DFS: Deal or No Deal - Getting the Maximum for the Minimum
Whether it's due to budgetary constraints or the desire to find a deep sleeper, extracting value from minimum-priced selections is a key to GPP success.
While all low-priced players with a regular workload are likely to provide a positive return of some sort, that doesn't mean they're all wise choices. Let's take a look at some players who are at or near the minimum price in most DFS games for this week, and decide whether or not they can fill a hole in a tournament play lineup.
QB Matt Cassel, Cowboys (at Buccaneers)
In his third start in relief of Brandon Weeden, Cassel racked up 299 passing yards and three TDs while adding 17 yards on the ground. For the Cowboys, the end result was the same as in every game started by a QB other than Tony Romo this season, but the performance surely opened the door for DFS players to consider Cassel as a budget-priced option going forward, right?
While having WR Dez Bryant back at full health certainly helps, as does a matchup against a Tampa Bay secondary that's allowed the second-most touchdown passes, the problem isn't so much Cassel as it is the very deep QB position. There is no shortage of low-priced QBs who rack up the yards and TDs despite their team's lack of success.
Other QBs at or near the minimum in most DFS games this week include Josh McCown, Kirk Cousins or Jay Cutler, all of whom either have a better track record than Cassel or a favorable predicted gameflow. Cassel may have a decent game, but his ceiling is somewhat limited.
Verdict: NO DEAL
RB James White, Patriots (at Giants)
With Dion Lewis being placed on injured reserve this week with a torn ACL, White is believed to be the logical choice to fill the passing-down back role. While Bill Belichick has been known to zig when he's expected to zag with regard to running backs, it's telling that when Lewis missed Week 7's win over the Jets due to injury, White was activated in his place.
White was targeted five times in that game, catching three passes for 26 yards, as New England completely eschewed the ground game to the tune of a 54:9 pass-run ratio.
White should be at or near the minimum in most DFS games, and with the Patriots' offense having reinvented itself to emphasize getting the ball out quicker since its two Super Bowl losses to the Giants, don't expect its game plan to change much in what amounts to a belated revenge game.
Verdict: DEAL
Vernon Davis, Broncos (vs. Chiefs)
The trade deadline acquisition from San Francisco made a limited Broncos debut Sunday, only playing a handful of snaps and failing to catch a pass in the loss to Indianapolis. Meanwhile, fellow tight end Owen Daniels had by far his biggest game of the season, catching six passes for 102 yards and a TD.
Denver is throwing an average of 38 times per game and; perhaps due to QB Peyton Manning's declining arm strength, no qualifying Broncos receiving option is averaging more than 13.9 yards per reception.
Davis was surely brought aboard to add another intermediate option to the mix, but considering his best game with the 49ers in the season's first half consisted of a five-catch, 62-yard Week 2 performance against Pittsburgh, expectations should perhaps be tempered, especially considering he's not stepping into the high-octane Denver offense of recent memory.
It's hard to argue with the price, and it wouldn't take much to return value on a minimum price, especially in PPR-scoring formats. It's likely best to monitor Davis' progress this week in hopes of reading glowing reports that he's "learning the playbook" and is "looking forward to playing a larger role against Kansas City." It's admittedly a risk, but Davis is a worthy gamble this week.
Verdict: DEAL