DFS: Basic NHL Strategy - Using the Schedule to Your Advantage
The NHL schedule is a fickle beast, offering up its share of back-to-backs and lengthy road trips that leave teams fatigued and out of sorts over the 6 1/2-month campaign.
And when it comes to daily fantasy, teams’ schedule pain can be your DFS gain - in a big way.
The advantages provided by studying each team’s scheduling situation - and choosing players based on those situations - are numerous. They go beyond simple strong-vs.-weak matchups - most savvy NHL fans know that a high-scoring team will fare well against a bottom-dwelling team more often than not - and delve into which teams are good plays based on their sked.
What you’re doing, in essence, is choosing players based not only on their overall strength, but on the schedule-influenced weakness of the other team.
Here are some key situations to look out for when identifying schedule advantages:
The back-to-back: Most teams will play more than a dozen back-to-back sets in a given season. You’ll want to target players facing that team on the second night of the back-to-back - not only will that team often play its backup netminder, it will also be more tired.
The cross-continent trip: Teams that have to head to the opposite coast for a road trip are prime targets for opposing stars. As a general rule, East Coast teams struggle on the West Coast, and vice versa - though, as always, it depends on both the team and the opponent.
The end of a long trip: Don’t be surprised to see teams struggle in the final game of a long trip (in this instance, referring to any trek of five or more games.) If you’re looking for a great potential lineup stack, don’t hesitate to go against any team facing this scenario.
The long layoff: This is a trickier phenomenon to handicap. Some teams use long breaks to recover from injury or work on new offensive or defensive systems, making them dangerous clubs to oppose. Conversely, some teams look sluggish coming off a longer layoff.
The weather delay: Hockey is the preeminent winter sport - and that means travel problems due to heavy snowfall. This doesn’t happen often, but when it does, it can play major havoc with a team’s sleep and practice plan. Take advantage by snagging players on the other team.
The “string”: Teams that wind up out of playoff contention are prime targets for opposing teams, since they’re more likely to rest regulars down the stretch in favor of young players they can evaluate. They’re also “playing” for a better draft slot, so winning isn’t a high priority.
You can also use the schedule to determine which players and teams on a given night are good bets for big performances:
The homestand: Simply put, the majority of teams fare better at home than on the road in a given season. Using home/road splits to select individual players isn’t the best approach, but if you’re stuck on two players with similar salaries and skill sets, the home bet is the safer one.
The long layoff: As stated above, this could really go either way - but if you’ve done your homework and identified a team that had injury issues that were resolved by the long break, it may be worth taking a shot on the returning players (who will likely be underpriced).
The playoff race: Teams competing for post-season berths tend to ramp up their effort in the final weeks of the season - and this can give offensive players a boost. Pay particular attention to matchups featuring teams in playoff races taking on clubs that are out of contention.