DFS: The Slate, Part 2: A Detailed Look at the Week 10 Schedule
Here's a breakdown of the late-Sunday and Monday slate of games (click here for Part I; all times ET):
Minnesota Vikings at Oakland Raiders, 4:05 p.m.
Line: Raiders -3 (opened at -3)
O/U: 43 1/2 (opened at 43 1/2)
Weather: Chance of rain, 58 F; WNW wind @ 17 mph
Vikings QB Teddy Bridgewater may yet evolve into a top-tier quarterback - but it isn't happening this season; as a DFS option, he should be avoided this week. ... RB Adrian Peterson should see plenty of work against a Raiders run defense allowing the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game; he's playable in all formats by virtue of his ability to break off a 70-yard run at any time. ... WR Stefon Diggs stumbled in Week 9, but remains the Vikings' top receiving option and should see 9+ targets against the Raiders. He's still cheap enough to warrant a cash-game play, and is a terrific GPP option. ... Mike Wallace is too inconsistent to trust. ... Raiders QB Derek Carr should be able to reach value easily despite Minnesota's stout defense; his upside may not reach the levels of the past few weeks, but he's a strong play in all formats. ... RB Latavius Murray has cleared concussion protocol, and is a solid play in a game in which Oakland will look to establish the run. ... WRs Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree have become virtually interchangeable; Cooper still carries the higher upside (making him a stronger GPP play) while Crabtree has emerged as the possession receiver (and more viable cash-game option). Crabtree is still cheaper, giving him a slight edge overall.
Prediction: Raiders 24, Vikings 20
DFS MVP: Derek Carr
New England Patriots at New York Giants, 4:25 p.m.
Line: Patriots -7 (opened at -7 1/2)
O/U: 53 1/2 (opened at 55)
Weather: Clear, 59 F; WSW wind @ 9 mph
You won't find a more reliable source of QB points than Tom Brady, who is an all-format lock against a leaky Giants run defense. Brady is the best quarterback in football. ... RB LeGarrette Blount is a terrific choice in all games, with the Patriots likely to run the ball more in Dion Lewis's absence. Don't expect either James White or Brandon Bolden to make much of an impact. ... WR Julian Edelman remains a top-flight DFS play, but Brandon LaFell could cut into his targets further; LaFell is a GPP option himself, and a Brady-LaFell stack would allow you to save money over a Brady-Edelman pairing. ... TE Rob Gronkowski is the best TE option in the league this week, but a justifiable fade candidate if you'd rather not spend up at the position. ... Giants QB Eli Manning will get his chances in what should be a shootout; he's more of a GPP option than a cash-game play, but you couldn't be faulted for using him in either. ... It's shaping up to be a Shane Vereen week, making him the only reliable option in the New York backfield. Manning will need to throw a bunch, and Vereen is far and away the Giants' top receiving back. ... WR Odell Beckham Jr. will be the primary focus of the Patriots' defensive game plan. That will limit his ceiling, though his floor remains among the highest at his position. Use him comfortably in cash games, but look for better options in tournaments. ... Rueben Randle doesn't have enough upside for GPPs, and is priced aggressively enough to be a cash-game fade.
Prediction: Patriots 34, Giants 27
DFS MVP: Tom Brady
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos, 4:25 p.m.
Line: Broncos -3 1/2 (opened at -7)
O/U: 42 (opened at 42 1/2)
Weather: Clear, 61 F; SSE wind @ 3 mph
Chiefs QB Alex Smith threw for 191 yards and two interceptions in his first meeting of the season with the Broncos - and that game was in Kansas City. Stay far, far away from him this week. ... RB Charcandrick West has had two terrific games in a row, but neither of them were on the road against Denver. He's not a great cash-game play, though his salary and workload make him a decent GPP flier on the off-chance he scores. ... The only Kansas City pass catcher worth rostering is TE Travis Kelce, who is an every-week option but will struggle to reach GPP-calibre value. WR Jeremy Maclin went 4-57 in his first encounter with the Broncos, and is a strong fade play this week. ... Broncos QB Peyton Manning has been shockingly unreliable as a DFS option in 2015; this is especially true at home, where he has posted a 728/1/4 line in three games. Even in a plus encounter with the defensively challenged Chiefs, you can do better. ... RBs Ronnie Hillman and C.J. Anderson continue to work in a committee, with no clear indication of who is primed for a bigger day. Avoid them both. ... WRs Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are close to evenly priced and equally capable of having a big game - but with Sanders (ankle) a game-time decision. Thomas could be in for a huge game against the Chiefs' wonky secondary. Monitor this situation closely. ... TEs Owen Daniels and Vernon Davis can't be relied upon in DFS - at least, in Davis' case, not yet.
Prediction: Broncos 23, Chiefs 13
DFS MVP: Demaryius Thomas
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks, 8:30 p.m.
Line: Seahawks -3 (opened at -3)
O/U: 43 1/2 (opened at 45)
Weather: Rain showers, 47 F; W wind @ 3 mph
Cardinals QB Carson Palmer is a recommended fade this week against a Seahawks defense that appears to have found its footing, limiting San Francisco and Dallas to a combined 172 passing yards while racking up seven sacks in back-to-back victories prior to the Week 9 bye. ... RB Chris Johnson faces off against a Seattle run defense allowing just 3.8 YPC. He'll see plenty of volume, but is a GPP-only play. ... WR Larry Fitzgerald is too expensive to trust this week. You can find better options at a similar or lower price point. ... Michael Floyd is a stronger play given his lower salary, but he's limited to boom-or-bust GPP status. ... Seahawks QB Russell Wilson has been sacked a league-high 31 times, but should have room to breathe against a Cardinals pass rush that has been surprisingly docile. That said, temper your expectations and stick to tournament-only play. ... RB Marshawn Lynch is no longer the unstoppable force he once was - and faces a daunting matchup against Arizona's second-ranked run defense. Lynch sees enough work to be viable in cash games and GPPs, but there are better options at his salary. ... TE Jimmy Graham is in for a rough day, with the Cardinals allowing the third-fewest points per week to opposing tight ends. Avoid him this week.
Prediction: Seahawks 17, Cardinals 13
DFS MVP: Russell Wilson
Monday
Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals, 8:30 p.m.
Line: Bengals -11 (opened at -10 1/2)
O/U: 47 (opened at 47)
Weather: Overcast, 54 F; E wind @ 4 mph
Texans QB Brian Hoyer will need to air it out if Houston has any chance of keeping up with Cincinnati; for this reason, he's an intriguing GPP play and might even earn cash-game consideration as a contrarian option. ... RBs Alfred Blue and Jonathan Grimes are non-factors and should be avoided. ... WR DeAndre Hopkins will comfortably extend his streak of games with double-digit targets, and should return significant value in all formats despite his hefty price tag. ... the return of Cecil Shorts III will negate any value Nate Washington had, making both high-risk GPP-only plays. ... QB Andy Dalton is a terrific play across all formats this week, with one of the highest floors at his position. ... RBs Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard are game-flow dependent; this one feels like a Hill game, with the Bengals expected to pull away and run the clock into submission in the second half. Neither is a great cash-game option, but a case could be made for either to be used in GPPs. ... WR A.J. Green and TE Tyler Eifert are both elite plays Monday, and can comfortably be rostered in cash games and tournaments.
Prediction: Bengals 31, Texans 20
DFS MVP: Andy Dalton