DFS: The Slate, Part II: A Detailed Look at the Week 9 Schedule
Here's a look at the late-Sunday and Monday slate of games (click here for Part I; all times ET):
New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 4:05 p.m.
Line: Buccaneers +1 1/2 (opened at +2 1/2)
O/U: 49 (opened at 47)
Weather: Chance of rain, 80 F; SSE wind @ 5 mph
Giants QB Eli Manning rewarded DFS players handsomely in Week 8, chucking a career-best six TD passes. Don't expect a repeat, but Manning does have a plus matchup against a Buccaneers secondary that has an ugly 17:4 TD:INT ratio. Manning is a safe play in cash games. ... Don't bother messing with the Giants' backfield situation this week. ... WR Odell Beckham Jr. was electric in New Orleans, snagging three TD passes. He's a high-floor, high-ceiling, all-format choice this week and should find the end zone again. ... A banged-up Rueben Randle ceded targets to Dwayne Harris, who caught two TD passes. Neither is worth rostering this week. ... Bucs QB Jameis Winston has been terrific the past three weeks, throwing four TD passes with zero interceptions. He has his best matchup of the season against a Giants pass defense allowing the most yards in the league and failing to generate any pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Play him in all formats. ... RB Doug Martin is Pro Football Focus's No. 1 running back through eight weeks. He should see plenty of touches in this one, making him terrific value for his salary. ... For as good as Winston and Martin look this week, WR Mike Evans is the best bet of all. With the Bucs' receiving corps banged up, Evans might be the only healthy and viable option available; he should feast on New York's lowly secondary. Roster him everywhere. ... TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins remains an injury question mark; if he plays, he's a great GPP option.
Prediction: Giants 27, Buccaneers 24
DFS MVP: Mike Evans
Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers, 4:05 p.m.
Line: 49ers +7 1/2 (opened at +4)
O/U: 43 1/2 (opened at 45)
Weather: Mostly cloudy, 60 F; SSW wind @ 3 mph
Falcons QB Matt Ryan should have the ball in his hands a lot Sunday; what he does with it will determine whether he's a viable DFS option the rest of the way. If he can't torch the 49ers for multiple TDs this week, he should be ignored. As it stands, he's a GPP flier this week. ... RB Devonta Freeman will get all the work he can handle until this one gets out of hand; roster him in all formats, but understand that he may not see the field in the fourth quarter. ... Tevin Coleman is the ultimate contrarian tournament option for anyone who believes that the Falcons will rest Freeman when the game is settled. ... WR Julio Jones will score at least once; his floor is high, but game flow restricts his upside. Tread with caution. ... TE Jacob Tamme is a GPP option as one of Ryan's top short/intermediate options. ... Here are San Francisco's probable key offensive players for Week 9: QB Brandon Weeden, RBs Kendall Gaskins, Pierre Thomas and Shaun Draughn, WRs Torrey Smith and Quinton Patton and TE Vance McDonald. Roster any of them at your peril; this team will struggle to move the ball all afternoon, and will likely wind up being a colossal DFS wasteland. Find better options.
Prediction: Falcons 34, 49ers 9
DFS MVP: Devonta Freeman
Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts, 4:25 p.m.
Line: Colts +3 1/2 (opened at +3)
O/U: 45 (opened at 45)
Weather: Clear, 48 F; E wind @ 3 mph
Peyton Manning is back! Okay, perhaps he isn't back, but his Week 8 showing was a step in the right direction; that said, he still has a 2:8 TD:INT ratio over the past four weeks and is a GPP-only play this week. ... RBs Ronnie Hillman and C.J. Anderson have plus matchups against a leaky Colts run defense; Hillman is still in line to see more work, making him the stronger choice in both formats. ... WRs Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders will both see plenty of work, as usual; Thomas is still the better choice by virtue of volume, while Sanders is more touchdown-dependent and therefore more difficult to trust. ... New TE Vernon Davis is ineligible on some DFS sites, and can't be trusted anyhow without knowing his role in the offense. ... Colts QB Andrew Luck couldn't have asked for a worse matchup as he looks to turn around a rough season; the Broncos have the best defense in football, and will force Luck into mistakes that limit his DFS upside. Avoid him this week. ... RB Frank Gore will struggle to make a dent in Denver's stout run defense; he's a tournament-only play, as game flow suggests the Colts will need to pass a lot in order to keep pace. ... WR T.Y. Hilton's status is looking bleaker by the day; even if he plays, he's a DFS non-factor this week. ... Donte Moncrief and Andre Johnson are tournament-only options thanks to positive expected game flow - but don't expect much against that Broncos pass D.
