Bracketology: Oklahoma, UNC, Xavier, Villanova claim top seeds
Every Saturday, for the remainder of the season, theScore will present a look at how the upcoming March Madness tournament will shake out with a prediction of the bracket. This will rank teams 1-16 in each of the four regions, and include the potential opponents for the tournament-opening First Four.
Midwest Region
(1) Oklahoma vs. (16) Fairleigh Dickinson/Texas Southern
(8) Colorado vs. (9) Notre Dame
College basketball's version of musical chairs at the top has calmed down recently, with OU holding down the No. 1 ranking for three consecutive weeks. The Sooners will make it a month straight at the top of the charts if they can hold off the Wildcats in the Octagon of Doom this weekend.
Colorado has quietly been building its resume in the new year with quality wins over Oregon, Oregon State, and Cal. Josh Scott (17.3 PPG, 9.4 RPG) is the kind of big man that could carry a team to the second weekend.
(5) Utah vs. (12) Cincinnati
(4) Purdue vs. (13) Akron
The Utes are one of the best shooting teams from inside the 3-point stripe, and a lot of that has to do with their future NBA lottery pick, Jakob Poeltl. The 7-foot Austrian is 14th in the country in field-goal percentage at 65 percent.
A second-round clash with Purdue's hulking front line would be appointment television. The Boilermakers trot out two skilled centers (A.J. Hammons, Isaac Haas) and Caleb "Biggie" Swanigan, a highly touted freshman forward who has caught the attention of NBA scouts.
(6) Indiana vs. (11) Butler
(3) West Virginia vs. (14) Stephen F. Austin
Tom Crean has gone from the hot seat to potentially winning the Big Ten in just one season. The Hoosiers haven't squared off against an RPI top 25 team as of yet, but they've only dropped one game since Dec. 2. Butler is trending in the other direction, losing four of its last seven.
A 17-point road loss to Florida prompted a local paper in West Virginia to refer to the Mountaineers as "Mess Virginia." Bob Huggins' defensive-minded squad responded with a five-point road win in Ames over 13th-ranked Iowa State.
(7) Wichita State vs. (10) Florida/VCU
(2) Iowa vs. (15) IPFW
Wichita State is one of the nation's hottest teams, and Gregg Marshall's backcourt of Fred VanVleet and Ron Baker has been an absolute terror on the defensive end. The Shockers have stolen the ball on 10.3 percent of their opponents' possessions, good for 11th-best in the country.
The Hawkeyes have been very efficient this season on the offensive end. Iowa has the fifth-lowest turnover rate in all of college basketball. The Mastodons from Fort Wayne could keep it close for a while, though, thanks to their 3-point shooting prowess (41.1%, 8th).
South Region
(1) UNC vs. (16) Hampton/New Mexico State
(8) UConn vs. (9) Valpo
Marvin Menzies' Aggies are led by Pascal Siakam, a 6-foot-9 rebounding machine with a second-round NBA draft grade to his name. The Tar Heels won't need a big game from Marcus Paige to advance to the second round, but they'll need their star point guard to rebound from his shooting slump. Paige is just 12-for-53 (22.6%) from 3-point range in ACC play.
Look out for UConn now that Amida Brimah is back. If the big man from Ghana can return to form, we could see another vintage run from the Huskies.
(5) Kentucky vs. (12) Arkansas Little Rock
(4) Iowa State vs. (13) UAB
The Wildcats' near miss at Phog Allen was an indication that they can elevate their game, while their loss at Tennessee confirms they can still play down to their competition.
The Blazers are credited with an assist on 70 percent of their made baskets, the sixth-highest rate in the nation. Last season, they knocked off Iowa State as a 14 seed, so it will be interesting to see if the Cyclones and new head coach Steve Prohm can avenge last season's upset.
(6) Texas vs. (11) LSU/Cal
(3) Texas A&M vs. (14) UNC Wilmington
The Longhorns have three top-25 wins in the last month, but a harrowing stretch of OU, Iowa State, WVU, and Baylor awaits them in the coming weeks. Ben Simmons and LSU still have plenty of work to do to solidify their position in the field. The Bayou Bengals' narrow loss to OU may come back to haunt them on Selection Sunday.
Texas A&M is one of the nation's top teams, but recent road losses to Arkansas and Vandy raise questions about their ability to close out weaker opponents away from College Station.
(7) Pitt vs. (10) Duke
(2) Kansas vs. (15) North Florida
It's rare to get a matchup between Naismith Coach of the Year Award winners in the first round, but Duke and Pitt have both struggled to live up to expectations this season. Amile Jefferson's potential return from injury remains the big question mark for Duke.
