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DFS: Tom Brady and the Bye Week

Maddie Meyer / Getty Images Sport / Getty

The last thing an opposing defense wants to give Tom Brady is time. The longer you give Brady's brain an opportunity to run through the infinite permutations of an NFL offense, the better chance he has to expose even the slightest flaw in the coverage.

Enter the Dallas Cowboys, who have not only caught an injury bug verging on plague but must now host the New England Patriots in Week 5. Coming off their bye week, the reigning champs will have had 14 days to prepare for Dallas.

Again: the last thing you want to give Tom Brady is time.

Brady has played 13 regular-season games coming off a bye week in his career, averaging 247.5 yards per game in those contests and 283.6 yards per game since 2007. He sports a TD/interception ratio of 2.6:1; for comparison's sake, Peyton Manning has a 2.2:1 TD/INT ratio for his entire career.

With extra rest and more time to prepare, it isn't wrong to assume that one of the greatest QBs of all time would be even better after a bye week. It's like giving Usain Bolt a head start in the 100-meter sprint.

In reality, Brady is actually a little worse after a bye - but just barely.

T. BRADY YARDS PER GAME TD/INT Win %
After Bye 247.5 2.6:1 76.9%
Career 256.5 2.8:1 77.6%

It's a testament to how incredible Brady and the Patriots have been in the past 15 years that even the slightest dip in stats can become a cause for concern.

Perhaps it's a matter of defenses having more time to gameplan against him, though it's unclear why extra preparation would favor defenses and not Brady, one of the most meticulous watchers of game film in the league. It's taken Brady 14 years in the NFL to hone his instinct and ability; how can a defense hope to match that, even with the extra week off?

For DFS purposes, there are still some red flags that might suggest you look elsewhere for your fantasy QB for Week 5. Judging by the number of big leads among that 13-game sample, it's likely that Brady simply hasn't had to air the ball out as often late in the game, leading to fewer scoring opportunities. That would account for the slightly lower TD/INT ratio.

The Cowboys feature a middling pass defense and an offense limited by injuries that might struggle to maintain possession. In their first three games, the Patriots have established comfortable first-half leads through the passing game before easing back on Brady's workload.

In the second half of their blowout of the Jaguars, Pats' coach Bill Belichick reigned in the passing attack and gave the running backs like LeGarrette Blount key red zone carries. Greatness is expected from Brady on a weekly basis but there's no reason to overuse the 38-year-old veteran when the game's already in hand.

That could be the case in Week 5 in Dallas. If the Cowboys can't keep the score close, it won't matter how much Brady studied the opposing defense because the Pats will be in clock-killing mode. DFS players can still expect 300 yards and multiple TDs, but cheaper options will return more value.

Only one other team had a Week 4 bye: the Titans. Rookie QB Marcus Mariota has looked poised beyond his years but an early bye will still give his coaches an opportunity to correct any hitches in his game that have shown up so far.

The 2-2 Bills had hopes for a playoff appearance this year and need to take care of a young Titans team to establish some momentum. Look for Rex Ryan's defense to test Mariota with heavy blitzing - and look for Ken Whisenhunt's offense to respond with a barrage short passes.

Given Mariota's athleticism, versatility and extra practice time, it wouldn't be surprising to see a couple of trick plays in this game. Fans will recall another time Buffalo and Tennessee faced off - when the Titans won their January 8, 2000 playoff game on the 75-yard kick return dubbed the Music City Miracle.

This will be the best defense Mariota has faced to date; don't expect another big game from the freshman. Instead, look for value in a safety-valve like TE Delanie Walker, still generally priced outside the top-10 DFS TEs. Avoid the Titans' RB committee as it's still largely unpredictable, with the bye week providing more questions than answers with regard to potential usage.

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