Permutations: How Arsenal, Chelsea, United can make Champions League last 16
Manchester City is the only English side to have secured its spot in the Champions League knockout stages, leaving the hopes of progression for Arsenal, Chelsea, and Manchester United hanging in the balance.
Here's how each team can progress to the round of 16:
Arsenal
Group F:
| # | Team | Played | Goal difference | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich | 5 | 14 | 12 |
| 2 | Olympiacos | 5 | -4 | 9 |
| 3 | Arsenal | 5 | -1 | 6 |
| 4 | Dinamo Zagreb | 5 | -9 | 3 |
Arsenal is still in with a chance of progressing to the round of 16, but will have to win and score at least twice in Piraeus, Greece on Wednesday.
When there is an equality of points in the group stages, the next criteria for which team finishes highest goes to which team fared the best when the two sides met. With Olympiacos grabbing an unlikely 3-2 win at the Emirates in September, the Gunners can match this result to win given its superior goal difference in the group as a whole.
A 1-0 win will not do for Arsene Wenger's squad. It would mean both Arsenal and Olympiacos had both scored four goals each in their two matches, but the latter's three goals away from home would trump the former's one. 2-0 will do though, as that would mean Arsenal would have outscored its opponent 5-4.
Wenger needs some goals midweek, and an abacus.
Prediction: Progression - Arsenal finishes 2nd
Chelsea
Group G:
| # | Team | Played | Goal difference | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chelsea | 5 | 8 | 10 |
| 2 | FC Porto | 5 | 3 | 10 |
| 3 | Dynamo Kyiv | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| 4 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 5 | -14 | 0 |
Chelsea was handed the easiest draw out of all the English teams in the Champions League but, like most things this season, Jose Mourinho's side has made a meal of it.
FC Porto trumped Chelsea 2-1 in the second matchday of Group G, meaning a draw between the pair on Wednesday would be enough for the Portuguese side to clinch first. Second would be secured for Chelsea, however, given that it took four points from Dynamo Kyiv.
A 1-0 win to Chelsea would also see it remain in second as Porto will have outscored the Blues 3-2 in their matches. Only a 2-1 win or better will be enough for the west London club to sit atop the group.
Prediction: Progression - Chelsea finishes 1st
Manchester United
Group B:
| # | Teams | Played | Goal difference | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wolfsburg | 5 | 2 | 9 |
| 2 | Manchester United | 5 | 1 | 8 |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 5 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | CSKA Moscow | 5 | -3 | 4 |
Manchester United is in trouble. Louis van Gaal's side has its fate in its own hands, but Wolfsburg away is a difficult proposition - especially when PSV Eindhoven welcomes bottom-dwelling CSKA Moscow.
A draw would not be enough for United if PSV wins, so with a depleted side it must look for a win at the Volkswagen Arena - or keep its fingers crossed that CSKA can do it a favour.
Prediction: Elimination - Manchester United finishes 3rd