DFS: How to Decode Streaks and Slumps

When considering whether to pick a player for your lineup, most players will take a quick look at that player's game log, a quick and fast snap shot of recent performance.

Game logs reinforce the notion of hot streaks and slumps by presenting game-by-game stats in one convenient location, making it easy to see when a star has a streak of 30-point games, or when a point guard has been struggling to rack up assists of late.

The game logs show important predictors of future success, such as shot attempts, field-goal accuracy and minutes played but they strip a lot of context necessary in making great DFS decisions.

A DFS player might fade a star because of a perceived slump, categorized by several games with a low point total, inefficient field-goal accuracy or low periphery statistics. Unfortunately, game logs on their own leave out key information such as opposing defenders, player versus team splits and the opposing teams' strategies.

Simply put, it's important to research beyond the game log to understand the root of a streak so that you can either exploit or fade a player.

Sometimes longer trends emerge that don't fade after a handful of games. There can be major changes outside of a player's bad luck or opponents that can dramatically effect their DFS outlook for a prolonged period of time.

Below are some real-life examples of current players who saw their value rise or fall, with some tips on how to keep an eye on similar season-long streaks this upcoming season.

A Sudden Role Change

Perhaps the most famous hot streak for a previously unknown player in recent history, Linsanity took the league by storm in February of 2012.

Contrary to belief, Jeremy Lin's ascendancy had little to do with going on a hot scoring streak. In reality, he owed a lot of his success to his competition for minutes falling by the wayside. Baron Davis was struggling with major injuries. Iman Shumpert was a rookie and ineffective in big minutes. Mike Bibby was so bad that he essentially played himself out of a job.

For a Knicks team heading to the playoffs, what did coach Mike d'Antoni have to lose by giving Lin a shot?

D'Antoni gave Lin a starting role, providing the unheralded guard with a huge jump in playing time from nine minutes per game to 34. Lin's shooting accuracy didn't magically improve; he simply began to receive more shot attempts because he was on the floor more often.

When midseason hits and starters begin to lose their grasp on their roles, look for cheap bench players that receive a similar bump in playing time. Also be aware of the team's roster makeup; not only did Lin receive more playing time, he got to play alongside veterans like Carmelo Anthony and Tyson Chandler. It was the perfect situation to allow Lin to become fantasy-relevant.

The Lingering Injury

Raptors PG Kyle Lowry was a deserving All-Star in 2015, bulldogging the Raptors to a franchise best record despite missing 2014 All-Star DeMar DeRozan for much of the first-half. Unfortunately, Toronto's over-reliance on Lowry in DeRozan's absence meant heavy usage for a player with a track record of poor conditioning.

While nagging injuries piled up, the Raptors had no choice but to continue to ride Lowry; the team's slip mirrored that of their star point guard. Here are Lowry's per-game stats by month from last season:

After putting up tremendous numbers in heavy minutes, Lowry hit a wall in February, putting up his worst numbers in points, rebounds and assists.

Balanced teams that rely on steady performances from several players can withstand the loss of a key contributor in the short-term but over-usage has its toll - such as torpedoing the lineups of Lowry's DFS owners in February.

Often, a streak or slump is simply an aberration that happens over the course of a long season; you can count on things regressing to the mean sooner rather than later. But be aware of situations where a streak might be the first signs of a longer trend; short-term DFS impact is hard to predict but you can take long-term impact to the bank.