DFS: The Slate, Part I - A Detailed Look at the Week 7 Schedule
Here's a breakdown of Sunday's early slate of games (London game excluded; click here for Part II; all times ET):
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Redskins, 1 p.m.
Line: Redskins -3 (opened at -3 1/2)
O/U: 42 (opened at 44)
Weather: Chance of rain, 66 F; NW wind @ 5 mph
Buccaneers QB Jameis Winston may have a few big games in his rookie year, but this likely won't be one of them; the Redskins pass defense is better than many thought it would be, and Winston struggled in his previous two road games this season. ... RB Doug Martin has been a force in his past two games, and is a good bet to keep the run going against a Washington run defense that is allowing 4.6 YPC. He's a solid play in all formats. ... WR Mike Evans has been strangely silent since returning to action, and can't be trusted in a tough road tilt. ... Vincent Jackson has 20 catches in five games - and 10 came in one contest. Avoid him in this one. ... Redskins QB Kirk Cousins has been picked off twice in three of his last four games; he just isn't very good, and won't win you any DFS contests. ... RB Alfred Morris is averaging 3.5 YPC and hasn't scored a touchdown. He and Matt Jones are a mess, and should be left unowned. ... WR Pierre Garcon has two TDs in three weeks, but has a surprisingly low ceiling for a possession receiver doubling as his team's default No. 1; he's a risky pick in either format. ... TE Jordan Reed returns to the field this week, and should see a wealth of targets; his salary has dipped just enough to make him a borderline cash-game play.
Prediction: Buccaneers 23, Redskins 20
DFS MVP: Doug Martin
Atlanta Falcons at Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m.
Line: Falcons -5 (opened at -3 1/2)
O/U: 45 1/2 (opened at 47 1/2)
Weather: Chance of rain, 64 F; NE wind @ 3 mph
Falcons QB Matt Ryan has yet to return elite value this season, though he has been consistent; he's a strong cash-play candidate against the Titans this week, but there will be better options in GPPs. ... No player in the league is as hot as RB Devonta Freeman, who is a locked-in weekly star in all formats. ... WR Julio Jones has seen his production take a significant hit over the past three weeks, and isn't a recommended cash-game play this week. Pair him with Ryan in tournaments, but you do so at your peril in the event Freeman hogs the scores. ... None of the other Falcons receivers are worth rostering. ... Zach Mettenberger gets the call at QB with Marcus Mariota injured and should be avoided altogether. ... The Tennessee running back situation is an utter disaster; steer clear. ... WR Kendall Wright is a much better play with Mariota under center, but might still be worth a GPP flier if Mettenberger gets the call ... the same can be said for TE Delanie Walker; both players should see volume no matter who throws the ball.
Prediction: Falcons 24, Titans 20
DFS MVP: Devonta Freeman
New Orleans Saints at Indianapolis Colts, 1 p.m.
Line: Colts -5 1/2 (opened at -6)
O/U: 52 1/2 (opened at 52 1/2)
Weather: Dome
Saints QB Drew Brees is what many thought he would be: a yardage machine with fewer touchdown passes than in previous years. Expect a similar result in Week 7 against the Colts, making him a decent cash-game option but a low-ceiling GPP play. ... RB Mark Ingram has had only one subpar week to date, and faces a plus matchup Sunday. Fire him up in all formats as a dual-threat back who should see 20+ touches. ... WR Brandin Cooks has ceded the role of No. 1 receiver to Willie Snead, who has been more consistent since moving into a starting role; neither is a particularly attractive option, though Snead appears to have the higher ceiling. ... TE Benjamin Watson blew up last week, but that is likely his high point for the season; he's still not a recommended option. ... After struggling through the early part of the season, Colts QB Andrew Luck erupted for 312 yards and three scores last week - and now gets a visiting Saints team that has allowed 11 passing touchdowns and a 65.8% completion rate. This may be the last week you get Luck at any semblance of a discount, so pounce. ... RB Frank Gore is only worth rostering if he scores a TD; he should be avoided this week. ... WR T.Y. Hilton is a little pricey for his production, though he's consistent; a stack with Luck wouldn't be the worst idea in a GPP. ... Donte Moncrief hasn't been as reliable on a week-to-week basis, but is a better Luck stack option than Hilton because of his lower price tag and similar ceiling.
