

In Anderson, the Broncos have a 25-year-old load-bearing running back who finished strong each of the last two seasons and is finally ready to provide the RB1 numbers that owners expected last year.

Dion Lewis

There are risks attached to every back on this list, and as long as those risks are apparent, ADPs will be kept in check.

Not only is Lewis coming off a torn ACL, but he plays for renowned fantasy torturer Bill Belichick, a coach with a history of mixing up his backfield usage depending on the Patriots' weekly scheme. That might cause cautious owners to stay away, creating a value opportunity.

Lewis was in the process of proving his consistency when his season came to a premature end. In the six games prior to the Week 9 injury, he averaged 94.9 total yards per game (36.7 rushing, 58.2 receiving) and saw double-digit touches in all but one contest. The 5-foot-8, 195-pound back also scored four times, twice as a runner and twice as a receiver.

Further proof the Patriots realized the importance of their newfound weapon: they gave him an extension in early October. As long as the team doesn't draft a back early (they don't have a first-round pick, but have two second-rounders), Lewis should continue to see significant work.

Reports surrounding his recovery have been positive, meaning he's expected to return during training camp. When healthy, Lewis is a dangerous pass-catching threat out of the backfield and, despite his size, he's a competent between-the-tackles rusher as well. Fantasy owners who draft the 25-year-old will be getting an RB2 with RB1 upside, especially in PPR leagues.

Ryan Mathews

Mathews was the best back on the Eagles' roster last season, outplaying DeMarco Murray. An offseason trade sent Murray to the Titans, leaving Mathews at the top of the depth chart with a chance to make serious fantasy noise if the team doesn't draft a ball carrier in the first few rounds.

Durability has always been a concern with Mathews. The 28-year-old has missed 23 games over his six NFL campaigns, and underwent groin surgery in January. Mathews has appeared in 14 or more games just twice, but he topped 1,400 combined yards both seasons. The ability is there for those willing to take the gamble.

After signing with the Eagles, Mathews posted a 5.0 yards-per-carry average on a limited workload last season (107 carries over 13 games). He also caught 20 passes and visited the end zone on seven occasions.

Running back is often an opportunity-based position. The Murray trade left an opening, the arrival of new head coach Doug Pederson from Kansas City should result in a run-heavy attack, and the addition of offensive guard Brandon Brooks will help restore the interior of the Eagles' offensive line.

If Ezekiel Elliott is still on the board at eight, the Eagles should hand him a midnight green jersey and build the offense around him. However, if Philadelphia decides to address its backfield in the later rounds, Mathews could enter the season as the starter and a potential RB2 in fantasy.

Deep Shots

Chris Thompson finished with 35 receptions in a very small role for the Redskins last season. With Alfred Morris gone, Matt Jones is expected to start while Thompson functions as the pass-catching back. Offseason shoulder surgery may sideline him in training camp, but Thompson could surprise fantasy owners with a Darren Sproles/Shane Vereen-type season.

Jerick McKinnon is a favorite of the Vikings' coaching staff, but unlike the other names on this list, his path to fantasy relevance would require an injury to his team's starter, Adrian Peterson. The 31-year-old Peterson is coming off a league-leading 327 carries in 2016, and the likelihood he'll continue to be the textbook definition of durable decreases each year. McKinnon has flashed when on the field, including averages of 77 total yards and a touchdown per game over the final three weeks last season.

Zach Zenner was starting to carve out playing time in the second month of the season before being forced to injured reserve. Last year's preseason star will now compete with recent signing Stevan Ridley for the right to replace Joique Bell as the Lions' power back. The winner will play alongside the explosive Ameer Abdullah and pass-catching specialist Theo Riddick. Zenner is a low-cost investment with intriguing upside.