DFS: The Slate, Part II - A Detailed Look at the Week 4 Schedule
Here's a breakdown of the late-Sunday and Monday slate of games (click here for Part I; all times ET):
Cleveland Browns at San Diego Chargers, 4:05 p.m.
Line: Chargers -5 (opened -7)
O/U: 44 1/2 (opened 44 1/2)
Weather: Rain showers, 72 F; SW wind @ 10 mph
Browns QB Josh McCown had a strong game against Oakland in Week 3, but looks overmatched in a cross-country tilt with the Chargers. Avoid him. ... RB Isaiah Crowell has a tenuous grip on the starting job, with rookie Duke Johnson breathing down his neck. Neither is a strong play in a tough road game. ... WR Travis Benjamin has outperformed his salary in every week so far - but the odds of him scoring a TD in Week 4 are remote. He's worth a shot in GPPs, if only because ownership should be low. ... Ditto TE Gary Barnidge, who came out of nowhere to have a sensational Week 3 but is unlikely to come anywhere close to that output this time around. ... Chargers QB Philip Rivers is a fool's-gold proposition this week; his pass-first offense is geared toward punishing weak visiting opponents, but the Browns' pass defense is elite (even if it hasn't shown it quite yet) and should limit Rivers' ceiling. ... Cue the Melvin Gordon breakout. Combine the Browns' dreadful run defense with a game the Chargers should have well in hand, and the stage is set for Gordon to rack up the points. Fire him up in all formats. ... WR Keenan Allen's topsy-turvy season went topsy again in Week 3, as he compiled 18 targets against Minnesota. With San Diego expected to employ a more run-heavy approach, anticipate a much smaller total Sunday.
Prediction: Chargers 24, Browns 10
DFS MVP: Melvin Gordon
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers, 4:25 p.m.
Line: Packers -7 1/2 (opened -8 1/2)
O/U: 48 (opened 47 1/2)
Weather: Partly cloudy, 77 F; NNW wind @ 6 mph
Fresh off a five-touchdown performance on Monday Night Football, Packers QB Aaron Rodgers is salivating at a matchup with a San Francisco defense that has little hope of containing him. He's the top QB option of the week. ... RB Eddie Lacy is slowly returning to full health, and will be given plenty of work in a game that shouldn't be close. ... WRs Randall Cobb and James Jones are all-format plays, while Ty Montgomery is an intriguing tournament option with Davante Adams out. Green Bay uses three-receiver sets 99 percent of the time - so Montgomery will see plenty of action. ... 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick is over his four-INT showing from a week ago, and is an interesting contrarian play in a game where he'll need to throw early and often. ... RB Carlos Hyde won't be a factor if the game goes as expected. Leave him alone this week. ... WRs Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin are decent combo options, with Smith the stronger option due to a higher TD potential. Again, this game should see plenty of Kaepernick passes.
Prediction: Packers 38, 49ers 20
DFS MVP: Aaron Rodgers
St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals, 4:25 p.m.
Line: Cardinals -7 1/2 (opened -6)
O/U: 43 1/2 (opened 42)
Weather: Dome
The Rams' offense will be put to the test this week; here's betting QB Nick Foles and Co. struggle mightily against a Cardinals defense allowing a paltry 211 passing yards per game. ... The St. Louis rushing game is among the worst in the league through three games, and won't see much relief in Arizona. Avoid the Rams' backfield this week. ... The only receiver worth consideration is TE Jared Cook, who had a quiet game in Week 3 but is Foles' safest option and should see plenty of looks as the Rams look to move the ball with some regularity. He's a solid cash-game punt option. ... Yes, Cardinals QB Carson Palmer has had a bit of a soft schedule so far, but he remains one of the top pass-throwers in the league and is a must-own in all formats - particularly on sites where his price remains a bargain. ... RB Chris Johnson had a sensational Week 3, and the Rams can be run on. That said, he's only a tournament play. ... WR Larry Fitzgerald is the uncontested No. 1 option in Arizona, and that makes him a terrific combo play with Palmer in both cash games and GPPs. ... John Brown has been inconsistent, and can't be trusted outside of tournaments.