Prediction: Colts 31, Saints 24
DFS MVP: Andrew Luck
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions, 1 p.m.
Line: Pick (opened at -2 1/2)
O/U: 44 1/2 (opened at 44 1/2)
Weather: Dome
Vikings QB Teddy Bridgewater just isn't a very good daily fantasy option, even against wonky pass defenses. Steer clear. ... RB Adrian Peterson was surprisingly ineffective last week, but should remedy that against a Lions run defense that has surrendered 11 touchdowns already. ... WRs Mike Wallace and Stefon Diggs have seen nearly identical targets the past two weeks; Diggs has gone for 13-216-0 while Wallace has posted a 10-106-1 stat line. Both players are worth consideration in both formats, though choosing between them may come down to a coin flip. ... TE Kyle Rudolph is too TD-dependent to be trusted. ... Lions QB Matthew Stafford won some trusting DFS players an awful lot of money last week with his 405-yard, four-TD effort against Chicago; facing a much heartier Vikings defense, don't expect a repeat. ... Detroit has just nine red-zone carries by running backs through six games. This crew is a sorry one, and shouldn't be rostered. ... WR Calvin Johnson may be at the beginning of one of his ridiculous runs, having gone off for 6-166-1 in Week 6. Stafford's limitations will always keep Johnson's ceiling down, but he's a great option in both formats this week. ... Golden Tate and TE Eric Ebron are solid options, but their ceilings will be low; Ebron is the better GPP play of the two.
Prediction: Vikings 23, Lions 20
DFS MVP: Adrian Peterson
Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs, 1 p.m.
Line: Chiefs -3 1/2 (opened at -2)
O/U: 41 1/2 (opened at 43)
Weather: Clear, 61 F; E wind @ 3 mph
With Ben Roethlisberger not quite ready to return, the Steelers will lean on Landry Jones at QB this week; he led a spirited rally in his NFL debut last week, and faces a plus matchup against a horrid Chiefs pass defense. He'll be a popular punt play, and is a good bet to return value. ... Jones will undoubtedly heavily on RB Le'Veon Bell, who is primed for a bounceback after collecting "only" 88 yards last week. Bell is pricey, but has a sky-high ceiling and should be used in all cash games. ... WR Antonio Brown may not say it aloud, but he has to be happy to see someone other than Mike Vick slinging the ball. Brown went from stud to afterthought in Vick's three-week stint, and is a sneaky value play with a depressed salary and a new QB in the fold. ... Martavis Bryant was the immediate beneficiary of Jones' promotion, but it's hard to know if that will extend to Week 7. He's a GPP play, but should be avoided in cash games. ... Chiefs QB Alex Smith threw three TD passes in Week 1; he has three TD passes in five weeks since. Stay away. ... RB Charcandrick West still has a firm hold on the No. 1 job, but another effort like Week 6 (9-33-0, lost fumble) and he may lose work to Knile Davis. Neither player is worth consideration. ... With RB Jeremy Maclin (concussion) expected to miss Week 7, DFS eyes will be on Albert Wilson; he carries a low price tag, making him a decent cash-game punt or GPP roster filler. ... TE Travis Kelce should see all the targets he can handle, making him one of the top options of the week at the position.
Prediction: Chiefs 23, Steelers 21
DFS MVP: Travis Kelce
Cleveland Browns at St. Louis Rams, 1 p.m.
