DFS: Pacing Yourself - The Value in Teams That Play Faster Than Others

One of the many factors you may use when selecting a DFS basketball lineup is to consider the pace of the teams around the league.

This isn’t just an eye test judgment of one team seemingly playing faster than another - the NBA officially tracks pace, which is defined as the average number of possessions a team has per 48 minutes. (Pace can be found in NBA.com’s sortable database).

In a companion article, we’ll look more in depth at teams known for playing at fast paces, but let’s examine what differences in pace mean for daily fantasy purposes. 2014-15’s top team in this regard was the Golden State Warriors, who averaged 100.69 possessions per 48 minutes. The Utah Jazz ranked at the bottom, with a figure of 92.78.

Were you selecting a player from either Golden State or Utah, the extra possessions per game averaged by the Warriors provide a chance at eight more baskets or trips to the free throw line, though turnovers or missed shots can be expected on some of those opportunities. Aside from the extra points that can come from a fast pace, selecting a Warrior offers more assist opportunities, especially given the team’s focus on ball movement.

Racing down the court and looking to find open shooters allows teams to take advantage of defenses that aren’t yet set up, which perhaps explains why Golden State ranked second in assist rate (approximately 66 per cent of its field goals were assisted, rather than coming on “isolation” plays.) The Jazz, by contrast, ranked 24th, assisting on 56.3 per cent of its field goals.

Rostering players facing the Warriors, Rockets or other clubs that play at a fast pace can also have benefits for DFS purposes. Increased opportunities for steals or rebounds exist on those extra defensive stands, and there’s always the possibility that the faster-paced team forces the slower one out of its comfort zone, making it take quicker shots in an attempt to keep up.

There are a few caveats; since players almost never play the full 48 minutes, no player will be able to take full advantage of all the extra possessions his team may have. As well, the decision to pick a player from the high-scoring, defending NBA champions or the Utah Jazz isn't one that likely needs a lot of number crunching to rationalize.