DFS: Basic NHL Strategy - Extracting Value Using Statistics

Gaining an edge in daily fantasy hockey means being able to expand your research sphere beyond goals, assists, saves and wins.

DFS users don’t need to dig deep into hockey’s treasure trove of advanced statistics to be successful, but it certainly wouldn’t hurt. The more you understand why certain players excel in certain situations, the more likely you’ll be to identify and seize those opportunities in the future.

Other posts have touched on some of the most important categories to consider when choosing your lineup, but this entry will pull together all of the most useful statistics - as well as some you can leave by the wayside.

Statistics You Should Use

Time on Ice (TOI): We’ve referred to ice time in other posts, and it bears repeating: The more ice time a player accrues, the more likely he is to rack up DFS points. This applies to players at all positions - so look for players who spend the most time on the ice and target them.

Time on Ice Per Shift (TOI/S): This is a useful stat for determining which players are given license to take longer shifts. The majority of the forwards at the top of the list are considered offensive lynch pins for their respective teams, and should be targeted heavily in DFS.

Points/60 Minutes (P/60): Measures the efficiency of a player per 60 minutes of playing time. This is particularly useful when mining for bargains, as you can sort through second- and third-line players to find out which ones are most prolific in more limited ice time.

Shots and shot attempts: Most novice DFS players will focus only on players who score - and while those players are certainly valuable, the nature of scoring is extremely unpredictable. Pay attention to shots and shot attempts - they’ll identify which players are most active offensively.

Team power-play percentage: The more successful a team is with the man advantage, the more inclined you should be to seek out players from either of that team’s five-man units. Be sure to consider the opponent’s penalty-killing success rate before committing to any player.

5-on-5 scoring rate: The majority of every hockey game is played at even strength, so you’ll want players who excel under these conditions. Bargains can be had by settling for guys who don’t star on the power play, but are dangerous when the teams are at full strength.

Even strength save percentage: In the same way low-salary players who thrive in 5-on-5 situations are highly sought after, goaltenders who excel at full strength are great choices (though you’ll likely find that the top goalies at 5-on-5 are the top goalies in all situations.)

Statistics You Should Avoid

Last 10 Games: A lot of people rely on hot and cold streaks to make their choices - and that’s one of the biggest mistakes in DFS. Do players get hot or run cold? Certainly. But there’s no way to know how long a streak will last - and even a 10-game run is a small sample size.

Home/Road Splits: Some players perform measurably better in their own arena than they do on the road, but for the most part statistics relating to home/road splits offer little or no value. Favor players at home, but don’t ignore quality options just because they’re playing on the road.

Vs. Opponent Stats: Ever hear someone suggest a player “has a team’s number?” That may seem true given some players’ career stats against certain opponents, but that’s not the best way to go about building a roster; the sample size is small, and past results are non-predictive.

Goals-against average: It has graced the back of millions of hockey cards over the course of the past 100 years, but as a useful DFS stat, goals-against average is far too vague. So many factors go into measuring GAA - and DFS players should research those factors instead.