Line: Rams -6 (opened at -4 1/2)
O/U: 43 1/2 (opened at 42 1/2)
Weather: Dome
We'll find out just how good Browns QB Josh McCown really is, as the Rams' elite pass defense awaits him; he's priced well enough to take a chance on in GPPs, but the matchup is just too tough for him to be a cash-game option. ... RBs Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson Jr. negate each other's value, making them DFS non-factors. ... WR Travis Benjamin has morphed into the Browns' No. 1 option, and makes for an intriguing stack play with McCown. ... TE Gary Barnidge is in a similar position, though his price is somewhat prohibitive compared to the rest of the options at his position. No longer the best-kept secret in DFS, Barnidge isn't a great option this week. ... Rams QB Nick Foles has been mostly dreadful this season, and isn't a recommended play against a tough Browns pass defense. ... RB Todd Gurley has looked super-human in back-to-back weeks, and now gets to face a Browns run defense allowing five yards per carry. Add in a bargain salary on most sites, and Gurley will be the industry's highest-owed GPP running back. Fade him if you dare, but he's in line for a huge week. ... None of the Rams' pass catchers can be trusted.
Prediction: Rams 24, Browns 20
DFS MVP: Todd Gurley
Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m.
Line: Dolphins -4 (opened at -5)
O/U: 45 1/2 (opened at 43)
Weather: Chance of rain, 84 F; E wind @ 12 mph
Texans QB Brian Hoyer has been sensational in back-to-back weeks, averaging more than 300 yards with five touchdowns; whether or not you believe in the Dolphins' defensive turnaround, Hoyer is worth a GPP look and is in the conversation in cash games, as well. ... RB Arian Foster's role in the passing game has overshadowed his troubles on the ground; that said, it's only a matter of time before Foster breaks out, and that performance may come against a Miami defense allowing 4.3 YPC. ... WR DeAndre Hopkins, he of the 90 targets in six games, is a lock in all formats. ... Nate Washington returns to action this week, and will line up as the No. 2 receiver. Given how Hoyer has involved pass-catchers other than Hopkins, Washington makes for an interesting contrarian option. ... Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill didn't look any different than he had prior to Joe Philbin's firing; he's an unreliable DFS option. ... RB Lamar Miller, on the other hand, had the shackles taken off - and rewarded new head coach Dan Campbell with a 19-113-1 line. He's still at a discounted price, and should reach value despite facing a tough Houston defense. ... WR Jarvis Landry had a subpar showing saved by a TD rush last week; he's still a target monster and a cash-game stud. ... Rishard Matthews has had 6-115, 6-113-2 and 6-85 showings the past four games; he'll have duds, but he's a terrific GPP option. ... TE Jordan Cameron doesn't see enough volume to be a viable DFS play.
Prediction: Dolphins 27, Texans 21
DFS MVP: Jarvis Landry
New York Jets at New England Patriots, 1 p.m.
Line: Patriots -7 (opened at -10)
O/U: 47 (opened at 49)
Weather: Chance of rain, 59 F; SW wind @ 6 mph
Jets QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has had one of the highest floors of any low-salary pass-throwers; this week should be no exception, as he'll need to find some way to keep pace with the high-flying Patriots. He's a solid cheap play in both formats. ... RB Chris Ivory should, in theory, feast against a New England defense allowing 4.9 YPC - but if the Pats get up early, Ivory may not see the volume of carries to which he's accustomed. He's rosterable in both formats, but comes with some game flow risk. ... WR Brandon Marshall is enjoying the best run of his career, and is a great bet to continue that in one of the highest-scoring games of the week. Roster him with confidence - and don't be afraid to go with teammate Eric Decker if you're looking for salary relief. Decker has been a TD machine so far. ... QB Tom Brady carries a sky-high price tag this week; the Jets have played New England tough in each of their past four meetings, and bring the league's top defense to Foxboro. If ever there was a good time to fade Brady, this is it. ... RBs LeGarrette Blount and Dion Lewis continue to split time depending on game flow; New England is favored to win this one in a walk, suggesting Blount is a strong play as a clock-killing GPP-only option. We have our doubts. ... WR Julian Edelman and TE Rob Gronkowski, like Brady, are priced with little consideration to the opponent, and should be faded.
Prediction: Patriots 23, Jets 20
DFS MVP: Brandon Marshall