Prediction: Broncos 27, Colts 17
DFS MVP: Demaryius Thomas
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys, 8:30 p.m.
Line: Cowboys +3 (opened at +2 1/2)
O/U: 43 1/2 (opened at 44 1/2)
Weather: Dome
Coming off a much-needed bye, Eagles QB Sam Bradford faces a difficult matchup against a Cowboys pass defense that has allowed just eight touchdowns; Bradford threw for 224 yards with a TD and three interceptions in their first meeting, and simply can't be trusted in DFS this week. ... RB DeMarco Murray has averaged nearly 20 carries in his past three games; if he gets there Sunday, he should be able to truck Dallas's so-so run D. Murray is a strong play across all formats, and should be extra motivated against his former team. ... Philadelphia pass catchers are a risky bunch in Dallas, and should be avoided across the board. ... Cowboys QB Matt Cassel is far from the best low-salary option at the position; look elsewhere. ... RB Darren McFadden is the clear-cut No. 1 option, and volume alone makes him a decent play in all formats. His breakout potential is there, but Philadelphia has surrendered only three rushing scores. ... WR Dez Bryant is angry - and with good reason, as he saw just six targets in his first game back from a foot injury. He'll be the focal point of the Cowboys' offense Sunday, making him a solid contrarian option in GPPs. ... TE Jason Witten had just four targets last week and hasn't scored since Week 1. He's severely overpriced.
Prediction: Eagles 23, Cowboys 20
DFS MVP: DeMarco Murray
Monday
Chicago Bears at San Diego Chargers, 8:30 p.m.
Line: Chargers -4 (opened at -4)
O/U: 49 (opened at 50)
Weather: Mostly cloudy, 62 F; W wind @ 9 mph
It's the kind of game Bears QB Jay Cutler loves best: A projected shootout in which he's the underdog. Expect Smokin' Jay to throw 40+ passes in this one, making him a viable option in either format. ... RB Jeremy Langford gets the call in place of the injured Matt Forte, and has a juicy matchup against a Chargers defense that ranks among the league's worst against the run. With Langford the only trustworthy back in Chicago, he'll see 20+ touches - and return significant value as a result. ... WR Alshon Jeffery is a WR1 priced on most DFS sites like a WR2; Chicago will need to throw a ton, making him one of the top picks of the week in any format. ... TE Martellus Bennett has had exactly one great week all season; he can't be trusted, especially at his current price tag. ... Chargers QB Philip Rivers has exceeded value five straight weeks - and not even a season-ending injury to WR Keenan Allen will prevent him from extending that run against the visiting Bears. Roster him with confidence in all formats. ... RB Melvin Gordon is a non-factor in DFS. ... Danny Woodhead should see extra work in Allen's absence, increasing his floor to suitable cash-game levels. He's not an advisable play in GPPs. ... WR Stevie Johnson is the biggest beneficiary of the roster shakeup, assuming Allen's role as the possession receiver. Johnson is in for a big day at a small salary, making him a sensational option across all formats. ... WR Malcom Floyd remains the deep threat, but is too inconsistent to trust. ... TE Antonio Gates is a must-play if healthy; monitor his status throughout the week.
Prediction: Chargers 31, Bears 27
DFS MVP: Stevie Johnson