5 teams that will be worse in 2016
Remember how the St. Louis Cardinals won 100 regular-season games last summer? Or how the Los Angeles Dodgers secured a third straight division title? Surely, you recall watching the Kansas City Royals win their first World Series championship since 1985, right? Well, all of that is history now, so quit dwelling on the past.
With that said, let's look ahead to the 2016 campaign and examine five clubs that could drop off a bit this year following, at worst, respectable showings in 2015:
St. Louis Cardinals
2015 record (run differential): 100-62 (+122)
Unenthused about the possibility of having dinner at 5:00 p.m. for the next few years, Jason Heyward reportedly turned down a $200-million offer from the Cardinals, who, as he so diplomatically insinuated, are getting older. Though Cardinals manager Mike Matheny wasn't pleased with his comments, Heyward isn't wrong. Matt Holliday turns 36 next month, Yadier Molina, who will celebrate his 34th birthday just before the All-Star break, recently underwent a second operation on his troublesome left thumb, and Adam Wainwright (35) missed most of last season with an Achilles injury.
Their rotation remains strong, even with John Lackey gone and Lance Lynn recovering from Tommy John surgery - but with a lineup comprised mostly of post-prime veterans and inexperienced youngsters, their reign atop the NL Central may end this summer.
Kansas City Royals:
2015 record (run differential): 95-67 (+83)
With the exception of five forgettable regular-season starts from Johnny Cueto, and a groin injury that sidelined Alex Gordon for most of the second half, pretty much everything went swimmingly for the Royals in 2015. They weren't exceptional at the plate, and their rotation was actually among the worst in the AL, but the eventual World Series champions managed to outperform their Pythagorean record (by five wins) by relying on their elite bullpen and the game's most opportunistic offense.
| Clutch* (MLB rank) | AVG. w/RISP | LOB% |
|---|---|---|
| 5.05 (1st) | .282 (2nd) | 75% (T-3rd) |
Regression to the mean isn't the only factor that could spoil the party in 2016, though, as the reigning champs also lost Cueto and Ben Zobrist to the open market earlier this offseason, and remain a longshot to re-sign Gordon.
Los Angeles Dodgers
2015 record (run differential): 92-70 (+72)
As currently constituted, the Dodgers are probably going to be pretty good in 2016, but Andrew Friedman is still entrusting rookie manager Dave Roberts with a roster characterized by question marks. Can Yasiel Puig stay healthy and productive? Is Corey Seager ready to play shortstop everyday at the MLB level? Does Joc Pederson deserve to start in center field, or should Kike Hernandez get the job? With so much uncertainty in the lineup, and a reconstituted rotation missing Zack Greinke and marred by durability concerns, it's not unreasonable to expect the Dodgers to regress a bit in 2016, especially in their revitalized division.
Los Angeles Angels
2015 record (run differential): 85-77 (-14)
Last season, even with Trout once again leading the league in WAR, the Angels managed their worst run differential in a half-decade behind a mostly mediocre staff and a lineup littered with black holes. Most of Billy Eppler's nascent moves as GM, however, haven't really improved the offense that posted the lowest OBP in the league after the All-Star break, nor have they bolstered a rotation that saw Jered Weaver, Hector Santiago, and Matt Shoemaker each post a FIP of at least 16 percent worse than league average.
| Player | Projected OPS | Player | Projected OPS | Differential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrelton Simmons | .675 | Erick Aybar | .680 | -.005 |
| Yunel Escobar | .687 | David Freese | .730 | -.043 |
Remember how Los Angeles' left fielders combined to hit .212/.272/.302 in 2015, too? Well, there's no guarantee that'll improve this season, either, with Todd Cunningham - and his .543 OPS over 47 career MLB games - tentatively poised to handle the position. The Angels were a pretty bad team in 2015 (despite what their record might suggest), and they haven't gotten any better this winter. They've just gotten older.
Baltimore Orioles
2015 record (run differential): 81-81 (+20)
The Orioles' success this past summer was predicated largely on the contributions of three players: Manny Machado, Chris Davis, and Adam Jones. Without them, frankly, Baltimore would've been a replacement-level team, as the other 30 position players that spent time on the 25-man roster combined for less than five percent of the team's total WAR in 2015.
Even if Matt Wieters can stay healthy, and newcomers Mark Trumbo and Hyun-soo Kim enjoy reasonably productive seasons, the three probably won't match Davis' value. Despite Davis' monster season, the Orioles still didn't win more often than they lost, and with both him and Wei-Yin Chen expected to wear different jerseys in 2016, there's a good chance the upcoming summer is a rough one in Baltimore.