DFS: Don't Believe the Hype - Week 12 Edition
Here are three Week 11 heroes that should be faded in Week 12:
QB Jameis Winston, Buccaneers (at Colts)
Winston had a career game last Sunday, racking up 246 yards, with five touchdowns and zero interceptions. There is a slight problem. While he returned incredible value, it doesn't indicate that everything just suddenly clicked and will continue to do so.
From Week 4 through Week 9, Winston managed to throw six TDs total. He paired this with six interceptions. To be fair, four of those picks came in a single, disastrous game. What's more likely is that Winston will put up decent games with the potential to be invisible. His salary will likely climb in the coming weeks and the chances of him returning great value will diminish.
RB Thomas Rawls, Seahawks (vs. Steelers)
You won't get another performance from Rawls like the one he put up in Week 11. With Marshawn Lynch likely out several weeks, Rawls could definitely be productive, and his DFS salary has not gone up much, yet. To expect him to repeat his annihilation of the 49ers is putting too much stock in him.
In three of four games where he was given more than 15 touches, he hit the century mark. He's not a fluke. There is talent. But the question is whether or not he'll continue this pace. No. The Steelers have allowed the occasional big ground game, but they often limit opponents. Pittsburgh is far more susceptible to the pass.
Still, Rawls is cheap enough to roster but don't be surprised when he disappoints.
WR J.J. Nelson, Cardinals (at 49ers)
It's always tempting when a player, seemingly out of nowhere, bursts onto the field. Last week would have been the right game to take a deep flier on Nelson. He only got targets because Michael Floyd sat out with a hamstring injury. Nelson was a healthy scratch in Week 10 and had only been targeted eight times all season prior to Week 11 (compared to six against Cincinnati).
The Cardinals still belong to Larry Fitzgerald, who was targeted 13 times. Nelson will likely play a larger role than he did before Floyd's injury if he misses more time, but he's far from a must-play.