US Open Men's Preview: 3 things you need to know

With the summer drawing to a close - and with it, Grand Slam season - the tour rolls into Flushing Meadows, NY for the final major of 2015.

Last year's US Open seemed to portend change, but to this point, it's proven to be an aberration. What does this year's iteration hold in store?

Here are three things you need to know about the men's tournament:

Can Federer ride his hyper-aggressive approach to a title?

Roger Federer set the tennis world ablaze last week in Cincinnati with his flawlessly executed revival of old-school, quick-strike net-crashing. The tournament felt like a logical endpoint Federer had been building toward; his approach-game genesis happened some time ago, but the Western & Southern Open provided the stage for its full, demonic realization.

It's tempting to think Federer has uncovered the game's new tactical inefficiency, much like the power-baselining revolution he himself helped consolidate in the early aughts blew up the serve-and-volley game before it. In a way, he's swinging the pendulum even further in the opposite direction - not only serve-and-volleying but return-and-volleying. Whether he's ambushing second serves or chipping and charging, Federer is approaching as early and often as possible - even from the receiving position.

Novak Djokovic wouldn't cop to having been thrown by his opponent's reckless attacking in the Cincinnati final - which Federer won in straight sets - but Djokovic's five double-faults - including one on break point that saw him drop the only service game for either player in the match - suggest Federer planted something in the back of his mind.

That's crucial because recent history tells us Federer can no longer afford to trade body blows from the back of the court with the game's top baseliners, particularly in best-of-fives and particularly on concrete. He hasn't reached the final of a hardcourt major since 2010.

Short points will continue to be Federer's calling card, and they certainly represent his best means of holding Father Time at bay. But his foes will gameplan to neutralize his forward movement, much like Marin Cilic did with his relentless, punishing depth last year. The hardcourts in New York also tend to play quite a bit slower than the ones in Cincy, benefiting defensive-minded baseliners like Djokovic and Andy Murray, who will do their best to extend points and shrink the court.

It'll be interesting to see how opponents adapt; whether they try to conform and beat Federer at his own game (good luck) or push back against it that much more forcefully. The fate of Federer's quest for an 18th major likely hinges on that question.

Last year's final was the exception, not the new rule

Speaking of Cilic, for his second act - after a shocking, ostensibly landscape-altering US Open championship victory last year - the world No. 9 has ... done nothing.

Cilic missed some time due to shoulder issues - including the Australian Open - but even when he's played, there hasn't been even a glimpse of the player who hit his face off for two unforgettable weeks in 2014. He hasn't beaten a single top-10 opponent since, or made it past the semis at any tournament above the 250 level. It's possible a return to Flushing Meadows will stir something in him, but for now his title defense looks primed to be among the least inspiring in memory.

In truth, the whole field is looking pretty closed off, with a clear demarcating line between the trio of favorites - Djokovic, Federer, and Murray - and the rest of the pack (Stan Wawrinka is probably next in line, a half-step ahead of a very muddled middle).

Rafael Nadal won this tournament the last time he played it, but he's fallen on hard times, and to hear him talk about his goals for the fortnight, he's less focused on winning the whole shebang than on finding a modicum of consistency. Last year's other surprise finalist, Kei Nishikori, has clearly been playing hurt. Tomas Berdych has fallen off a cliff after a strong start to the season. Milos Raonic has been a disaster since undergoing foot surgery in the spring. And Nick Kyrgios ... well, you know.

Last year's US Open final seemed like the harbinger of an epochal shift, a precedent for newfound parity in men's tennis. But aside from Nadal's tailspin and Wawrinka going nuclear in Paris, the status quo hasn't changed. This is shaping up as a three-horse race.

Can Murray overcome his hellacious draw?

Murray has a real chance to cap his 2015 resurgence with his first Slam in over two years, but it won't come cheap, as the tough-luck Brit got saddled with a tough-luck draw.

If he can avoid the landmines lurking in Week 1 (he gets the volatile but dangerous Kyrgios in the first round), Murray's reward could be a quarterfinal matchup with Wawrinka, a semifinal against Federer, and a title match against Djokovic. He's dropped his last two matches against Wawrinka, his last five against Federer, and just ended a run of eight straight losses to Djokovic.

Still, if you look at form rather than results, there's every reason to believe Murray - who's had a quietly excellent all-around season - is right there with the world Nos. 1 and 2. His second serve remains a problem, and may get him into some particularly hot water should he see Federer, but every other facet of his game is clicking. He looks as fit and fast as he did before back surgery blew him off course following his historic Wimbledon win in 2013, he's showing confidence in his whole variegated arsenal, and even his court demeanor has improved (a little).

But the most important improvement Murray's made to his game the past year is that he's beefed up his forehand. He's hitting it with purpose and anger, flattening it out with more regularity, and using it to initiate offense, rather than sitting back and relying on his legs and his defense.

Playing aggressive, first-strike tennis is how he finally exorcised his Djokovic demons in Montreal. It'll be the key to making it through his draw in New York.