DFS - Four Elite to Avoid in Week 12
Here are the top four elite options to avoid for DFS purposes in Week 12:
QB Tom Brady, Patriots (at Broncos)
Brady is the best QB in DFS. The Patriots are undefeated and could realistically run the table until the postseason. He's also the most expensive QB by a fair margin in Week 12. Brady has been next to matchup-proof, but the Broncos are too tough against the pass and Brady was stifled by Buffalo on Monday, proving he is human and not some football android.
Denver still hasn't allowed a 300-yard passing game and likely won't in Week 12, either. Spend down to find better value.
RB Devonta Freeman, Falcons (vs. Vikings)
Early reports seem confident Freeman will be able to play after suffering a concussion in Week 11. Since bursting on the scene in Week 3, Freeman has killed opposing defenses. His DFS salary has risen alongside his early production, and while he hasn't performed as well, in a fantasy context, since Week 6, his price has continued to rise.
Freeman's upcoming production is too uncertain following a head injury to expect him to return the appropriate value relative to his cost. If he unloads, fine, but it's not worth the risk.
WR Antonio Brown, Steelers (at Seahawks)
Brown is as good as it gets, and about as pricey, too. Prior to the Steelers' Week 11 bye, he recorded his two best weeks of the season. He was so good in Week 9 that he didn't need a TD reception to crush the DFS landscape. Two TDs the following week make him look like a must-pick no matter what.
Week 12 is probably the only time DFSers should fade him for the rest of the season. The Seahawks, despite their struggles, are still too good a defensive unit. Larry Fitzgerald lit them up in Week 10, but he cost a fair bit less than Brown. The other high priced WRs have much easier matchups in Week 12.
TE Rob Gronkowski, Patriots (at Broncos)
Gronk is amazing. He has returned value almost every week, but he still hasn't had a single game as good as opening week. He cost less then than he has in every subsequent week, so it could be argued that he's seen diminishing returns. This was most apparent in a two-reception performance against the Bills in Week 11.
And while he is still the cream of the crop, the gap has closed slightly. It's a better bet to save salary on cheaper TEs and spend on elite WRs or QBs.