Prediction: Cardinals 27, Rams 17
DFS MVP: Carson Palmer
Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos, 4:25 p.m.
Line: Broncos -6 1/2 (opened -6 1/2)
O/U: 43 (opened 43 1/2)
Weather: Mostly cloudy, 63 F; NE wind @ 4 mph
Vikings QB Teddy Bridgewater passed for a total of 274 yards in home games against Detroit and San Diego. On the road against a Denver defense limiting foes to 176 passing yards per game, Bridgewater is unrosterable. ... What rust? RB Adrian Peterson looks as good as he has at any point in his career, and has a high floor Sunday. There may be players with higher ceilings at his price point, but Peterson is a great cash-game play. ... Don't trust anyone in the Minnesota receiving corps this week. ... Broncos QB Peyton Manning has shaken off a rough opening week - thanks in no small part to an adjustment in how the offense is run; he's a terrific play against a Vikings defense that could wind up spending a lot of time on the field. ... The Denver running game will continue to flow through C.J. Anderson; Minnesota is allowing 4.3 yards per carry but has surrendered just two touchdowns. Anderson is tournament-worthy but should be avoided in cash games. ... WRs Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas are both chalk plays, with Sanders getting a slight nudge due to a cheaper price and better defensive matchup.
Prediction: Broncos 24, Vikings 13
DFS MVP: Emmanuel Sanders
Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints, 8:30 p.m.
Line: Saints -3 1/2 (opened at -3 1/2)
O/U: 47 1/2 (opened at 47)
Weather: Dome
As a game manager, Cowboys QB Brandon Weeden has proven himself more useful than many believed he would be; as a DFS option, he's mediocre. Dallas is going to try and beat the Saints on the ground, so avoid him. ... The running back carousel continues unabated, with Joseph Randle the best rushing option, Lance Dunbar the receiving back of choice and Darren McFadden playing second fiddle in both roles. Randle is a strong cash-game choice, while Dunbar is a decent GPP flier. ... The only receiving option worth trusting here is TE Jason Witten, though his low ceiling prevents him from being a worthwhile DFS play. ... Saints QB Drew Brees may return from a shoulder injury this week, but isn't a strong play even if he does. His salary is just too high. ... RB Mark Ingram should expect a difficult time of it against a surprisingly stout Dallas run defense. His floor is decent enough to trust in cash games, but he's a big tournament risk. ... The Saints vow to get C.J. Spiller more involved in the offense; take a GPP chance on him if you believe the coaching staff, but understand the immense risk involved. ... WR Brandin Cooks is the only pass-catcher worth trusting; he makes for a GPP-only option no matter who is throwing him the ball.
Prediction: Cowboys 27, Saints 20
DFS MVP: Joseph Randle
Monday
Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks, 8:30 p.m.
Line: Seahawks -10 (opened -10)
O/U: 43 (opened 42 1/2)
Weather: Clear, 67 F; N wind @ 6 mph
Lions QB Matthew Stafford carries a 5:5 TD-to-interception ratio into Seattle this week; expect the latter total to climb by at least two against a formidable Seahawks defense. He's not a DFS option this week. ... RB Ameer Abdullah has just 21 carries through three games, but that total could skyrocket if Joique Bell misses the game due to injury. If Abdullah is the bell cow, he's worth a GPP shot; if not, there's nobody in the Detroit backfield worth trusting. ... WR Calvin Johnson likely won't do enough to justify his huge price tag, while Golden Tate represents an intriguing tournament option if Seattle game plans to take Johnson out of the game. ... TE Eric Ebron isn't a good play this week. ... Seahawks QB Russell Wilson has been efficient so far this season, but that hasn't translated to DFS glory. Expect the same thing this week: A decent output but nothing that will win you cash games or GPPs. ... RB Marshawn Lynch will not play due to a hamstring injury, which thrusts Thomas Rawls into relevance. Pounce on Rawls as a FLEX option. ... TE Jimmy Graham is the receiver to target - and he should have a field day against a Lions defense that has allowed three TDs to tight ends in 2015.
Prediction: Seahawks 24, Lions 10
DFS MVP: Jimmy Graham