Which team will pick 1st overall in the 2016 NFL Draft?
If the NFL regular season ended today, the draft order would look like this:
- Cleveland Browns (2-8)
- Tennessee Titans (2-7)
- Baltimore Ravens (2-7)
- San Diego Chargers (2-7)
- Dallas Cowboys (2-7)
- Detroit Lions (2-7)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6)
- San Francisco 49ers (3-6)
- New Orleans Saints (4-6)
- Miami Dolphins (4-5)
If history is any indication, at least one of the teams above will fail to win another game - no team with more than two wins has picked first overall since the Chargers in 2004.
Let's break down each team's chances of picking first overall:
Browns
The Browns hold the tiebreaker in the cluster of two-win teams by virtue of a late bye week and one additional loss. Their remaining schedule is tough. If the Browns are to find a win, it will probably have to come against the Ravens or 49ers. Regardless of whether the Browns turn their offense over to Johnny Manziel, 2-14 is a distinct possibility.
Likelihood of picking 1st: Very high
Titans
After picking second overall a year ago, the Titans are right back in the same unenviable position. The Titans play the Jaguars twice in the next three weeks. Bizarrely, those games will not only impact the order at the top of the draft, but they could factor into the race for the AFC South title.
Likelihood of picking 1st: High
Ravens
The Ravens' Week 10 loss to the Jaguars (which the NFL said should actually have been a win) killed all talk of a late-season push for a wild-card spot. However, the Ravens are too well coached and too experienced to go into a tailspin. Even with a lack of weapons, Joe Flacco can carry this team to at least a couple more wins.
Likelihood of picking 1st: Low
Chargers
Philip Rivers should be good enough to get the Chargers in the win column again this season, but it's hard to overlook how decimated this team has been by injuries. With relocation looming and fans jumping ship, the Chargers could completely implode.
Likelihood of picking 1st: Moderate
Cowboys
The Cowboys are only on this list because of Tony Romo's broken clavicle. He's back now, and the Cowboys still believe they have a chance to make the playoffs. Even if they don't, they'll win enough games to ensure they finish nowhere near the top of this list.
Likelihood of picking 1st: Low
Lions
How big was the Lions' first win in Green Bay since 1991? It rocketed them from the first overall pick to sixth. They still have major holes, however, and losing out is possible - especially if head coach Jim Caldwell loses the locker room.
Likelihood of picking 1st: High
Jaguars
With three wins already, the Jaguars will almost certainly have to lose out - and get some help from the two-win teams - to leap all the way to the first pick. With two games remaining against the Titans, one against the Chargers, and the possibility of one against the Andrew Luck-less Colts, it's more likely the Jaguars move the opposite direction in the draft order.
Likelihood of picking 1st: Moderate
49ers
Blaine Gabbert is the 49ers' starting quarterback. Even with games remaining against the Browns and Lions, 3-13 looms.
Likelihood of picking 1st: Moderate
Saints
The Saints have the NFL's worst defense, but Drew Brees has been good enough to get them to three wins. With a soft upcoming schedule, he'll probably be good enough to get them at least one or two more.
Likelihood of picking 1st: Very low
Dolphins
The Dan Campbell effect seems to be wearing off, but four wins is simply too many to be a realistic candidate for the top pick.
Likelihood of picking 1st: Very low