DFS: How to Set a Point Target - and Hit it

Setting a point target - and hitting it - is a basic strategy to think about, yet it is used far too infrequently by newcomers to daily fantasy sports.

Even inexperienced owners understand they need to have the proper number of low cost options to fit in with one or two top tier stars, but they don't necessarily think about what they need out of those players.

Cash games and GPPs require vastly different types of lineups - and they need to be constructed with different mindsets. Here's what to consider when putting together either roster type:

Cash Game Roster Construction

In either major type of cash game - 50/50s or head-to-heads - half the field doubles its entry fee. This means that a winning roster only has to be better than half of the entries. It doesn't matter how close to first place a lineup finishes, as long as it is within that top half of the field.

Thanks to basketball's relative predictably, it's easy enough to assemble a lineup with safety in mind. A basic understanding of the Vegas lines for a game as well as an understanding of the projected game flow will allow for a prediction of any given player's expected workload. Workload/minutes directly translates into production, and production equals fantasy points.

When constructing a cash-game lineup, target players with relatively high floors. It doesn't necessarily matter what their ceiling may be, as long as they're a safe bet to reach value.

Consider, for example, bench players thrust into starting roles vacated by star players. The low-cost backup may not have a high ceiling, but could finish with a fantasy point total well above their regular average, due to the increased playing time.

All players in a cash-game lineup should be facing soft defenses. Avoid any matchup that may cause a player to be unable to reach his floor. Stay away any player or team with an injury concern. And fade both sides of any projected lopsided game, as playing time will be hard to predict.

Memphis Grizzlies C Marc Gasol is an excellent example of a cash-game player. He's a near sure bet to reach his season averages in points and rebounds in any given night; he's the focal point of his offense, meaning he'll always have a high workload. He'll frequently reach the double-double bonus, providing some extra value even if he doesn't star in either category.

GPP Roster Construction

A much smaller percentage of entries in GPPs will win money - think 10-30%. As such, scoring generally needs to be much higher for a winning lineup. This requires more risk-taking as opposed to playing it safe.

Owners shouldn't care what a player's floor for production is, as that likely won't be good enough to place among the winners. Rosters need to be assembled with only a player's ceiling in mind.

Point targets will vary by site due to player pricing, scoring and the quality of competition, but six-to-seven times value should the be the general goal. More can and should be expected from cheaper players, while the high end players typically only to need reach two or three times value. Here are how the different pricing tiers should be expected to perform:

Here are some keys to maximizing the allotted salary cap and increasing the potential for fantasy scoring:

Don't Fade Value

More than in any other daily fantasy sport, there is a direct correlation between minutes and production in fantasy basketball. Also, with few exceptions there is really very little difference between a starting-caliber player and his backup.

Even when the difference in talent is dramatic, it doesn't necessarily matter. Offenses that include All-Star players are built entirely around those players. If they're to miss time due to injury or some other reason, the backup will be required to step into the large role.

The value of a minimum- or near-minimum-cost backup player producing starter-level statistics is too sure of a thing to risk fading. Unless the backup is known to be incapable of handling the role, it's best to just accept what's handed to you.

Aim For Bonuses

Most DFS sites award bonuses for double-doubles and triple-doubles. The majority of targeted players should have a reasonable chance of reaching at least the double-double bonus. Whether it be for points and assists, points and rebounds or even rebounds and assists. Triple-doubles are far more difficult to obtain, and therefore tougher to predict, but at least one star player with a chance should be targeted.

Choose Star Players Carefully

Star players don't need to outperform their expected value as greatly as the value plays in GPPs. Most importantly, the star players just aren't allowed to miss. Additionally, on nights with several big stars in action, it's important to have the one star the fewest other owners have.

The best way to accomplish this is by selecting the star player who seems to have the most difficult matchup. The league's top offensive players are rarely shut down, and they could even boost their own production when their teammates struggle.

With most owners likely to shy away from the stars facing the best defensive teams, those are the ones to target. Having Oklahoma City Thunder F Kevin Durant in a tough matchup against the San Antonio Spurs instead of Cleveland Cavaliers F LeBron James in a juicy matchup against the Denver Nuggets can be the difference maker in a large GPP.

Using Durant to separate from the bulk of owners who took LeBron, will be the difference at the top of a leaderboard, with both players likely to post similar fantasy point totals. This way having the correct value plays will be the difference between first, and a tie for second place.