DFS: Short-Term Forecast - Bismack Biyombo
With center Jonas Valanciunas expected to miss approximately six weeks with a hand injury, backup Bismack Biyombo assumed the starting role in Sunday's win over the Clippers.
In a season-high 31 minutes, the Congolese big man grabbed 14 rebounds and scored six points. Biyombo has never averaged better than 5.2 points per game in a single season, so he clearly won't come to close to replacing the 12.7 points that Valanciunas was averaging before his injury, but matching the Lithuanian center's 9.3 rebounds should be easily within reach.
Valanciunas and Biyombo lead the Raptors with nearly identical rebound rates of 19.6 and 19.5 per cent, respectively. The Raptors' next-highest qualified leader is starting PF Luis Scola, at 15.5 per cent.
For context, Detroit's Andre Drummond has a league-leading rebound rate of 26.2 per cent; he unsurprisingly tops the NBA at 17.6 rebounds per game.
As long as Biyombo receives starter's minutes, he's going to average close to 10 rebounds per game, as there's really no one on the team liable to steal them away as long as Valanciunas is out.
The best comparison for Biyombo is likely Cleveland's Tristan Thompson, who he'll face Wednesday in Toronto. Thompson is averaging 10.1 rebounds per game in 26.5 minutes this season, while scoring 7.8 points and only attempting 5.4 field goals.
Despite being much better paid and playing for a championship contender, Thompson is similar to Biyombo in that they both do the dirty work needed to free up their more offensive-minded teammates.
If there's a concern for Biyombo, it's his ability to stay on the court; he's averaging 2.7 personal fouls in only 17.7 minutes this season. Typically, a reserve likely knows he can be more aggressive in limited minutes, so it's reasonable to expect Biyombo to be more judicious with his fouling now that he's expected to shoulder a heavier workload.
For DFS purposes, rebounds are as important as any other counting stat, and it won't take more than a few dunks or putbacks for Biyombo to return excellent value on his current backup-level price.
Aside from Thompson, Toronto's upcoming schedule pits it against teams with true big men in Washington's Marcin Gortat and Nene, Phoenix's Tyson Chandler and Atlanta's Al Horford, so there's little danger of the Raptors going small and relegating Biyombo to the bench.