Deal or No Deal - Assessing the Defenses
It's not shaping up to be a particularly high-scoring Wild Card weekend, with two games in particular (Kansas City at Houston and Seattle at Minnesota) currently having projected over/unders of 40 points or fewer. Let's take a look at each of these four defenses and see if there's value to be had.
Houston Texans (vs. Kansas City Chiefs)
| Category | Total | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Sacks | 45 | 5th |
| Interceptions | 14 | 13th (T) |
| Forced fumbles | 12 | 20th (T) |
Houston's run to the playoffs was fueled by seven wins in nine games to close the season, with its defense at the forefront, allowing 10 points or fewer in six of those seven victories. Defensive end J.J. Watt led the NFL with 17.5 sacks, and the team as a whole ranked fifth in that category.
Just one of Kansas City QB Alex Smith's seven interceptions came on the road, with the ever-cautious Smith strafing Houston's defense for 243 yards and three TDs back in Week 1. Still, Houston's defensive form has improved greatly since opening the season at 3-5.
Kansas City may not score much, but it's hard to imagine Houston forcing too many turnovers, the lifeblood of defensive fantasy points.
Verdict: NO DEAL
Kansas City Chiefs (at Houston Texans)
| Category | Total | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Sacks | 47 | 4th |
| Interceptions | 22 | 2nd |
| Forced fumbles | 13 | 18th (T) |
The Chiefs' defense also fueled a run to the playoffs, with the team ripping off 10 straight wins following a 1-5 start. Only twice in those 10 victories did Kansas City allow 20 or more points, and without a superstar performer like Watt on the roster, the Chiefs relied on a group of seven players who each finished with at least four sacks.
Rookie Marcus Peters led the way with eight interceptions, and figures to draw the assignment of covering WR DeAndre Hopkins, who put together a 111-1521-11 receiving line while ranking third in the NFL in terms of catches and yards.
The Texans aren't especially turnover prone, with QB Brian Hoyer throwing seven interceptions and lead RB Alfred Blue losing only one fumble in 183 carries.
Verdict: NO DEAL. Kansas City's defense is fairly-priced, given its end-of-season form, but it's hard to see significant turnover totals from the Texans.
Seattle Seahawks (at Minnesota Vikings)
| Category | Total | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Sacks | 37 | 17th (T) |
| Interceptions | 14 | 13th (T) |
| Forced fumbles | 18 | 8th (T) |
In Seattle's 38-7 win over the Vikings in Week 13, the defense had four sacks and picked off QB Teddy Bridgewater once, but no defensive TDs factored into that lopsided scoreline. With Minnesota ranking second-last in both passing yards per game (183) and passing TDs (14), there's no reason to think that the Seattle gameplan of bottling up Adrian Peterson and making Bridgewater beat them will significantly change.
A bonus with the Seattle D/ST is the presence of rookie receiver/returner Tyler Lockett, who scored on both punt and kick returns on top of a regular role in the offense.
Verdict: DEAL. Seattle is likely the highest-priced D/ST in most daily fantasy games, but should be able to justify its required outlay, with perhaps a defensive TD in the offing this time.
Minnesota Vikings (vs. Seattle Seahawks)
| Category | Total | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Sacks | 43 | 7th (T) |
| Interceptions | 13 | 17th (T) |
| Forced fumbles | 11 | 23rd (T) |
If Minnesota has a hope of avenging its Week 13 defeat, the defense, specifically a pass rush led by Everson Griffen and his 10.5 sacks, will have to do a lot better than the 38 points it allowed to the Seahawks. Seattle's offensive line did allow 46 sacks, sixth-most in the league, so Griffen and co. should be able to take advantage.
Though Seattle has largely been on an offensive roll in the season's second half, it did suffer a home defeat in Week 16 to the Rams, who sacked QB Russell Wilson four times, intercepted him once and forced two Seahawk fumbles. In Week 17, facing Green Bay for the division title, Minnesota sacked Aaron Rodgers five times, holding him to only one TD pass and containing the Packers' running game.
The likely return of RB Marshawn Lynch may also disrupt Seattle's offensive flow, as the veteran hasn't played since mid-November and was having his worst full season as a Seahawk, averaging 3.8 yards per carry. By comparison, rookie Thomas Rawls was averaging 5.6 YPC before suffering a season-ending ankle injury.
Finally, the return game may offer Minnesota a boost, with WR Cordarrelle Patterson (two kick return TDs) and CB Marcus Sherels (one punt return score) threats.
Verdict: DEAL. Minnesota is the only one of these four defenses that can be considered bargain-priced; it represents a high-upside play that's likely to have low ownership.