Italy cannot afford complacency with manageable Group E draw
Italy's problem in Euro 2016 is that the easiest groups can turn into the toughest, while the toughest can bring out the best in the four-time world champion.
In Group E, the Azzurri have a combination of the difficult and the obvious. They should qualify for the Round of 16, even if No. 1 Belgium, battling Ireland, and unpredictable Sweden offer challenges, but what awaits in the latter rounds is daunting. Antonio Conte's men could play Germany as early as the quarterfinals and Spain in the semis on the way to a possible second consecutive berth in the final.
In other words, the Italians' chances of doing significant damage in this tournament are a lot worse than they look at first sight.
Related - Euro 2016 draw, Group E: Belgium, Italy headline tough draw
To repeat their performances in Euro 2012, Italy mustn't allow any room for doubt. Unfortunately, after an underwhelming campaign, there are a lot of them.
"We have to be careful," Conte said after the draw.
How Italy will score is among the chief concerns. It managed just 16 goals in qualifying, tied for the lowest with Northern Ireland among European nations who finished first in their groups and played 10 matches.
Graziano Pelle is the best striker Conte has available, and Sebastian Giovinco should flank him as long as he keeps scoring in Major League Soccer. Mario Balotelli, Italy's hit man in the previous continental tournament, may not even be at this one.
Beyond that, there are few answers.
Defending is no longer the gold standard for Italy, despite a familiar backline of Juventus men. And the midfield only has Marco Verratti as its creative engine, even if a diminished Andrea Pirlo finds a way to get to France.
There are weaknesses here. But that doesn't mean Italy cannot put together any kind of run. Conte is an incredible motivator who has only enjoyed fleeting moments with this squad, two weeks at a time during the international windows. He and his team thrive when his players are completely under his control.
He was disappointed in February when Serie A clubs declined to release players for a week of training with the national team, and has held out hope that the Italian league would give him the support to do his job.
While that is still yet to come, his Italy remains unbeaten in competitive matches - even if it produced several discouraging results in qualifying, including narrow 1-0 wins against Malta and Bulgaria.
But Conte's men cannot expect to advance far in Euro 2016 if they produce such dull results, especially against opposition with the ability to punish mistakes. Belgium has an abundance of attacking firepower, Sweden has Zlatan Ibrahimovic, and Ireland has an undying work ethic.
Getting past that stage will require more than just an average of one goal a match, and balance all around. Getting any further than that in the competition will call for something truly special.