The Jayhawks' 18-4 record belies the fact that they've struggled away from Lawrence. KU is just 4-4 in road and neutral-site games.
West Region
(1) Xavier vs. (16) Weber State
(8) St. Mary's (CA) vs. (9) Syracuse
Xavier is an aggressive bunch that loves to drive it to the tin and rack up foul shots. They make nearly 20 foul shots per game, while drawing a foul on 27.8 percent of their possessions (8th). Weber State's Joel Bolomboy will have his hands full, to say the least. Bolomboy, a double-double waiting to happen, already has two games with 20-plus points and rebounds.
St. Mary's double-digit loss to BYU is troubling, but the Gaels still control their own destiny in the WCC. The Orange have won six of their last seven, and a visit from fellow bubble team Florida State on Thursday is a critical contest.
(5) Baylor vs. (12) San Diego State
(4) Dayton vs. (13) Belmont
A Bear-Aztec tussle would be reminiscent of an old Big East slugfest. Both teams hold opponents in the 60s and neither gives an inch in the rebounding department. Winston Shepard would have the unenviable task of keeping Baylor’s Rico Gathers (10.4 RPG) off the glass.
Dayton's early-season win over Iowa is looking better and better. If the Flyers are able to win out, including the A-10 tournament in Brooklyn, a No. 2 seed is on the table.
(6) Southern Cal vs. (11) George Washington
(3) Michigan State vs. (14) UC Irvine
The Colonials desperately need a sweep of VCU and St. Joe's in the coming days to feel comfortable about their at-large chances. The Trojans can enjoy a week off after soundly defeating Washington and UCLA in back-to-back games.
The Spartans have followed up their three-game losing streak with a three-game winning streak, and Denzel Valentine has been the catalyst. The senior is averaging 19 points, nine rebounds, and seven assists during their three-game run.
(7) Michigan vs. (10) Gonzaga
(2) Oregon vs. (15) UNC Asheville
The Zags began the season ranked ninth in the AP Poll, and have failed to live up to the lofty hype. The next two weeks provide a shot at redemption for the Bulldogs, however, as they travel to 12th-ranked SMU and host St. Mary's. Win them both and they could be back in the top 25.
Oregon continues to climb the rankings thanks to a suffocating defense that forces 15 turnovers per game while swatting six shots. UNC Asheville, looking to make its first appearance in the Big Dance since 2012, has a rare starting lineup in which every player averages double digits.
East Region
(1) Villanova vs. (16) Bucknell
(8) Florida State vs. (9) Washington
Ken Pomeroy's luck ranking, which measures the deviation between what a team should achieve in close games and the actual outcomes, indicates that Bucknell is one of the nation's unluckiest teams. The Bison, however, have turned things around in Patriot League play, winning nine of 11 in conference. Villanova won't need much luck to advance, thanks to their sixth-ranked scoring defense.
The Seminoles only have three wins over teams in this field, making next week's slate of Syracuse and Miami (FL) critical. As Andrew Andrews goes, so go the Huskies, evidenced by their near loss to the Sun Devils in which Andrews had just six points in regulation.
(5) Providence vs. (12) Monmouth
(4) Miami (FL) vs. (13) Chattanooga
If you like guard play, Providence-Monmouth is the game for you. The Friars' Kris Dunn and the Hawks' Justin Robinson can light it up on the offensive end and pick your pocket on defense.
If Tonye Jekiri can stay out of foul trouble, there are very few flaws on this Hurricanes team. If he does have to ride the pine, a team like Chattanooga could ruin Miami's postseason and plenty of brackets coast to coast. The Mocs knocked off Dayton on the road back in December.
(6) Arizona vs. (11) Vanderbilt
(3) Maryland vs. (14) Stony Brook
Vanderbilt scored a major upset Thursday night, routing Texas A&M at home and vaulting into the field. With five straight winnable SEC games ahead of them, the Commodores could turn their entire season around.
Maryland's exciting freshman forward, Diamond Stone, will get to duke it out with Stony Brook's Jameel Warney. Warney, the two-time America East Player of the Year, has the Seawolves on a 14-game winning streak.
(7) South Carolina vs. (10) St. Joseph's
(2) Virginia vs. (15) Columbia
All three of South Carolina's losses this season have come on the road, and none of them have been particularly close. A visit to College Station to face an angry Aggies team fresh off a loss isn't what the doctor ordered. Despite an 18-4 record, St. Joe's is 0-4 against the RPI top 50, which means their Feb. 17 date with Dayton could make or break their at-large hopes.
Virginia's resume is jam-packed with great wins, including triumphs over West Virginia, Villanova, Miami (FL), and Louisville. The result of a late-season visit from North Carolina may determine which ACC program finds itself on the one line come mid-March.